Orrin H. Pilkey

The reality is that I've already picked up a lot of the points the authors make by (dare I say it) osmosis, but if one is looking for a nuts-and-bolts examination of the issues of living by the sea in 21st century America you could do a lot worse than this booklet, which is aimed at the average American homeowner, small businessman, and tax payer. The long-term picture is that many large urban communities in coastal areas are going to be submerged (particularly in Florida); that shouldn't be news at this point. However, the medium-term issue is the inundation of vulnerable infrastructure (roads, harbors, industrial installations, etc.), and that is probably where the United States as a society is really going to get caught out.… (mehr)

In 2005 Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans. It suffered from an immense category five hurricane with 174mph winds combined with a 28 foot storm surge. Safety measures put in place failed, either because of poor design or substandard materials. Two thousand deaths and $100b of damages later it was one of the worst storms ever to hit America.

So far...

To read the rest of this review go rel="nofollow" target="_top">here… (mehr)

Government administrators and policy makers use quantitative mathematical models to form future environmental policies. The authors of this book assert that these models are basically useless, that they lead to policies that make things worse, not better.

These models are filled with assumptions, suppositions and several pure guesses. "Fudge factors" are included to come up with an acceptable answer. Politics is frequently involved. An example is when the Canadian government said that the Grand Banks fishing area was in good condition, when "collapse" was a much more accurate description.

The EPA has required that the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste disposal site must be safe for the public for the next 10,000 years. Based on current models, that is absurd enough, but, in 2004, a federal appeals court ruled that the safety of the repository must be assured for up to one million years. Really? That is longer than Homo Sapiens has existed, and there will be at least one major advance and retreat of glaciers, with corresponding huge changes in climate.

Open pit mines are frequently dug beneath the level of the local groundwater. Constant pumping of water keeps the mine dry. When the mine is abandoned, the local water, filled with all sorts of chemicals from the mine, fills the pit. How to predict things like the balance between inflow and outflow of water from the lake, acid production, and chemical reactions within the new lake?

Perhaps it would be better to say, for instance, "Given current conditions, the ocean level will rise over the next hundred years" instead of "Given current conditions, the ocean level will rise by (a specific number) over the next hundred years." Researchers freely admit that the models are full of flaws, but, until someone comes up with something better, they will continue to use them.

Written for the non-scientist (like yours truly), this book is very thought-provoking, and injects some much needed skepticism. It's a must-read of a book.… (mehr)