Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 3

ForumPro and Con

Melde dich bei LibraryThing an, um Nachrichten zu schreiben.

Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 3

1margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 24, 2022, 8:45 am

As no doubt the person topping thug Putin's "list", President Zelensky is personally brave and a leader worthy of respect ...

Daniel Dale (CNN, frmr Trump fact-checker) @ddale8 · 9h:
Here’s a partial list of reporters on the ground (Ukraine) and others who know what they’re talking about.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1494327296383021062

2margd
Feb. 24, 2022, 9:30 am

Anti-war solo pickets like this are popping up in cities across Russia. It’s not much but they’re arrested almost immediately, often upon leaving their homes when the cops know to expect them. Here’s Sofya Rusova, co-chair of Russia’s Trade Union of Journalists.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496829730103963650/photo/1 )
- Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock | 7:49 AM · Feb 24, 2022

Her sign says "war with Ukraine is Russia’s disgrace.” She's in the heart of Moscow. She's a Russian journalist. She is highly likely to be arrested. She's brave. #UkraineWar
- Bill Neely @BillNeelyReport | 8:35 AM · Feb 24, 2022

3margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 24, 2022, 9:43 am

Ireland will waive visa requirements for all Ukrainian people who travel to Ireland following the Russian invasion,
the Taoiseach has confirmed
- TheJournal.ie @thejournal_ie | 7:10 AM · Feb 24, 2022

Ukraine has submitted an urgent request for medical aid items, European Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarčič said
He called on European countries to immediately respond with offers of assistance
"The time to help is NOW," he tweeted
- TheJournal.ie @thejournal_ie | 7:47 AM · Feb 24, 2022-

4aspirit
Bearbeitet: Feb. 24, 2022, 10:07 am

Nolan Peterson (war correspondent and book author)
@nolanwpeterson
"Something bad is in the air tonight. We're under a national emergency, airports are shutting down, military reserves have been called up. I lack the talent to express what it feels like to be in this European capital, home to millions..."
8:39 PM · Feb 23, 2022 · Twitter Web App

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1496660970172731392

A tweet thread. Peterson's latest videos show people attempting to leave Kyiv while explosions can be heard in the background.

ETA missing links

5margd
Feb. 24, 2022, 9:55 am

Gazprom just hit 50% down. Half of its value gone in hours.
Table ( https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1496762942989037569/photo/1 )
- Scott Stedman @ScottMStedman | 3:24 AM · Feb 24, 2022

6margd
Feb. 24, 2022, 10:38 am

With the rapid deterioration of the Russia/Ukraine situation, you’re going to hear a lot about SWIFT in the coming days…
Here’s a quick breakdown of what it is and why it matters:

SWIFT is short for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications.
It’s a global cooperative of financial institutions based in Belgium.
It was formed in 1973 when 239 banks from 15 countries came together to establish a way to handle cross-border payments.

Today, SWIFT connects more than 11,000 financial institutions across 200+ countries.
Think of it like a simple email system enabling secure messages across its members.
An average of 40 million messages a day—including orders, payment confirmations, FX exchanges, and trades.

SWIFT doesn’t actually do any transfer or holding of funds, but it’s an critical part of the communication infrastructure that enables cross-border money flows.
It’s a key part of the global financial system’s plumbing, if you will.
So why is it in the spotlight right now?

While not a political organization, it’s importance to global flows means SWIFT is often looked at as a geopolitical tool as part of sanctions packages.
Cutting off a nation’s banks from SWIFT access restricts flows into and out of that nation, resulting in real economic pain.

This happened in 2012 with the sanctions package on Iran in retaliation for it’s nuclear program.
It was looked at in 2013-14 in response to Russia’s actions in Crimea.
Cutting off SWIFT access is viewed as a VERY significant move, so the consideration alone is material.

With Russia’s most recent actions in Ukraine, cutting off SWIFT access is very much “on the table” as part of a sweeping sanctions package.
The challenge is that it is a real double-edged sword.
Russia is a massive economy with tentacles that reach all around the world…

It is an exporter of materials critical to the manufacturing of jet engines, semiconductors, automotives, electronics, and fertilizers.
Cutting off Russia from SWIFT would impact the flow of payments for these industries.

Russia has also been building an in-house system since 2014—the last time SWIFT cutoff was threatened—which may mean they are able to temper some of the impact a cutoff would have on its economy.
Though it appears most experts still expect the impact would be significant.

A cutoff from SWIFT may also have longer-term second-order effects on Bitcoin and non-fiat currencies.
The base logic: Russia may seek to circumvent the impact of the restrictions via a combination of its in-house system and a push away from the USD-reserve currency hegemony.

Whatever happens in the coming days, there will be a lot of talk about SWIFT and its role in the response to Russia’s actions.
I hope this short thread makes you feel more knowledgeable on the subject.
Follow me @SahilBloom for more simple explanations on business and finance.

For more:
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-26/why-swift-s-global-payments-are-s...
https://nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/politics/russia-swift.html
bloomberg.com

- Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom | 9:54 AM · Feb 24, 2022

7margd
Feb. 24, 2022, 10:54 am

Thug Putin loves his polonium: "Russian forces were trying to seize the Chernobyl plant"

Russia attacks Ukraine; peace in Europe ‘shattered’
YURAS KARMANAU, JIM HEINTZ, VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV and DASHA LITVINOVA | Feb 24, 2022

...In a worrying development, Zelenskyy said Russian forces were trying to seize the Chernobyl plant, and a Ukrainian official said Russian shelling hit a radioactive waste repository and an increase in radiation levels was reported. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.

Other governments did not immediately corroborate or confirm the claims.

The plant was the site of the world’s worst nuclear accident when a nuclear reactor exploded in April 1986, spewing radioactive waste across Europe. The plant lies 130 kilometers (80 miles) north of the capital of Kyiv...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-attack-a05e7c4563ac94b963134bba8...

8John5918
Feb. 24, 2022, 11:45 am

Understanding Putin’s narrative about Ukraine is the master key to this crisis (Guardian)

With his incursion into Donetsk and Luhansk, Vladimir Putin has broken international law and destroyed the best negotiating track, the Minsk agreement. That is clear. What is also clear is why he did it...

It is crucially important for those who might seek to end or ameliorate this crisis to first understand his mindset. What happened this week is that Putin lost his patience, and his temper. He is furious with the Ukraine government. He feels it repeatedly rejected the Minsk agreement, which would give the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk substantial autonomy. He is angry with France and Germany, the co-signatories, and the United States, for not pressing Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to implement them. He is equally angry with the Americans for not taking on board Russia’s security concerns about Nato’s expansion and the deployment of offensive missiles close to Russia’s borders. To those who say Nato is entitled to invite any state to join, Putin argues that the “open door” policy is conditioned by a second principle, which Nato states have accepted: namely that the enhancement of a state’s security should not be to the detriment of the security of other states (such as Russia)... From outside the alliance, Putin has seen it expand continually. He says he does not seek a revived Soviet Union but a buffer zone that would be, as he put it in a long essay last year, “not anti-Russia”. John Kennedy wanted a similar cordon sanitaire when Khrushchev tried to put nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962...

Convinced that Nato will never reject Ukraine’s membership, Putin has now taken his own steps to block it. By invading Donetsk and Luhansk, he has created a “frozen conflict”, knowing the alliance cannot admit countries that don’t control all their borders. Frozen conflicts already cripple Georgia and Moldova, which are also split by pro-Russian statelets. Now Ukraine joins the list. There is speculation about what will happen next but from his standpoint, it is not actually necessary to send troops further into the country. He has already taken what he needs.

9Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Feb. 24, 2022, 5:15 pm

Unintended consequences ~ the dominos keep falling

When people voted for Trump in 2016, they unknowingly unleashed a Putin on the other side of the globe. How many countries Putin will invade this year, and going forward, is anybody's guess. He is on a mission.

10John5918
Bearbeitet: Feb. 24, 2022, 11:54 am

>9 Molly3028:

You know, not everything in this world can be reduced to domestic US partisan politics. Putin was there before Trump, and while Trump's policies probably didn't help, Putin works on a much longer time frame than the four years of a US presidential term.

11Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Feb. 24, 2022, 12:01 pm

>10 John5918:

Putin waited many years for an opportune moment just like the white nationalists and white supremacists did here.

12margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 24, 2022, 2:08 pm

Brave Russian protesters + plutocrats losing 33-50% of their wealth + Zelensky = _____?

Pushkin Square, maybe less than 1000 meters from Red Square and the Kremlin, is the (s)ite of a significant protest.
These people know the risks of challenging the regime.
They’re on the street in-spite of major personal costs.
0:08 ( https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1496900368344797184 )

- Alexander S. Vindman (frmr NSC/WH staffer) @AVindman | 12:30 PM · Feb 24, 2022
-----------------------------------------------------------
Note cellphone cameras...

FinanceBanking.x @00000nft | 12:49 PM · Feb 24, 2022:
Russian Police beat women who came out to protest against the war...
0:35 ( https://twitter.com/00000nft/status/1496905206226894856 )
------------------------------------------------------------
Meanwhile in St. Petersburg:

0:08 ( https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496870591483330560 )
- NEXTA@nexta_tv❗️St. #Petersburg now 10:32 AM · Feb 24, 2022
-------------------------------------------------------------

Ukraine’s ambassador to the US just told us that a Russian platoon from the 74th Motorized Brigade has surrendered to Ukraine’s forces. She says that the Russian troops apparently had been unaware they were being sent to kill Ukrainians.
No confirmation yet from Russia’s military
- Josh Lederman @JoshNBCNews | 11:27 AM · Feb 24, 2022
--------------------------------------------------------------

A whole platoon of Russian occupants surrendered to Ukrainian forces near Chernihiv in northern Ukraine,
Ukraine army commander in chief reports.
'No one thought we were going to kill. We thought we were going to gather information', Russian officer reportedly said
Image ( https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1496878993534255104/photo/1 )
- Olga Tokariuk(freelance correspondent Kyiv) @olgatokariuk | 11:05 AM · Feb 24, 2022

13Molly3028
Feb. 24, 2022, 4:17 pm

American's who don't give a damn about what happens in Ukraine most likely don't have ancestors who came here from that area.

14kiparsky
Feb. 24, 2022, 4:29 pm

>13 Molly3028: Or more generally don't understand the fragility of the period of relative peace that we've all lived in over the recent decades, and the costs involved in losing the stability that we've enjoyed in that period.
Not to say that we've been in some sort of edenic serenity, of course, but moving back into a state of active conflict between Russia and Europe is not likely to bode well for anyone, regardless of where their ancestors come from.

15Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Feb. 24, 2022, 5:13 pm

https://www.rawstory.com/tucker-carlson-russia-2656785884/
Kremlin-backed media now broadcasts entire Tucker Carlson monologues with Russian subtitles

***
It appears that Murdoch and the Russians/Putin share an un-American asset on a regular basis.

16margd
Feb. 24, 2022, 6:36 pm

Alexander S. Vindman@AVindman | 5:40 PM · Feb 24, 2022
Audio of Russian warship directing the Ukraine border guards, defending Snake Island—off the Southwest cost of Odessa—to surrender or be fired on. The response from Ukraine, “go screw yourself.”
t.meУкраина Online Новости ВойнаТот момент когда на предложение сложить оружие наши военные послали нах*й русский корабль 🇺🇦Украина Online

olexander scherba @olex_scherba | 4:43 PM · Feb 24, 2022:
And this is the island in Black Sea, where our 13 border guards held their ground under the fire of Russian armada. The whole day. It’s radio silence there now.
Photo of island ( https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1496963906421592065/photo/1 )

olexander scherba🇺🇦@olex_scherba | 5:47 PM · Feb 24, 2022:
Zelensky: today we lost 137 military and civilians, including 10 officers. All defenders of the Snake island are dead.
There have been reports about 11 female soldiers who died after Putin’s missile hit their barracks.

