Possibility for U.S.-China Military Conflict
ForumInternational Relations
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1Bretzky1
The RAND Corp. recently released a report looking at the next 30 years of U.S.-China relations through the lens of the possibility for military conflict. Their bottom line is that the possibility is basically larger than what is comfortable, but much more likely not to happen than to happen.
Although the report does make a key point that its conclusions are drawn based on an assessment of U.S. and Chinese interests, not on some inherent aversion to conflict existing in Chinese society (à la the "peaceful rise" meme that China keeps disseminating). Interests are of course subject to change, and what keeps states from warring over interests are: 1) either the interests don't clash or 2) neither side believes it is worthwhile fighting over a clashing interest. Neither of those is guaranteed to hold even in the near future between the U.S. and China, let alone beyond 30 years.
Although the report does make a key point that its conclusions are drawn based on an assessment of U.S. and Chinese interests, not on some inherent aversion to conflict existing in Chinese society (à la the "peaceful rise" meme that China keeps disseminating). Interests are of course subject to change, and what keeps states from warring over interests are: 1) either the interests don't clash or 2) neither side believes it is worthwhile fighting over a clashing interest. Neither of those is guaranteed to hold even in the near future between the U.S. and China, let alone beyond 30 years.
