John Horgan (1) (1953–)

It seems there is a simple statement at the heart of this book: "We're not going to find anything as world-altering as General Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, or Darwinian Evolution in the future." And maybe this is correct. (modulo e.g. resolving dark matter/energy.)

Attached to this is a critique that much of public science communication is just boosterism or "ironic science," as defined by Horgan (which would be 'speculative' science to the rest of us.)

It's hard to argue with either of these. Maybe we will need to replace the standard model to account for dark matter; but that replacement will contain the standard model. QM and GR need to be married, but that marriage will contain QM and GR. Will either of these things be as revolutionary as their predecessors? Horgan argues no, based on some faith and a bit of argument. I'm not so sure, but there is a strong possibility he is right.

Nonetheless, science may be limited in many ways, few of which are ever discussed in pop-science books. This book tries to do that... but fails to be convincing on several fronts.

The first is that while I share some of Horgan's sense of, "Well, this is just BS," in regards to some popular theories/areas/subjects, he doesn't argue that these areas are non-productive so much as he argues that the people promoting/researching in them are "ironic scientists." He also, it seems, caricatures or even... cherry picks... to make his point. (That is my impression; not a fact.) Additionally, he fails to discuss whether the cruft around the edges is normal. Perhaps there is always a certain amount of BS swirling about the edges of 'real' science; perhaps 'ironic' science isn't new or unusual or significant. I think it's easy to forget all the ideas, good and bad and 'not even wrong', left on history's cutting room floor.

Second, the argument that we've found out enough that there simply isn't room left on the map for world shattering discoveries to be hiding is compelling. But that is all. Maybe figuring out what e.g. dark matter is will involve some truly fundamental shift in physics. Maybe there is some deep revelation waiting in network/complexity/brain studies/sciences. Point is, we won't know until it happens. (Though, yes, we can, so to speak, constrain phase space and say it is more an more unlikely when/if 2050, 2100, 2250, 2500 passes and no new discoveries have come.)

Third, even if his point is valid, I'm not sure it's quite the existential crisis he makes it out to be. E.g. terraforming Mars is 'mere engineering', but I'm sure it would absorb a lot of the mental 'spare cycles' of those so inclined. He mentions and kind of dismisses lifespan extension... as if this wouldn't be earth shattering to scientists and lay persons alike, even if not as fundamental in some pure, Platonic sense as e.g. General Relativity.

Horgan also leaves some points just lying on the table. He discusses science becoming too complex for humans but what if it simply becomes too bulky? He could have explored more the idea that as science builds up there is more training required to become an expert who can contribute; already young scientists will be near 30 when finishing their first post-doc, and many will be older if they don't follow a strictly 'standard' educational path. This isn't, strictly speaking, a matter of science; it is at least as much one of pedagogy and perhaps one of human lifespan (so, science/technology.)… (mehr)

Song and dance from start to finish. If Horgan were serious, then this book would evidence only a lack of imagination. But one or two passages, unless plagiarized, suggest that the author is sufficiently knowledgeable and intelligent that he can hardly be thought to believe what he proposes. True, he quotes scientists whose statements appear to support his view, but he must have omitted everything and everyone else who might suggest otherwise.

There is a story, untrue, that someone suggested a hundred years ago that the patent office should be shut down because everything already had been invented. Why does this book remind me of that?… (mehr)