17John5918
Bearbeitet: Feb. 24, 2022, 11:03 pm

War in Europe: Responding to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine (International Crisis Group)

Russia’s belligerence deals a staggering blow to the norm against conquest, which – though sometimes honoured in the breach – has underpinned global affairs since World War II. The rest of the world, and not just the Western powers who thus far have been most vocal, now needs to do what it can to limit the damage. While the available steps may seem small given the scale of what President Putin is doing, and cannot turn back the clock or by themselves reverse Russia’s aggression, a demonstration of unity and imposition of costs by outside powers represent the best hope of bringing the region, and the world, back toward a more stable order...

As Crisis Group has previously noted, President Putin has chosen a path marked by risk and uncertainty for Russia. The question is not who will win the war. Ukraine is overmatched by the Russian military. But as the U.S. learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, toppling a government and creating something viable in its place are two very different things...

After months of crisis diplomacy have failed to avert what could well be Europe’s biggest war in a generation, attention now needs to turn to doing whatever possible to limit the damage...The toughest decisions in the coming period likely rest with President Zelenskyy. Severely outgunned, he will need to decide how to wage the war, and what cost his government and the Ukrainian people more broadly are prepared to sustain in defending their homeland... For Western powers, the challenges will be of a different nature. Most have already reacted with outrage to what they described as an unjustifiable attack on Europe’s stability and the international order... The main focus will be on putting in place and rigorously enforcing sanctions that Western leaders have been threatening for weeks... The West should not be the only bloc that is sending messages to Moscow. The more that non-aligned countries can communicate to Moscow the reputational costs its aggression will incur, the better...


Thousands join anti-war protests in Russia after Ukraine invasion (Guardian)

Vladimir Putin has said there is broad public support for the invasion of Ukraine that he announced just before dawn on Thursday morning. But by evening, thousands of people in cities across Russia had defied police threats to take to central squares and protest against the military campaign. Police had made at least 1,702 arrest in 53 Russian cities as of Thursday evening, according to the OVD-Info monitor, as they cracked down on the unsanctioned protests. Most of the arrests were made in Moscow and St Petersburg, where the crowds were largest. The protesters chanted: “No to war!” as they exchanged shocked reactions to the attack on Ukraine...

18Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Feb. 25, 2022, 8:58 am

Washington Post
Michael Ruane - 10h ago

Putin’s attack on Ukraine echoes Hitler’s takeover of Czechoslovakia

By 1939, parts of Czechoslovakia had already been carved off and taken over by Nazi Germany, which claimed that millions of ethnic Germans were being persecuted there.
The previous September, European powers, seeking to avoid war, had acquiesced and done nothing.
But six months later, German troops were massed on the Czech border, as Nazi leader Adolf Hitler railed and threatened the county with destruction.
On March 15, 1939, the sickly Czech president, Emil Hacha, was in Hitler’s study surrounded by the Führer’s henchmen.
“Hitler was at his most intimidating,” historian Ian Kershaw wrote in his 2000 biography of the Nazi leader. “He launched into a violent tirade against the Czechs.” The Nazis needed to take over Czechoslovakia to protect Germany. Hacha must agree or his country would be immediately attacked and Prague, its capital, bombed.
Hacha fainted, according to Kershaw, but was revived and gave in to Hitler’s demand. German troops marched in a few hours later. Hitler said it was the happiest day of his life.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin did not bother to speak with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, before launching his assault Thursday. But some observers see brutal similarities to Hitler’s seizure of Czechoslovakia just before World War II.
“This is all truly dictated by our national interests and dictated by care for the future of our country,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday after the Russian assault began.
Putin on Monday claimed pro-Russian residents of Ukraine faced “genocide.”
“The killing of civilians … the abuse of people, including children, women and the elderly, continues unabated,” he said. “There is no end in sight.”
“Neanderthal and aggressive nationalism and neo-Nazism … have been elevated in Ukraine to the rank of national policy,” he said. “How much longer can one put up with this?”
In March 1938, during the run-up to World War II, Hitler had first engineered the Nazi takeover of Austria, which already had strong pro-Nazi sympathies.
Seven months later, he was plotting the seizure of part of Czechoslovakia, claiming that ethnic Germans in the Sudeten regions bordering eastern Germany were being mistreated.
“I must also declare before the German people that in the Sudeten German problem my patience is now at an end,” Hitler said on Sept. 26, 1938. Czechoslovakia must “give the Germans their freedom, or we will get this freedom for ourselves.”
Four days later, during the famous Munich conference — now known as the centerpiece of the “appeasement” of the Nazis — Great Britain, France and Italy agreed to the handover of the Sudeten region to Germany, hoping it would prevent further aggression.
“It is the last territorial claim which I have to make in Europe,” Hitler said. Within six months, he took the rest of Czechoslovakia, and on Sept. 1, 1939, he attacked Poland, starting World War II.
During the Holocaust, about 263,000 Czech Jews were murdered by the Germans and their collaborators, according to the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum. The notorious Theresienstadt concentration, transit and labor camp, where 33,000 people were killed, was about 40 miles north of Prague.
In 2014, Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, with Putin saying, “In people’s hearts and minds, Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia.”
Before invading Ukraine this week, he first stationed at least 150,000 Russian troops along that country’s borders.
He claimed in a speech Monday that “Ukraine actually never had stable traditions of real statehood. … It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space.”
He recognized two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine — the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic — which had separated from Ukraine in 2014.
He ordered Russian troops into the area on a “peacekeeping mission” and then began a full-scale attack Thursday morning, bombarding cities, towns and villages and advancing toward the capital, Kyiv, where air raid sirens were heard.
“The argument that Hitler made is very, very similar to the one Putin’s made,” said Dov S. Zakheim, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, and a former undersecretary of defense. Putin, he said, is claiming that the Ukrainian government is “mistreating these poor Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine,” who need Putin to come to their defense.
“So it’s the same playbook,” Zakheim said. “When Hitler bit off the Sudetenland, his argument was: ‘These people don’t want to be part of Czechoslovakia. They’re Germans.’ Putin’s saying the same thing about these people in Donetsk and Luhansk: ‘They don’t want to be part of Ukraine. They’re Russians.’ Same exact argument.”
With Thursday’s attack, “he’s expanding it,” Zakheim said. And the example of the late 1930s hints at how far that expansion could go.
“Hitler wanted to take over all of Europe,” Zakheim said. “Putin … wants to restore Czarist Russia, the Russian empire. It’s a threat in particular to Finland, which was part of the Russian empire, to the Baltic states, which were part of the Russian empire, and to Poland, which was part of the Russian empire.”
Stephen J. Blank, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, said Putin moved more quickly than Hitler: “We never had a Munich conference, so they rolled the tanks in.”
Although their actions are not exactly the same, “the resemblances are still there.” The Russians appear to believe that “they are the conquering people, and the Ukrainians are a bunch of softies and fascists,” Blank said.
Hitler’s aims in 1938 and ’39 were simple: He wanted war, Kershaw wrote.
“Long live war,” Hitler told the Sudeten German leader Konrad Henlein at the height of Sudeten crisis, Kershaw reported.
After Czechoslovakia fell, Hitler had only six months to wait.

***
Trump is cheering for Putin and his assault on Ukraine. Is the Baltic region next? Didn't two of Trump's three wives come to America from this general area of the world?

19davidgn
Bearbeitet: Feb. 25, 2022, 2:44 am

Mearsheimer's talk from the 15th is relevant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbj1AR_aAcE

Feel better he didn't see this coming either. After all, as of then, Putin was winning...

This is a disaster for all sides.

20margd
Feb. 25, 2022, 8:42 am

Michael Weiss (journalist Daily Beast etc)🌻@michaeldweiss | 1:27 AM · Feb 25, 2022:
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1497095863864205312
🧵 A Ukrainian intelligence source has passed along the following, which has already begun to trickle out in some form in the Ukrainian media.
*All the usual caveats apply.* I cannot verify. But it is apparently based on human intelligence and concerns Russia’s play for Kyiv.

As many as 2,000 Russian Special Forces are planning to seize either Sikorsky or Boryspil airport in the capital to prepare for the arrival of 10,000 paratroopers, IL-76 aircraft, light armored vehicles and airborne troops.

The landing operation will be run by A-50 aircraft in the airspace of Belarus and Russia.

Simultaneously, sabotage groups already in Ukraine will seek to take out power grids and substations to disconnect much of Kyiv from electricity and communications, causing panic among the population.

This will coincide with a massive cyberattack on the authorities and other vital sites in Ukraine. Shortly preceding that, there will be an intensification at the fronts, with possible provocations along the entire border with Ukraine.

The goal is to force the military-political leadership to withdraw the bulk of combat-ready troops to the line of defense, leaving only a small number of troops in Kyiv.

The task of the landing party is to block Kyiv, communications, military control channels, capture/blow up arsenals, and sow panic. The Russians want to create conditions for "uncontrolled columns of refugees" from Kyiv, which will block highways and roads.

That will hinder the movement of troops, including law enforcement agencies on the roads of Kyiv.

The next phase will be to capture and control the main authorities including the General Staff, the Cabinet, the Verkhovna Rada, and retain them until the arrival of Russia's main forces.

The date of the operation is unknown, but is expected in the coming days, depending on the weather and the development of the international situation

The desired result is to seize the leadership of the Ukrainian state and force a peace agreement to be signed on Russian terms under conditions of blackmail.

Even if much of the current leadership is evacuated, some pro-Russian politicians will be able to assume responsibility and sign documents, citing the "escape" of the leadership from Kyiv.

The end-game, evidently, is to bisect Ukraine into two de facto states on the principle of East and West Germany or North and South Korea. And Kyiv will fall under Russia's dominion.

21margd
Feb. 25, 2022, 9:21 am

Oxxxymiron, one of Russia’s most popular rappers, called for an antiwar movement to be created in Russia.
“This is a crime and a catastrophe,” he said, adding that he will cancel his six sold-out concerts in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

https://nyti.ms/3hgiuu6
Text excerpt ( https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1496945572774875139/photo/1 )

- The New York Times @nytimes | 3:30 PM · Feb 24, 2022

22margd
Feb. 25, 2022, 9:26 am

Why would Russia want to take Chernobyl?
Alex Seitz-Wald | Feb 24, 2022

While the full answer may be known only to top officials in Moscow, the site happens to lie along one of the most direct paths to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.

“The location is important because of where it sits,” retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe, said in an interview. "If Russian forces were attacking Kyiv from the north, Chernobyl is right there on the way, almost in the way."

Chernobyl is less than 10 miles from Ukraine's border with Belarus, a Russian ally where Moscow has been massing troops in preparation for its attack. From there, it's a relatively straight shot of about 80 miles south to Kyiv.

The route from Belarus to Kyiv through Chernobyl might be particularly appealing to Russian military planners because it would allow them to cross the Dnieper River in Belarus, avoiding a potentially hazardous crossing of the major river, which bisects Ukraine, behind enemy lines...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna17615

23margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 25, 2022, 9:47 am

Those buses must be for police to haul away protesters? At first I thought they delivered them to the site...
Such courage!

Ragıp Soylu (Turkey, Middle East Eye) @ragipsoylu | 12:52 PM · Feb 24, 2022
Look at the size of anti-war protestors in St Petersburg, Russia. Wow

From Eilish Hart
0:25 ( https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1496905869983768581 )

24margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 25, 2022, 9:55 am

Peter Baker (NYT) @peterbakernyt | 10:50 PM · Feb 23, 2022:

Reminder: Russia signed a binding international agreement in 1994 committing
"to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and
“to refrain from the threat or use of force” against the country.
----------------------------------------------------------------

John Sipher (frmr CIA) @john_sipher | 11:41 PM · Feb 23, 2022:

Also, Russia signed 2010 OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) document reaffirming the right of all states to freely choose to join treaties or alliances. Further, no state can consider any part of the OSCE area as its sphere of influence, and pledged to refrain from the threat or use of force.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Hayes Brown (MSNBC) @HayesBrown | 12:03 AM · Feb 24, 2022:

So something interesting that could be developing at the UN: Ukraine appears to be laying the groundwork to challenge whether the Russian Federation is the legitimate successor to the USSR’s seat and veto on the Security Council

Here’s the ambassador citing the part of the charter that deals with admission of members during his speech at the UN Security Council earlier tonight

And here’s his demand for the documents that show that the Russian Federation was welcomed to the body by the UNSC and General Assembly. Those documents don’t exist as he noted because the UN legal counsel made the call

The UN Charter was never amended after the USSR broke up. It still references the Soviet Union as one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council. The Russian Federation just ascended to that seat after 1991.

Article 23 ( https://twitter.com/HayesBrown/status/1496712329345617920/photo/1 )

25Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Feb. 25, 2022, 11:30 am

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/25/1082992947/ukraine-support-help
Want to support the people in Ukraine? Here's how you can help

UNICEF
UNICEF supports health, nutrition, HIV prevention, education, safe drinking water, sanitation and protection for children and families caught in the conflict in Ukraine. "Heavy weapons fire along the line of contact has already damaged critical water infrastructure and education facilities in recent days," said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine M. Russell in a statement.

Médecins Sans Frontieres/Doctors Without Borders
MSF runs a range of activities in Ukraine working with local volunteers, organizations, health care professionals and authorities to help people travel to health care facilities and access prescribed medications.

Voices of Children.
The Ukrainian organization's Charitable Foundation helps provide psychological and psychosocial support to children affected by the armed conflict, according to its website. Voices of Children's efforts of support for kids include art therapy, video storytelling, providing mobile psychologists and even individual help for families.

Sunflower of Peace
The nonprofit organization is raising money to prepare first aid medical tactical backpacks for paramedics and doctors on the front lines. Each backpack is designed for groups of 5 to ten people and includes an array of first aid supplies — such as bandages, anti-hemorrhagic medicine and medical instruments, according to the organization's Facebook page.

International Committee of the Red Cross
This Switzerland-based organization is aiming to help people affected by the conflict and support the work of the Ukrainian Red Cross.

Save the Children
Save the Children, based in London, helps to deliver lifesaving aid to vulnerable children in Ukraine and around the world. According to its website, the organization says it is on the ground in the U.S. and other parts of the world "delivering essential humanitarian aid."

UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR)
The international organization aims to provide emergency assistance to families in Ukraine — providing aid such as cash assistance and opportunities for resettlement in the U.S.

CARE
CARE is raising money for its Ukraine Crisis Fund, which will provide immediate aid including food, water, hygiene kits, support services and direct cash assistance.

International Medical Corps
The global nonprofit has been delivering primary health care and mental health services in eastern Ukraine since 2014, and is raising funds to expand those services for people affected by the latest conflict.

26margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 26, 2022, 2:39 am

Oh. My. Gawd. (GRAPHIC!)

Ann is still European 🌍Stand with Ukraine 🌻🇺🇦@56blackcatGraphic ⚠️ | 8:47 AM · Feb 25, 2022:
A Russian tank swerves & runs over civilian car.
Peacekeepers my ass.
This is sheer cruelty.
Then casually reverses & drives away.
Amazingly the driver is still alive.

From Balša Božović
0:25 ( https://twitter.com/56blackcat/status/1497206708439072768 )
------------------------------------------------------

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:23 AM · Feb 25, 2022

Ukraine’s ex-Deputy Prosecutor General @MamedovGyunduz and human rights groups start collecting the evidence to document Russia’s war crimes during its latest invasion of Ukraine.

Evidence can be emailed to WarcrimeSOS.UA@gmail.com.

27margd
Feb. 25, 2022, 12:21 pm

Ukraine Conflict Live 2022 @UkraineLive2022 | 2:09 AM · Feb 25, 2022:
https://twitter.com/UkraineLive2022/status/1497106573436534784
Vehicles were backed up for 25 kilometers, many out of gas.
Several were abandoned as their occupants fled west on foot as fast as possible.

Photos of cars headed to Poland
https://twitter.com/UkraineLive2022/status/1497106573436534784/photo/1
https://twitter.com/UkraineLive2022/status/1497106573436534784/photo/2
https://twitter.com/UkraineLive2022/status/1497106573436534784/photo/3

( Author speaks of forced conscription by Ukrainians. )
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
190,000 weren't enough?

Neil Hauer (bne IntelliNews) @NeilPHauer | 8:07 AM · Feb 25, 2022 from Ukraine:
Another video from Grozny, Chechnya sent to me by local source today.
Thousands of additional Chechen government forces being deployed to Ukraine as part of Russia's occupation force.
0:26 ( https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1497196542138196000 )

Note that one of the primary utilities of Chechen forces for Putin is that Russian public will care much less if they are killed (than ethnic Russians). Much greater political tolerance for casualties.

Source for this video (a longtime friend and Grozny native) says there is little enthusiasm evident among the recruits. People are often forced into such situations in Chechnya.

28margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 25, 2022, 12:42 pm

Piotr Zalewski (The Economist) @p_zalewski | 12:43 AM · Feb 25, 2022:

Remarkable speech. Addressed to the Russian people, it should also be heard everywhere.
President Zelenskyy's speech to the Russian people

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's plea to the Russian people in video remarks posted early on Feb. 24 local time with English subtitles.
From Patrick Moelleken 🇺🇦
9:04 ( https://twitter.com/p_zalewski/status/1497084857029120007 )
------------------------------------------------------

РБК @ru_rbc | 11:58 AM · Feb 25, 2022:
Владимир Зеленский опубликовал видео из Киева.

«Мы тут. Мы в Киеве. Мы защищаем Украину», - подписал он эти кадры.
Translated from Russian by
Vladimir Zelensky posted a video from Kiev.

"We are here. We are in Kiev. We are defending Ukraine,” he signed these shots.

0:33 ( https://twitter.com/ru_rbc/status/1497254643587588099 )

29margd
Feb. 25, 2022, 12:52 pm

Visegrád 24 🇨🇿🇭🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰@visegrad24 | 4:08 AM · Feb 25, 2022

Vitaly Skakun is hailed as a hero after sacrificing his life to blow up the Henichesky Bridge.
The bridge was mined but a Russian column was advancing and there was no time to detonate it remotely.
Skakun radioed his unit and told them he would do it manually, saying goodbye.

Portrait photo of Shakun ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497136374369116171/photo/1 )

30margd
Feb. 25, 2022, 1:16 pm

Russian forces have lost some momentum, Pentagon official says.
Helene Cooper | Feb 25, 2022

...During a carefully worded briefing at the Pentagon, the official said that the Russians’ “momentum in terms of progress to Kyiv has slowed,” adding that “they are not moving on Kyiv as fast as they anticipated it going.” ...

Russia has not taken any population centers, the official said, nor has it yet managed to achieve air superiority over Ukraine. The Ukrainian air defense and missile defense systems, he said, have been degraded, but Ukraine’s air force “still have aircraft in the air that continue to engage and deny air access to Russia.”

The official said that Russia has begun an amphibious assault from the Sea of Azov, near Mariupol, in the south. Thousands of Russian naval infantry are coming ashore there, with defense officials assessing that the plan is to move toward the city of Mariupol.

Pentagon officials warned that as of Friday morning Russia had sent into Ukraine only 30 percent of the 150,000 to 190,000 troops it had massed at the border, so Moscow could intensify its attack at any time.

Russia has established three lines into three cities, the officials said: Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the east, and Kherson in the south. Ukrainian troops are fighting to hold all three. Significantly, the senior defense official said, “Ukrainian command and control is intact.”

As of Friday morning, Moscow had launched more than 200 missiles — land, sea and air — at targets in Ukraine...

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/25/world/russia-ukraine-war

31Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Feb. 25, 2022, 1:53 pm

https://www.mediaite.com/news/russian-state-media-claims-ukraine-shot-down-its-o...
Russian State Media Claims Ukraine Shot Down its Own Plane Over Kyiv, Chooses Serene Picture of Cranes as ‘Photo of the Week’

****************************
https://www.mediaite.com/news/mike-pompeo-claims-russia-invaded-under-biden-beca...
Mike Pompeo Claims Trump— Who Withheld Military Aid — Showed ‘Resolve’ for Ukraine

***
Murdoch's prime-time hosts and viewers will assume these statements made by white people are the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

32margd
Feb. 25, 2022, 5:11 pm

David Frum @davidfrum | 4:56 PM · Feb 24, 2022:
How does Putin's war not turn into a protracted insurgency, with infinite supplies of weapons flowing into Ukraine across the border from Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania - all countries protected by NATO? 1/x

How can Putin cope with the insurgency without terror and reprisal tactics, whose horror will be shared with the whole world instantly via social media? 2/x

How can the Russian economy survive sanctions from the world's richest nations, sanctions that will bite harder and deeper the longer they last - and that will not soon be lifted, if ever? 3/x

If the plan is to stand up a quisling government in Kyiv, what's the next plan to get recognition of that government from anybody this side of Belarus? To claim Ukraine's seat at the UN or the World Bank or IMF over the US/EU/UK/Canadian etc veto? 4/x

How does Putin stop a flow of volunteers from Poland, the Baltic republics, etc entering Ukraine to fight - and maybe suffer as casualties, stiffening opinion against him in their home countries? 5/x

Putin suppressed resistance in Syria by unrestricted air bombing - and by winking at the use of chemical weapons by his local ally against its own people. What does he think happens when he tries such methods a few hundred kilometers from the countries of western Europe? 6/x

Right now, Russia has Europe at a huge disadvantage because of tight oil and gas markets. Those markets cannot be loosened fast, but they can be loosened in time. What's the Putin plan for when US and Qatari LNG begins to flow into EU - and Russian gas is locked out, forever? 7/x

Does Putin really imagine that he can detain and murder Ukrainian politicians and civil society leaders without the most massive political and legal consequences for himself and his regime? 8/x

US and its allies have absorbed cyber attacks from Russia for years, mostly focusing on defense, not retaliation. What happens to backward Russia when adversaries with massively superior technology and financial resources go on cyberwar offense? 9/x

Putin struck some kind of deal with China to buy their acquiescence to his aggression versus Ukraine. If his war starts to go ill for him - and he needs more Chinese acquiescence - what will China ask next in return from him? 10/x

Ukraine is a poor country, but it does have schools, clinics, pensions. Who pays for them under Russian occupation? Does Putin void them? Who rebuilds airports and apartments? Does Putin try to tax Ukraine? How? Does he pay out of Russian funds? What will Russians say? 11/x

Ukraine's a country of 45 million spread across an area nearly the size of Texas. How many troops does it take for how many years to hold a now united and enraged population against their will? END
--------------------------------------------------------------------

oppositeofzero 🇺🇦 💪@sirgetagrip·23h
Russia has 145M people and a median age of 40, their military is already stretched thin in places like Georgia, in Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc. so how can they afford an indefinite occupation of a nation of 43M? what they destroy they will have to repay to build up.

33margd
Feb. 25, 2022, 5:18 pm

Putin’s Historic Miscalculation May Make Him a War Criminal
Robin Wright | February 24, 2022

...Putin may now also qualify as a war criminal, according to the Geneva Conventions of 1949. War crimes include willful killing and extensive destruction of property “not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.”...

...Putin’s invasion is based on wild accusations, including a claim that he needed to “denazify” Ukraine, a country led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is, in fact, Jewish. Putin vowed to end the “humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime,” when, in fact, separatists backed by Russia have for years waged a war in eastern Ukraine. Putin also claimed that the Kyiv government sought to acquire nuclear weapons when, in fact, Ukraine, once the third-largest nuclear power, denuclearized after the Soviet Union collapsed and it became an independent country again. He described the government in Kyiv as a “junta,” even though it was democratically elected in 2019. And Zelensky, in fact, won in a landslide with seventy-three per cent of the vote, defeating thirty-eight others who ran for President...

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/putins-historic-miscalculation-may-...

34mikevail
Feb. 25, 2022, 6:55 pm

>19 davidgn:
"Feel better he didn't see this coming either"
Here's an article from 1997 (pre-Putin):

https://www.brookings.edu/research/enlarging-nato-a-questionable-idea-whose-time...
Notable quote:
"...opponents of a larger NATO predict that NATO’s eastward expansion will provoke a hostile Russian reaction, weakening the position of responsible forces and strengthening the hand of anti-Western nationalists. They fear that enlargement thus risks becoming a self-fulfilling action that brings about a hostile Russia that needs countering, redividing Europe in the process."
Some folks saw it coming 25 years ago.

35davidgn
Bearbeitet: Feb. 26, 2022, 2:12 am

>34 mikevail: Oh, I meant Mearsheimer didn't foresee Russia actually invading in the course of the present episode. If we're going to widen the lens...

Mearsheimer, 1993.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/20045622 ETA or https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Mearsheimer-Case-for-Ukra...

And Mearsheimer would be very much in agreement with the "opponents" cited in the Brookings piece. (Certainly in retrospect, and for some years now (2014: https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is..., though I don't know where he stood on the question in the '90s).

Water under the bridge now.

36margd
Feb. 26, 2022, 10:36 am

Lionel Page (prof Queensland U) @page_eco | 7:27 AM · Feb 25, 2022
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186496574812161
It is regrettable that many Western commentators repeated Putin’s narrative that the problem came from an aggressive NATO expansion aimed at encircling Russia.
Time for a reset of narratives. Here are some simple insights, informed by our work on the game theory of alliances. 🧵
Alex Kokcharov and 3 others
Map--NATO Russia etc. ( https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186496574812161/photo/1 )

NATO is a voluntary association, and an association with Russia would also have (initially) been largely voluntarily.
But Eastern European countries *demanded* to join NATO. While NATO countries were initially not warm about this prospect.
Text ( https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186508448858114/photo/1 )

What about countries from the former USSR (Georgia, Armenia, Ukraine)? Russia proposed an economic integration, the “Community of Independent States” (CIS). It failed because the other countries resisted integration.
Map CIS ( https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186516149620736/photo/1 )

The reasons are now obvious for everybody to see. Small countries run the risk of being bullied in an alliance with a hegemonic partner. In such an alliance, they have very low bargaining power 👉 they are at the mercy of later “revisions” of the terms of the alliance.
Meme photo ( https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186523481255937/photo/1 )

The reaction from satellite countries was not paranoid. Russia used pressure to force Georgia and Moldova in the CIS. Then it established the “Monroeski Doctrine”, stating its right to intervene in CIS states to “protect” the right of ethnic Russians.
Text Monroeski Doctrine ( https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186530309603335/photo/1 )

The “protection of an ethnic minority” argument is a go-to excuse to interfere in another country, and therefore could not provide confidence in the future attitude of Russia. The current events provide, unfortunately, a vivid demonstration.
Cartoon Ukraine Russia minority ( https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186537695768580/photo/1 )

As a consequence of these concerns. Countries skeptics about an integration with Russia created in 1997-99 the GUUAM group (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova), to increase their bargaining power against Russia,
Text GUUAM ( https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186546667393024/photo/1 )

These concerns are why Eastern European countries have been interested to join the EU and NATO: they try to escape the threat of being vassalised in an alliance with Russia.
And NATO’s aggressive expansion? NATO countries have rejected Ukraine’s and Georgia’s membership.
Text NATO divided ( https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186555265712133/photo/1 )

It is mind-boggling how many commentators in the West have blamed NATO’s aggressiveness. When, instead, NATO has repeatedly opted not to fight to stop Russian military interventions in Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine.
Headlines
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186562895134723/photo/1
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186562895134723/photo/2

In short, Eastern European countries had a choice, they opted for the European Union and NATO, when they could, for the security it offered them. Remember, this was Kyiv in 2014.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186569866088448/photo/1 )

We need to stop the “NATO aggression” narrative. It has been used as an excuse by an authoritarian state to:
- crush the democratic aspirations of peoples in several European countries,
- reinforce the police state in Russia against the aspirations of Russian citizens.
Headlines
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186576681824258/photo/1
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186576681824258/photo/2

/end
These insights are informed by our work on coalitional game theory, where we used Russia and its alliance as an illustration of a “too big to prevail” paradox.

Too big to prevail: The paradox of power in coalition formation
Changxia Ke† Florian Morath‡ Anthony Newell§ Lionel Page¶
64 p
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JhRiFpYA83R62rE2bsn6055CPu8zIZrt/view

Abstract
In standard coalition games, players try to form a coalition to secure a prize and a coalition agreement specifies how the prize is to be split among its members. However, in practical situations where coalitions are formed, the actual split of the prize often takes place after the coalition formation stage. This creates the possibility for some players to ask for a renegotiation of the initial split. We predict that, in such situations, a player can suffer from being “too strong”. Our experimental results confirm that, when the actual split of the prize is delayed, a player’s strength can turn into a strategic disadvantage: a greater voting power in forming
a winning coalition is undermined by the threat of being overly powerful at the stage when a split is determined. This result is relevant to many real world situations where “too strong” players find it paradoxically hard to partner with weaker players to win the game.

Highlighted text
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186586437423105/photo/1
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186586437423105/photo/2

37margd
Feb. 26, 2022, 10:56 am

Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP* @grantshapps | 3:41 PM · Feb 25, 2022:
Putin’s actions are unlawful and anyone benefitting from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is not welcome here.
I’ve strengthened our ban in the UK so that no Russian private jet can fly in UK airspace, or touchdown – effective immediately.

* Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP @grantshapps
Welwyn Hatfield MP and Secretary of State for Transport

38mikevail
Feb. 26, 2022, 1:30 pm

>36 margd:
"In short, Eastern European countries had a choice, they opted for the European Union and NATO, when they could, for the security it offered them. Remember, this was Kyiv in 2014."
That's working out well. If anything, Putin is showing Ukraine exactly how much support they can expect from the West.

39davidgn
Feb. 26, 2022, 7:20 pm

https://pugwash.org/2022/02/26/pugwash-statement-on-the-war-in-ukraine/

Pugwash Statement on the War in Ukraine
PugwashFebruary 26, 2022Europe, Russia and NATOPost navigation
Previous
26 February 2022

The war in Ukraine is a very dangerous war inside Europe. It is the first significant Russian military intervention in Europe in more than 50 years.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the definition of the boundaries of the new independent states was dealt with, mostly, in a constructive and peaceful way. The Armenia-Azerbaijan case and the case of Georgia are the most significant counterexamples. In the case of Armenia/Azerbaijan, the Russian Federation played a positive role in containing the consequences of the antagonism and conflict.
In general, the problems connected to the autonomy of regions inside states – especially of those regions that have a different linguistic or ethnic or religious identity from the dominant one of the state – within Europe have been addressed mostly in a positive way after the end of world war II. The main exception has been the case of the dismantlement of the former Yugoslavia.
In the case of Ukraine, the direct involvement of Russia is a source of very serious concern for all Europeans and also for the entire world. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian military forces should be reversed and all attacks against Ukraine should be stopped. States are legally committed by the Charter of the United Nations to refrain from the use or threat of use of force to settle disputes. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Russia is one of the two nuclear armed superpowers and that nuclear weapons are also present in western Europe.
A possible way out from the present serious critical situation should include
An immediate cease-fire.
The total withdrawal from the present territory of Ukraine of all foreign military forces and foreign military installations.
The recognition of the autonomy of the Donbass region inside Ukraine in terms of local government and linguistic identity.
The recognition of the Crimea as part of the Russian Federation. Two referendums in Crimea supported the return to the Russian Federation.
The freedom of movement of people across the boundaries of Ukraine with Russia and other countries.
Following the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, sanctions against Russia should be eliminated. Economic sanctions can also bring very negative consequences not only for the country that is sanctioned.
A clear agreement that will stress the neutral status of Ukraine. In particular it should be understood that Ukraine will not seek NATO membership. Instead, the establishment of treaty-based international security assurances to neutral Ukraine will be important.
An inclusive program of peaceful economic rehabilitation of Ukraine. Once the first steps towards resolution of the crises in Ukraine are made, there should be new negotiations on new European security architecture based on an indivisible security for all.
In line, with Pugwash’s commitment to dialogue and peace, we appeal to all parties to exert maximum restraint, work for an immediate ceasefire which prioritizes humanitarian needs, and for a swift return to diplomacy and negotiation. Pugwash is committed to strengthen dialogue with the relevant stakeholders at both the official and non-official levels to promote understanding and trust, and to bring back peace and stability to Europe.

Sergio Duarte, President
Paolo Cotta Ramusino, Secretary-General

40ThomasReece1
Feb. 26, 2022, 10:42 pm

>1 margd: we're waiting and this is gòod

41davidgn
Feb. 27, 2022, 3:59 am

This was a lovely gesture. SNL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjE4_h0t7qI

42mikevail
Feb. 27, 2022, 5:28 am

>39 davidgn:
Thanks for posting that. This seems fair and sensible. So which side will say no?

43margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 5:54 am

>38 mikevail: I think Putin is showing NATO's newest members (Poland et al.) that they close the right fellah. While NATO soldiers may not be in Ukraine, I suspect NATO has sent as much support in form of supplies, training, intelligence, and sanction-like support. Biden's release of billions might be a CIA directive that could be important if Russia takes Kiev and her defenders go underground.

44davidgn
Feb. 27, 2022, 5:57 am

>42 mikevail: Frankly, I don't think either side is ready to commit to such terms.

45davidgn
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 6:02 am

>43 margd: Pat Lang is the former head of human intelligence for the DIA. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Patrick_Lang). I don’t much like him, and sometimes I think he’s unhinged in a Strangelovean way, but he occasionally has interesting takes on his blog, which I've referenced before..

This is one of them. And reading between the lines, my guess is these “possible courses of action” are already happening. Might help explain a thing or two — such as why the Russians STILL don’t have complete air superiority, to the surprise of many.

https://turcopolier.com/the-situation-and-possible-courses-of-action/

46Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 8:18 am

https://www.mediaite.com/entertainment/watch-saturday-night-live-opens-show-with...
WATCH: Saturday Night Live Opens Show With Ukrainian Chorus Performing ‘Prayer for Ukraine’

Saturday Night Live expressed solidarity with Ukraine by foregoing its standard cold open, and instead opening with the Ukrainian Chorus Dumka of New York performing a “Prayer for Ukraine.”

47margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 8:28 am

>45 davidgn: Thanks!

"Might help explain a thing or two — such as why the Russians STILL don’t have complete air superiority, to the surprise of many." Sounds like (JSTARS) Joint Surveillance and Target Attack Radar System is already at service of Ukrainians? https://twitter.com/drewtheprinter/status/1497684204062134279

Putin would be wise to negotiate with Zelensky, as Z is probably the only person who can help him avert quagmire, a disaster for Putin personally, Ukraine, Russia, as well as the rest of us, who should be laser-focused on climate and pandemic right now. Unfortunately, sounds like dictator Putin, esp in time of COVID, is isolated and not receiving or listening to alternative viewpoints(?) https://twitter.com/KashPrime/status/1497442241337507842

>36 margd: Just a thought. Looking at map of NATO, new members weren't immediately adjacent to Russia. They could have been truly neutral, but consistent with Queensland U author's thesis they were/are dominated by Russia?
__________________________________________________

In case of interest, a 1980 article about Canadian Deputy PM (and some think, a future PM), Chrystia Freeland. Cdn personality Brittlestar called her "badass". I thought she was "hardnosed" in NAFTA negotiations and on a couple other Cdn issues I care about. Certainly she was gutsy as a young woman--and is no doubt influential in shaping Canada's Ukraine response.
https://twitter.com/brittlestar/status/1497807146179776514/photo/1

48margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 8:43 am

Elon Musk says Starlink internet service ‘active’ in Ukraine
Published On 27 Feb 202227 Feb 2022

SpaceX billionaire Elon Musk says the company’s Starlink satellite broadband service is available in Ukraine and SpaceX is sending more terminals to the country, whose internet has been disrupted due to the Russian invasion...

...Internet connectivity in Ukraine has been affected by the Russian invasion, particularly in the southern and eastern parts of the country where fighting has been heaviest, internet monitors said on Saturday.

While extremely costly to deploy, satellite technology can provide internet for people who live in rural or hard-to-serve places where fibre-optic cables and cell towers do not reach. The technology can also be a critical backstop when hurricanes or other natural disasters disrupt communication... (margd: e.g., Tonga, I think?)

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/elon-musk-starlink-internet-service-ukr...

49margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 11:41 am

Ukraine's Tank Men and Women, per Tianamen Square...

olexander scherba🇺🇦@olex_scherba* | 5:29 AM · Feb 27, 2022:
Oh my. I could cry. A small town near Chernihiv went on the street and stopped RU tanks.
People, you are wonderful.
0:24 ( https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497881593511395328 )

* olexander scherba🇺🇦@olex_scherba
26 years in 🇺🇦 diplomatic service. Ukraine’s Ambassador to Austria (2014-2021). Author of “Undiplomatic Thoughts” (2021). Currently NAK Naftogaz.

50margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 11:43 am

Jeremy Cliffe @JeremyCliffe* | 5:28 AM · Feb 27, 2022:
Wow. (Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany) has just announced that Germany will spend MORE than 2% of its GDP on defence every year from now on.
Long overdue, but a sign that Germany has a leader who gets the scale of the moment we are in.

* Jeremy Cliffe @JeremyCliffe
Writer at Large, @NewStatesman | Formerly Charlemagne columnist & Brussels bureau chief, Berlin bureau chief, Bagehot columnist, TheEconomist

51margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 11:46 am

Hümeyra Pamuk @humeyra_pamuk* | 9:46 AM · Feb 27, 2022:
https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1497946283918729220
BREAKING - Turkish foreign minister says the situation in Ukraine constitutes a war, Ankara will therefore implement the articles of the Montreux Convention — meaning passage of Russian warships that are not part of the Black Sea fleet to be denied through Turkish straits

Quote Tweet
Sertac Aksan @AksanSertac · 2h
#SONDAKIKA #Montrö
Dışişleri Bakanı Çavuşoğlu:
Burada bir savaş mı var yoksa çatışma mı? Kararımızı verdik. 19. madde çok açık. Bu bir savaş.

* Hümeyra Pamuk @humeyra_pamuk
@Reuters foreign policy reporter covering the US State Department.
Before:London, Cairo, Dubai & Turkey. @columbiajourn alum. Any views here are mine.

52margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 12:00 pm

An open letter from (300) Russian scientists and science journalists against the war with Ukraine
Brussels Correspondent | February 24, 2022

“We, Russian scientists and scientific journalists, declare a strong protest against the hostilities launched by the armed forces of our country on the territory of Ukraine. This fatal step leads to huge human losses and undermines the foundations of the established system of international security. The responsibility for unleashing a new war in Europe lies entirely with Russia.

“There is no rational justification for this war. Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a military operation do not inspire any confidence. It is clear that Ukraine does not pose a threat to the security of our country. The war against her is unfair and frankly senseless.

“Ukraine has been and remains a country close to us. Many of us have relatives, friends and scientific colleagues living in Ukraine. Our fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers fought together against Nazism. Unleashing a war for the sake of the geopolitical ambitions of the leadership of the Russian Federation, driven by dubious historiosophical fantasies, is a cynical betrayal of their memory.

“We respect Ukrainian statehood, which rests on really working democratic institutions. We treat the European choice of our neighbors with understanding. We are convinced that all problems in relations between our countries can be resolved peacefully.

“Having unleashed the war, Russia doomed itself to international isolation, to the position of a pariah country. This means that we, scientists, will no longer be able to do our job normally: after all, conducting scientific research is unthinkable without full cooperation with colleagues from other countries. The isolation of Russia from the world means further cultural and technological degradation of our country in the complete absence of positive prospects. War with Ukraine is a step to nowhere.

“It is bitter for us to realize that our country, which made a decisive contribution to the victory over Nazism, has now become the instigator of a new war on the European continent. We demand an immediate halt to all military operations directed against Ukraine. We demand respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state. We demand peace for our countries. Let's do science, not war!”

https://www.eureporter.co/world/russia/2022/02/24/an-open-letter-from-russian-sc...

______________________________________________

Nataliya Vasilyeva @Nat_Vasilyeva* | 3:08 AM · Feb 26, 2022:
Russian doctors have penned a petition demanding a stop to the war.
I've already seen anti-war petitions from teachers, journalists and even psychiatrists and mental health professionals.

Quote Tweet
The Siberian Times @siberian_times | 3:05 AM · Feb 26, 2022
Russian doctors demanded Putin stopped the war in Ukraine. 'We strongly oppose the military actions carried out by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. The war will take multiple lives, cripple so many destinies we won’t be able to help however hard we try

«Кричать от боли все будут на одном языке». Российские врачи подписали открытое письмо Путину с требованием прекратить военную атаку на Украину
26 февраля 2022, 10:07
https://takiedela.ru/news/2022/02/26/krichat-ot-boli/

* Nataliya Vasilyeva @Nat_Vasilyeva
Moscow correspondent for Telegraph; AP survivor. Корреспондент газеты "Дэйли Телеграф" в Москве.

53margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 11:54 am

Ukraine conflict: Terrified but coping, residents of Dnipro jolt into action
Sarah Rainsford | 2/26/2022

On the day Vladimir Putin ordered his soldiers into Ukraine, Arina had planned a dance class after work and then a party. Three days later, the English teacher was making Molotov cocktails in a park...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60542523
__________________________________________

George Conway*🌻@gtconway3d | 3:33 AM · Feb 26, 2022:
hydrocarbon cocktail service instructions

Quote Tweet
Howard Steele** @HowardSteele5 | 3:17 AM · Feb 26, 2022
Replying to @Kiehart and @ChristopherJM
From social media-
https://twitter.com/HowardSteele5/status/1497485953954426881/photo/1

* George Conway🌻@gtconway3d
Recovering lawyer. Never Putschist. Contributing columnist, @WashingtonPost. Aspiring to become an all-Corgi feed. Русский корабль, иди нах*й.
Kellyanne Conway's spouse

** Howard Steele @HowardSteele5
Navy Brat; fed litigator, LLM (Intellectual Property), board certified (Labor & Employment), fmr fed & app clerk, mediator, Mensa. Helped since the escalator.

54margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 5:59 pm

Alexander S. Vindman (Former NSC/ WH Staffer) @AVindman | 1:51 PM · Feb 27, 2022

⚡️Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, reportedly fired today.
Gerasimov was very highly regarded, the most important military leader of the past generation,
& the architect of today’s Russian Armed Forces. He’s served as the head of the military since 2012.

Photos
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498007949104533508/photo/1
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498007949104533508/photo/2
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498007949104533508/photo/3

Gerasimov may end up being the fall guy for the catastrophic early failures of Russia’s Ukraine war, even though Putin would have designed and directed the conduct of the war. Potentially, he was fired to arrest the growing discontent of the military for this disaster campaign.

Either way, the situation seems to be unraveling, quickly. The next military leader will have even less cache to pushback on bad ideas. Putin seems a cornered animal, increasing desperate. It won’t end well for him. The question is at what cost with what collateral damage?

This (photos) is from my last meeting sitting opposite of Gerasimov, while he was meeting with the U.S. CJCS, in June 2018 in Helsinki.

55Limelite
Feb. 27, 2022, 3:58 pm

Turkey To Sanction Russia in Most Meaningful Way?

Turkey appears to have got off the pot.
“It is not a couple of air strikes now, the situation in Ukraine is officially a war… We will implement the Montreux Convention,” Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, said in an interview with broadcaster CNN Turk on Sunday.

“Under these conditions, we will apply the Montreux agreement. Article 19 is pretty clear. In the beginning, it was a Russian attack and we evaluated it with experts, soldiers, and lawyers. Now it has turned into a war. This is not a military operation; it is officially a state of war,” FM Cavusoglu told private broadcaster CNN Türk on Feb. 27.

He recalled that the warships of littoral states can return their fleet to their bases through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits and Turkey cannot prevent this passage.

“Here it is clear whether the concerned ship is registered to the base. There should be no abuse. She should not be involved in a war after saying she will go back to the base and passing through the Bosphorus,” the minister stated.

Regarding allegations that Turkey is not participating in the sanctions against Russia, Cavusoglu said they are not true.

“We have made our statements; they are very clear. We said that we do not accept the attacks of Russia. Turkey’s position is very clear. Our aim is to be in favor of dialogue,” the minister also said. . .
The Montreux Convention of 1936, of which Russia is a signatory, gives Turkey complete control of the Bosporous and Dardanelles Straits that allow passage between the Mediterranean and Black Seas, and regulates maritime traffic as well as civilian air traffic of non-Baltic countries overhead. That would be a sanction that directly and immediately impacts Russian aggression.

56davidgn
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 4:45 pm

Another Russian independent media.
https://meduza.io/live/2022/02/27/voyna-rossiyskoe-vtorzhenie-v-ukrainu-chetvert...
Exchange rates:
7 hours ago (Google translated)


RIA News
Sberbank sells the dollar for almost 100 rubles, VTB - for 94
Euro exchange rates in banks:

• VTB - can be bought at 119.55 rubles, sold at 79.4 rubles
• Sberbank - 110.49 rubles and 94.51 rubles
• Gazprombank - 120.11 rubles and 90.75 rubles
• "Opening" - 120 rubles and 90 rubles
• Alfa-bank - 110.55 rubles and 94.55 rubles
• ICD - 110.4 rubles and 98.4 rubles
• "Tinkoff" - 146.6 rubles and 101.4 rubles


4 hours ago

Approximate currency purchase rates in the applications of Russian banks right now
Sberbank: dollar - 113, euro - 125
Tinkoff: dollar - 152, euro - 163
Alfa-Bank: dollar - 119, euro - 134
Raiffeisen: dollar - 150, euro - 169
Modulbank: dollar - 190, euro - 240
Rates are growing rapidly against the backdrop of promises by the EU and the US to freeze the assets of the Bank of Russia in the near future. Because of this, it will be difficult for the Central Bank to carry out foreign exchange interventions and keep the exchange rate from falling.


Just looking at the Sberbank rate (the most conservative), that's a 12% drop in the real value of the ruble inside Russia, in about 3 hours. (Note the "official" rate is still 83.5 to the dollar)

57margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 5:25 pm

Alexander S. Vindman @AVindman | 4:26 PM · Feb 27, 2022:
Thread. Info comes from a very senior former ministry of defense official.
Belarus will commit air and ground forces to Russia’s war on Ukraine, in the next 24 hours.
The most pressing threat is a large military column headed toward Kyiv from the Northwest.

The next biggest concern is the thrust from the south. The major port city of Odesa is attempting to repel amphibious assaults. Mariupol, on the of Azov, is being encircled.

Russian forces control the following cities and towns (these are smaller cities): Nova Kakhovka, Henichesk, Oleshki, Konotop, Berdyansk, Melitopol, Ivankiv, Borodyanka, Vasylivka, Orekhove, Pologi.

In spite of Ukraine’s fierce resistance, the situation is very serious. The next several days remain critical.

58margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 5:29 pm

olexander scherba🇺🇦@olex_scherba* | 2:54 PM · Feb 27, 2022:
If true, it’s probably the first tank ever stolen by a farmer… ))
Ukrainians are tough cookies indeed.
0:07 ( https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1498023662695419910 )

* olexander scherba🇺🇦@olex_scherba
26 years in 🇺🇦 diplomatic service. Ukraine’s Ambassador to Austria (2014-2021). Author of “Undiplomatic Thoughts” (2021). Currently NAK Naftogaz.

59Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 5:38 pm

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tom-cotton-twists-himself-in-knots-to-avoid-condemni...
Tom Cotton Twists Himself in Knots to Avoid Condemning Trump’s Russia Rhetoric Under Brutal Grilling From Stephanopoulos

***
Most GOP reps have no needles in their 21st century moral compasses these days.

60margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 5:33 pm

Michael Birnbaum (WaPo) @michaelbirnbaum | 3:50 PM · Feb 27, 2022:
European Union to supply fighter jets to Ukraine:
Russian-made ones, from Bulgaria, Slovakia and Poland, a European diplomat tells me

(They need to be Russian-made, because that's what Ukrainian fighter pilots can jump into and use from day 1.)

61margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 5:42 pm

Katya Adler (BBC) @BBCkatyaadler | 2:28 PM · Feb 27, 2022:
EU announces it has agreed unanimously amongst all member countries to take in Ukrainian refugees fir up to 3 years without asking them to first apply for asylum. Just been announced following a meeting of EU Interior ministers

62margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 5:53 pm

Neutral Swiss poised to freeze Russian assets - president
Stephanie Nebehay | February 27, 2022 3:37 PM EST

Neutral Swiss eye adopting EU sanctions
Freezing of Russian assets "very probable" - Cassis
Swiss ready to help with flow of refugees

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/very-probable-that-swiss-will-freeze-russia...

63margd
Feb. 27, 2022, 6:06 pm

Hugo Kaaman @HKaaman* | 12:11 PM · Feb 27, 2022
Sweden just announced it will deliver 5000 anti-armour rocket launchers, 5000 body armour kits, 5000 helmets, and 135,000 field rations to the Ukrainian armed forces
Photo ( https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1497982746123247623 )

* Hugo Kaaman @HKaaman
Independent researcher. Focus on SVBIED design & tactics by non-state actors. Written for @MiddleEastInst @JanesINTEL
@EuroEyeRad. IR student

64Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Feb. 27, 2022, 7:44 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/opinion/rash-putin-razes-ukraine.html
Rash Putin Razes Ukraine by Maureen Dowd

WASHINGTON — What has surprised me most about the history I have lived through is how often we get dragged on demented, destructive rides by leaders who put their personal psychodramas over the public’s well-being.

And it always feels as though we are powerless to stop the madness of these individuals, that we’re trapped in their ego or libido or id or delusion.

Now comes the insanity of Vladimir Putin, the former K.G.B. officer who has been feeling humiliated and furious ever since the red banner of the Soviet Union came down from the Kremlin 30 years ago. This demonic little man with the puffy Botoxy face has been watching too many episodes of “The Americans” during his Covid isolation.

He decided to indulge his nostalgia for the days when American children had to practice diving under their school desks; when James Bond sparred with the Soviet assassin Rosa Klebb, sprouting a knife in her shoe. He longs for the shadowy era when Moscow was a menacing superpower, not a withering autocracy.

To feed Cold War dreams, Putin spun a nuclear nightmare. He invaded a peaceful democracy, Ukraine, vowing consequences “you have never seen in your entire history” to those who interfered.

“Even by his logic, I don’t see how this ends well,” The Times’s Steven Lee Myers, a former Moscow correspondent who wrote “The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin,” told me. “He conquers Ukraine and people declare him the tsar of all Russian lands? That’s not going to happen. There’s not even cheering in Russia like there was after the annexation of Crimea, which was done with almost no bloodshed. And I doubt a majority of Russians believe the propaganda about the imminent Nazi threat.” (Especially since the country is run by a Jewish comedian turned courageous president, Volodymyr Zelensky.)

As Julia Ioffe wrote in Puck, Putin stewed in his begrudging juices for decades and then rang down a new Iron Curtain: “Even as his forces were shelling the entirety of Ukraine — north to south, east to west — Putin made clear that his invasion wasn’t really about Ukraine. It was about the United States, about history and settling old scores, and rewriting the terms of surrender, 30 years later, that ended the Cold War.”

On Thursday, Putin tried to justify behaving like a war criminal, saying that Russia — i.e., Putin — was being treated in an “insolent,” “contemptuous” and “disdainful” way by the West.

In the midst of his “extraordinary, if predictable, doublespeak,” as The Times’s Roger Cohen called it, Putin draped the albatross of the unwarranted invasion of Iraq around America’s neck:

To prove that there were W.M.D.s in Iraq, Putin said, “the U.S. secretary of state held up a vial with white powder, publicly, for the whole world to see, assuring the international community that it was a chemical warfare agent created in Iraq. It later turned out that all of that was a fake and a sham, and that Iraq did not have any chemical weapons.”

Hard to argue with that.

George W. Bush and Dick Cheney let their own egos, gremlins and grandiose dreams occlude reality. W. wanted to outshine his father, who had decided against going into Baghdad when he fought Saddam. And Cheney wanted to kick around an Arab country after 9/11 to prove that America was a hyperpower. So they used trumped-up evidence, and Cheney taunted Colin Powell into making that fateful, bogus speech at the U.N., chockablock with Cheney chicanery.

Though Donald Trump was Putin’s lap dog, upending traditional Republican antipathy toward Russia, Putin no doubt has contempt for the weak and malleable Trump. Putin could have been alluding to Trump in his speech Thursday when he accused the U.S. of “con-artist behavior,” adding that America had become “an empire of lies.” Certainly, Trump was the emperor of lies.

Republicans used to be so allergic to Communists that George H.W. Bush told this story in his memoir: In his 1964 Texas Senate bid, the John Birch Society slimed him by implying that Barbara Bush’s father, the president of McCall publishing, put out a Communist manifesto, Redbook, the women’s magazine.

As President Biden marshaled world opinion against Putin, Trump offered nauseating praise of this murderer. Like the thug he so admires, Trump let his fragile ego and world-class delusions distort reality. Trump politicized the Covid response in a dangerous way. And, unable to accept the designation of Loser, he helped spread the lies and misinformation that led to Jan. 6. In a breathtaking betrayal, the president of the United States tried to scuttle the democracy he was running; Trump abandoned the Constitution he was sworn to protect.

But if President Biden got no backup on helping Ukraine from the quisling Trump, he did get a boost Friday from his inspiring Supreme Court nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson, who reminded us, “The United States of America is the greatest beacon of hope and democracy the world has ever known.”

As for Putin’s Napoleonic megalomania, perhaps the Russia expert Nina Khrushcheva summed him up best in a Vanity Fair podcast: “He’s a small man of five-six saying he’s five-seven.”

65margd
Feb. 28, 2022, 8:12 am

NATO v Putin's visions for Ukraine, below.
"Russian newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets claimed (Putin's summer 2021)...essay was Putin’s “final ultimatum to Ukraine.” https://www.spisok-putina.org/en/news-about-the-persons/2021-07-19/putins-new-uk...

Relations with Ukraine
NATO | 25 Feb. 2022 15:44

A sovereign, independent and stable Ukraine, firmly committed to democracy and the rule of law, is key to Euro-Atlantic security. Relations between NATO and Ukraine date back to the early 1990s and have since developed into one of the most substantial of NATO’s partnerships. Since 2014, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cooperation has been intensified in critical areas...

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37750.htm

______________________________________________________________

"The Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians".
Vladimir Putin | July 12, 2021

During the recent Direct Line, when I was asked about Russian-Ukrainian relations, I said that Russians and Ukrainians were one people – a single whole. These words were not driven by some short-term considerations or prompted by the current political context. It is what I have said on numerous occasions and what I firmly believe. I therefore feel it necessary to explain my position in detail and share my assessments of today’s situation...

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/08/15/the-historical-unity-of-russians-and-ukrai...

66margd
Feb. 28, 2022, 8:58 am

EU, UK, Canada have banned Russians from their airspace and Russia is replying in kind The shortest flight distance from Moscow to Miami, etc. is through European and Canadian airspace: https://www.greatcirclemap.com . Russians would (and have) shot down offending civilian aircraft, but I can't imagine Canada and Europe doing so. Flight paths must registered--maybe Aeroflot flight 111 flight path was registered before ban went into effect? Must be a lot of rich Russians needing to visit assets and family in Miami these days?

As Russian planes face airspace bans, Canada investigates reported Aeroflot violation
Joe Sutton, Pete Muntean and Karla Cripps | 28th February 2022
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/russia-flight-ban-canada/index.html

Transport Canada @Transport_gc | 10:00 PM · Feb 27, 2022
https://twitter.com/Transport_gc/status/1498130837702914064
(1/2) We are aware that Aeroflot flight 111 violated the prohibition put in place earlier today on Russian flights using Canadian airspace.
(2/2) We are launching a review of the conduct of Aeroflot and the independent air navigation service provider, NAVCAN, leading up to this violation. We will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action and other measures to prevent future violations.

67margd
Feb. 28, 2022, 9:05 am

>60 margd: contd.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2* | 6:27 PM · Feb 27, 2022:
BREAKING: The EU says fighter jets will be arriving in Ukraine within the hour

* Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford. Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org
Bylines @ForeignPolicy & @washingtonpost .

68margd
Feb. 28, 2022, 9:17 am

>16 margd: contd. :)

Ukraine’s ‘Go Fuck Yourself’ Heroes Who Defended Snake Island Still Alive, Its Navy Says
‘ALIVE AND WELL’
Jamie Ross | Published Feb. 28, 2022
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraines-go-fck-yourself-heroes-who-defended-snake...
--------------------------------------------
(google translation?)
ВМС ЗС України
t012c21hfsa390aei ·

Regarding the actions of the Russian Federation near the island of Zmí їnij
February 26th, receiving the information that on the o. A snake among our defenders may be killed and wounded, a Sapphire civilian ship was sent to the island to carry out a humanitarian mission to help the victims. Together with the crew agreed to leave father Vasily Virozub, Alexander Chokov and their assistants. But they were illegally captured by the Russians. Illegal capture of a civilian ship - a non-combatant without performing any military mission, is a violation of the rules and customs of war, international humanitarian law.
We demand from Russia the immediate release of illegally occupied citizens of Ukraine
We address the world community, to the believers of all churches requesting to take all possible measures to influence the Russian Federation for the return of our citizens
Regarding the Marines and border guards, who were taken captive by Russian occupiers on the island of Snake.
We are very happy to learn that our brothers are alive and well with them!
But Russian propaganda tries to twist the "news" about the fact that the Ukrainian authorities "forgotten", "buried" their fellows.
At the same time, the sailors bravely rebuked twice the attacks of the Russian invaders. Because of BC's marriage, they could not continue the protection of the island.
In turn, the invaders "forgot" to report that they had completely destroyed the island's infrastructure: lighthouse, carnations, antennas, etc. Accordingly, the connection with the snake was interrupted. Repeated attempts to contact the personal team and learn about its fate were futile. And the permanent shelling on the side of warships and aviation of the Russian Federation did not allow to help the Marines.
In summary, we want to add, the enemy once demonstrated his essence. He proved again that there is no faith and truth in his actions and words.
And we are looking forward to our brothers and with all our soul.
Public Relations Service
The Naval Forces Commandments
Armed Forces of Ukraine

69John5918
Bearbeitet: Feb. 28, 2022, 9:45 am

What the UN General Assembly can do for Ukraine (International Crisis Group)

The United Nations General Assembly will hold an Emergency Special Session on the war in Ukraine this week, beginning today. This is potentially a key moment for all members of the UN to condemn Russia’s aggression, call for an immediate cessation of hostilities and reaffirm Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The General Assembly must send a clear message in support of Ukraine, and African, Asian and Latin American members in particular should make their voices heard.

This week’s General Assembly session follows Russia’s predictable decision to block a Security Council resolution deploring its actions last Friday. On Sunday 27 February, the Council passed a procedural resolution – with eleven votes in favour, three abstentions and Russia’s no-vote (Russia could not veto the text under UN rules) – requesting the General Assembly to meet in line with the long-established but rarely used “Uniting for Peace” formula. Created in 1950 during the Korean War, this allows the Assembly to make “appropriate recommendations” on collective responses to security crises in cases where the Security Council cannot act “because of a lack of unanimity of the permanent members”. Though still not legally binding, these recommendations carry more symbolic weight than normal General Assembly resolutions.

The U.S. and its European allies have been prominent in calling for a General Assembly meeting. Yet non-Western countries predominate in the Assembly, and it is their votes that will spell the difference between diplomatic success and failure. There is some reason for hope. During last week’s Security Council debates, it was representatives from the Global South who offered the most compelling interventions. Non-Western states would do well to refer to the permanent representative of Kenya’s statement to the Security Council on Monday 21 February, which drew parallels between Ukraine’s plight and the “domination and oppression” faced by African states from colonial powers. The permanent representative of Mexico, another elected Council member, also compared the situation to its own history of invasions by foreign powers. As Kenya and Mexico made clear – and the other Council members, including Gabon, Ghana and Brazil, have affirmed in speeches over the last week – the war in Ukraine is not solely a European security affair. Russia’s actions ride roughshod over two principles at the core of the UN Charter: the sovereign equality of its member states and the prohibition on the threat or use of force in international relations. As they have done elsewhere, Russian military operations also appear to have transgressed international humanitarian law, including its requirements for the protection of civilians...

Although the General Assembly lacks the Security Council’s power to impose binding sanctions or other coercive measures under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, it nevertheless can and should help to galvanise global pressure to reverse Russian aggression and aid its victims by:

- Encouraging UN Secretary-General António Guterres to offer any forms of diplomatic or technical expertise...
- Recommending that UN member states apply temporary and exceptional sanctions against Russia...
- Mandating a Commission of Inquiry to collate evidence of war crimes and other atrocities...
- Requesting the president of the General Assembly to appoint a senior envoy – such as a former head of state – to act as the body’s representative on humanitarian assistance...
- Calling for the safe, secure and orderly evacuation from Ukraine of foreign nationals...
-Calling on Russia to lower its nuclear alert level, and reminding all the P5 members of their January 2022 declaration to the UN that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.
- Reaffirming the basic principles of sovereignty and non-use of force in the UN Charter.

None of these actions will end the war in its own right. Neither the General Assembly nor the UN system as a whole has the leverage to impose peace on Russia. But the Assembly can, through both its words and resolutions, make it clear that the majority of UN members reject what Moscow has done, will support peacemaking efforts and stand ready to help the victims of this tragic, needless and perilous war.

70John5918
Feb. 28, 2022, 12:44 pm

Kenyan ambassador's speech to UN on Ukraine (video), explaining how Africans understand Ukraine, and placing Russian aggression in its post-colonial context.

71margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 28, 2022, 1:36 pm

...Twitter, which has faced punitive site slowdowns from Russia, said on Saturday (26 February 2022) that its site was being restricted for users in the country...

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/twitter-will-label-reduce-visibility-...
-----------------------------------------------------

Dr. Joss Reimer@jossreimer* | 11:20 AM · Feb 28, 2022:
https://twitter.com/jossreimer/status/1498332370826629125
Has anyone else noticed a sudden absence of antivaxx bots since Twitter was restricted in Russia? 🤨
After the massive number of bot responses to my #COVID19Vaccines misinformation tweet, the silence is dramatic...

* Medical lead and official spokesperson for @MBGov ’s COVID-19 vaccine taskforce and Medical Officer of Health for Manitoba Health and Seniors Care
--------------------------------------------------

David Fisman@DFisman (U Toronto) | 11:57 AM · Feb 28, 2022
https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1498341525515812867
yes. The difference is astounding.
--------------------------------------------------

Leshell 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇺🇦@HelloLeshell | 1:15 PM · Feb 28, 2022
A few days ago I started collecting examples of bots (and influencers) pivoting from pro-convoy to pro-Russian content. We all knew we had been subjected to informational warfare but it’s never been clearer.

Leshell 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇺🇦@HelloLeshell · Feb 24
There are a significant number of pro-convoy bots that are now pushing the message that Trudeau and Canada is worse than Putin and Russia. 🧵

72margd
Bearbeitet: Feb. 28, 2022, 1:48 pm

Zelensky, in a passionate speech, urges the E.U. to admit Ukraine immediately.
Matthew Mpoke Bigg | Feb. 28, 2022

...President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine urged the European Union on Monday to grant his country immediate accession to the bloc in response to Russia’s invasion.

In a passionate speech aimed at rallying Ukrainians to continue to defend their country and encouraging further international support, he thanked E.U. countries that have decided to supply arms to Ukraine over the past few days and said he had spoken to Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, to urge her to take “even stronger steps.”

“We appeal to the European Union for Ukraine’s immediate accession under a new special procedure,” Zelensky said in a video broadcast from the capital, Kyiv. “Our goal is to stand alongside all Europeans and, most importantly, to stand on their level.”

The European Union wants Ukraine to join the bloc “over time,” Ms. von der Leyen said in an interview with Euronews on Saturday, although she gave no indication of timing.

Ukraine took a first step to joining the European Union in early 2014, but progress toward accession has been slow...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-european-union-zelensky....
_____________________________________________________

Zelensky signs application for Ukraine's membership to EU
AP | Feb 28, 2022 1

An embattled Ukraine moved to solidify its bond with the West on Monday by signing an application to join the European Union, while the first round of Ukraine-Russia talks aimed at ending the fighting concluded with no immediate agreements.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/zelensky-signs-application-for-ukraine...

73John5918
Feb. 28, 2022, 10:45 pm

ICC prosecutor to investigate possible war crimes in Ukraine (Guardian)

The prosecutor of the international criminal court (ICC) in The Hague has announced that he will launch an investigation into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine. Karim Khan said that although Ukraine was not a member of the ICC, it had awarded jurisdiction to the court. He said that there was grounds to open an investigation based on a previous preliminary investigation on Crimea and the Donbas published last year, and on current events in Ukraine...


Nigeria condemns treatment of Africans trying to flee Ukraine (Guardian)

The Nigerian government has condemned the treatment of thousands of its students and citizens fleeing the war in Ukraine, amid growing concerns that African students are facing discrimination by security officials and being denied entry into Poland. A deluge of reports and footage posted on social media in the past week has shown acts of discrimination and violence against African, Asian and Caribbean citizens – many of them studying in Ukraine – while fleeing Ukrainian cities and at some of the country’s border posts. They are among hundreds of thousands of people trying to escape the country as civilian casualties and destruction mount... The Nigerian president, Muhammadu Buhari, said on Monday: “All who flee a conflict situation have the same right to safe passage under UN convention and the colour of their passport or their skin should make no difference,” citing reports that Ukrainian police had obstructed Nigerians. “From video evidence, first-hand reports, and from those in contact with ... Nigerian consular officials, there have been unfortunate reports of Ukrainian police and security personnel refusing to allow Nigerians to board buses and trains heading towards Ukraine-Poland border,” he said...

74DugsBooks
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 1, 2022, 1:37 am

Never been in the military but I was wondering why the Ukraine does not have IEDs in place for the miles long armored convoys approaching the capital. I always thought artillery shells embedded in tank paths would be effective & after googling I found that low & behold there is published research.
https://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticle.php?artid=95752

Maybe there was not time but the defense of Ukraine is heroic.

75davidgn
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 1, 2022, 2:30 am

Amb. Murray:
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/02/ukraine-how-can-the-war-end/
My own friends and allies on the left are suggesting that the answer is for there to be a ceasefire and Western agreement to no further expansion of NATO, and a new arms control treaty governing missile deployments. That would certainly be ideal but it is not going to happen.

You have to understand the realpolitik of the Western elite. They will never damage their own interests. That is why the sanctions that would really hurt Putin, targeting companies like BP and Shell over their Russian interests or the real oligarchs like Usmanov, Deripaska and Abramovic, will never happen because they would damage the interests of the British elite. It is why the UK government fly Ukrainian flags but will not let Ukrainians come without visas. They don’t really care about the ordinary people at all.

The NATO leadership now see Putin in a position where he either has to back down and retreat, or inflict massive casualties on the Ukraine and get bogged down there for decades. If they wanted to save the Ukrainian people, this would indeed be the time for West to negotiate. But the lives of ordinary Ukrainians mean nothing to them.

So rather than find Putin a ladder to climb down, they will strike heroic poses, wave Ukrainian flags and send more weapons. I fear Putin will go for the mass deaths scenario. Macho is his entire brand, and his speech last Sunday was worryingly fundamentalist. I do wonder if he is losing the room at home – he spoke of the end of the Soviet Union as a calamity, but Russians under forty cannot even remember the Soviet Union at all. Nobody under 50 can remember it in any kind of functioning order.

One final thought for now. I applaud those brave people in Russia who have demonstrated for peace. Almost 2,000 have been arrested. But remember this – under the Tory government’s new policing bill, taking part in a demonstration in England and Wales not approved in advance by the police could bring up to ten years in prison. Just one example of the rife hypocrisy submerging us all at present.

76DugsBooks
Mrz. 1, 2022, 3:26 am

>75 davidgn: interesting but possibly dated in that restrictions have been placed on Russian oligarchs- if that is who the article is referring to by the people mentioned.

Cramer on CNBC mentioned the 1948 Finish agreement with Stalin ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finno-Soviet_Treaty_of_1948) as a way to avoid war in Ukraine - before the bullets started flying. Cramer said a similar agreement could avoid bloodshed without a regime change perhaps - while everyone waits for Putin to die or be assassinated I guess.

77davidgn
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 1, 2022, 4:10 am

>76 DugsBooks: Accurate as of the 26th when it was written.
NPR:
The U.S. sanctions on Russian oligarchs miss the richest of the rich
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/26/1083276850/us-sanctions-on-russian-oligarchs-miss...

Though it does look like the EU (albeit not yet the UK) has now gone after Usmanov. https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/02/28/eu-sanctions-russian-billionai...
https://theathletic.com/news/everton-sponsor-alisher-usmanov-sanctioned-by-europ...

78-pilgrim-
Mrz. 1, 2022, 6:21 am

Some responses in the UK.

Three days ago, the UK Defence Secretary, said that she would "absolutely" encourage British citizens who wish to travel to Ukraine to take up arms in its defence.

However, her own department states that such volunteers may be prosecuted on their return.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/liz-truss-says-she-would-back-brit...
Nevertheless British nationals are appearing outside the Ukrainian embassy to volunteer.

For Ukrainian expats, the situation is clearer. And they are going.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60560589.amp

79margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 1, 2022, 7:08 am

Ukraine President Zelensky has been dismissed for his background as comedian and TV star, but look how well those skills are working for him. Makes me miss MN Senator Al Franken. (Not DJ Trump, however!) Could maybe use some messaging smarts at the CDC as well...

Peter W. Singer (Arizona State U) @peterwsinger | 12:51 PM · Feb 28, 2022:
https://twitter.com/peterwsinger/status/1498355174649311232
Why has Ukraine been so successful at information warfare/propaganda vs the supposed Russian masters of it?

A thread 🧵 of 10 persuasion messaging themes working for them:
1) Pre-Bunking...
2) Heroism...
3) Martyrs...
4) Man of the People...
5) Civilian Harm...
6) Civilian Resistance...
7) Bandwagoning...
8) Humanizing...
9) Card Stacking...
10) Mockery...

80margd
Mrz. 1, 2022, 7:15 am

Visa, Mastercard block Russian financial institutions after sanctions
Maria Ponnezhath | March 1, 2022

U.S. payment card firms Visa Inc (V.N) and Mastercard Inc have blocked multiple Russian financial institutions from their network, complying with government sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Visa said on Monday it was taking prompt action to ensure compliance with applicable sanctions, adding that it will donate $2 million for humanitarian aid. Mastercard also promised to contribute $2 million...

https://www.reuters.com/business/mastercard-blocks-multiple-russian-financial-in...

81margd
Mrz. 1, 2022, 7:54 am

Major oil companies pull out of once-promising Russia
Peter Granitz | March 1, 2022

Shell announced on Monday it will cut ties with the Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom. The move follows a similar decision from BP, which on Sunday said it will sell it's shares in Russian-state firm Rosneft. The back-to-back announcements signal that even though Western countries have not sanctioned Russian energy firms, businesses no longer see operation in Russia as a safe investment.

Gazprom's and Rosneft's London-listed stocks suffered major losses on Monday, losing 42% and 53%, respectively....

(Shell) will also end its investment in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. ... Shell will also sell its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility, and its 50% stakes in two Siberian oil ventures...

Competitor BP will sell its 19.75% stake in Rosneft, which it's held since 2013...

The British government pressured both firms to cut ties with Russia...

Western energy companies flocked to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. In 2020, it was the world's third largest oil producer, behind the United States and Saudi Arabia. It's 10.5 million barrels per day accounts for 11% of the world's oil production...

On Tuesday, TotalEnergies said it would "no longer provide capital for new projects in Russia," but it did not say it would halt current production.

...Unlike Russian financial institutions, neither Gazprom nor Rosneft has been sanctioned.

"We haven't ruled that out," White House press secretary Jenn Psaki said Monday...

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083659975/oil-majors-pull-out-of-once-promising-...

82margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 1, 2022, 9:47 am

Elisabeth Tichy-Fisslberger* @tichy_e | 6:29 AM · Mar 1, 2022:
This morning in the UN Human Rights Council more than 140 diplomats refused to listen to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s futile attempt to justify unacceptable military aggression. Watch them leave the Council Chamber.
1:07 ( https://twitter.com/tichy_e/status/1498621337702703106 )

* Elisabeth Tichy-Fisslberger @tichy_e
Permanent Representative of Austria to the United Nations & other International Organisations in Geneva, MFA Austria
______________________________________________________
ETA
U.S. Delegation to the Conference on Disarmament @USAmbCD | 5:47 AM · Mar 1, 2022
As Putin’s brutal, unprovoked and unjustified attack on Ukraine intensifies, we #StandWithUkraine and our partners in refusing to listen to Lavrov’s lies in the Conference on Disarmament, a body that should be dedicated to preserving peace.

Conference on Disarmament Delegations Stand With Ukraine
Diplomats walk out of the Conference on Disarmament in protest as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov begins to speak.
0:33 ( https://twitter.com/USAmbCD/status/1498610873300144129 )

83margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 1, 2022, 9:30 am

>71 margd: "...Twitter, which has faced punitive site slowdowns from Russia, said on Saturday (26 February 2022) that its site was being restricted for users in the country..." https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/twitter-will-label-reduce-visibility-...

Kevin Harlow* 🇨🇦 🇺🇦@klharlow | 🤔8:24 PM · Feb 28, 2022:
...Here's a report I pulled today - tweets with the hashtag "myocarditis" stopped for 30+ hours. Tweets with the hashtag "covid19vaccine" stopped happening for even longer than that.

A bunch of antivax and generally disruptive hashtags are showing odd trends right now.

Graphs--cumulative tweets Feb 20-28, 2022
(#myocarditis?) https://twitter.com/klharlow/status/1498469152348114946/photo/1
(#covid19vaccine) https://twitter.com/klharlow/status/1498469152348114946/photo/2
(#Trudeaumustgo) https://twitter.com/klharlow/status/1498469152348114946/photo/3

* Kevin Harlow 🇨🇦 🇺🇦@klharlowhttp://B.Sc ME from @umanitoba. Ex ski racer. INTJ. Greyhound dad. Tinker gnome. (he/him)
_______________________________________________________

David Fisman (U of Toronto) @DFisman | 8:52 AM · Mar 1, 2022:
Amazing. @metromorning has had nearly 500 responses to this tweet. We’re on bot-holiday on twitter, and I was only able to find a single response that opposed proof of vaccination*

Metro Morning @metromorning 7:53 AM · Mar 1, 2022:
If a business you frequent continues asking for proof-of-vaccination, what will your reaction be?

* https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1498657487486173192/photo/1
______________________________________________________

Heather Cox Richardson (TDPR) (historian, Boston College ) @HC_Richardson | 8:55 AM · Mar 1, 2022:
Please take note of how dramatically Twitter has changed since the freezing of Russian assets.
Suddenly all those anti-Biden “American patriots” have disappeared.
_______________________________________________________

Peter Gleick 🇺🇸 (NAS) @PeterGleick | 10:06 AM · Feb 26, 2022:
What do you know. Russia is blocking Twitter and all of a sudden the number of trolls, climate deniers, and fake right-wing Americans in my Twitter feed has plummeted.

84margd
Mrz. 1, 2022, 9:42 am

Yikes! I don't see what it can be, but I hope Putin has an off-ramp that can avoid taking many more lives--in Ukraine and beyond...now and later.

The Recount @therecount | 11:08 AM · Feb 28, 2022:
“If Putin wants to kill himself, he doesn’t need to use nuclear arsenal. He has to do what the guy in Berlin did in a bunker in May 1945.”

— Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Nations
0:40 ( https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1498329367730077708 )

85John5918
Mrz. 1, 2022, 11:04 pm

China signals willingness to mediate in Ukraine-Russia war (Guardian)

China has signalled its willingness to play a mediator role in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as the war entered its sixth day. In his first phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, since the outbreak of the war, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said on Tuesday that Beijing “laments” the outbreak of the conflict and is “extremely concerned” about the harm to civilians, according to a Chinese readout. State-owned China Central Television said Kuleba asked China to use its influence to help mediate in its conflict with Russia. It added that Kuleba “asked for help in finding a diplomatic solution”...

86margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 2, 2022, 9:25 am

Idrees Ali (Reuters) @idreesali114 | 6:29 AM · Mar 2, 2022:
March 2 (Reuters) - The rouble plunged to a record low in Moscow of 110 to the dollar on Wednesday and the stock market remained closed as Russia's financial system staggered under the weight of Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Ole S Hansen (Saxo Bank) @Ole_S_Hansen | 6:34 AM · Mar 2, 2022:
The four Russian #oil and #gas majors trading in London (Moscow remains closed) have seen their combined market cap collapse by 95% or $190 billion since Putin ordered the attack on Ukraine last Thursday.
Graph--R oil gas market collapse, Jan-Mar 2022 ( https://twitter.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/1498985118043676677/photo/1 )

Anders Åslund (economist author) @anders_aslund | 8:06 AM · Mar 2, 2022:
https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1499008256978653188
Essentially, the West took down Russian finances in one day. The situation is likely to become worse than in 1998 because now there is no positive end. All Russia's capital markets appear to be wiped out & they are unlikely to return with anything less than profound reforms.
________________________________

Russian Embassy in Ottawa 1p statement on Ukraine (aka same old wild claims about Ukrainian "crimes")
March 1, 2022
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassyC/status/1498816008756383744/photo/1
-----------------------------------------
Russian embassy complaining about Cdn protests, demanding Canada, US protect its diplomats
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/russia-threatens-retaliation-after-hostile-...
________________________________

Russia will ban Western companies from exiting investments as BP and others dash for the door
Harry Robertson | Mar 1, 2022
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-ban-western-companies-exi...

Bill Browder (Global Magnitsky Campaign) @Billbrowder | 6:39 AM · Mar 2, 2022
https://twitter.com/Billbrowder
Credit Suisse asks investors to destroy documents linked to Russian oligarch and tycoon yacht loans.
Where I come from this might be called “obstruction of justice”.
Given all the trouble Credit Suisse is already in, I’m surprised they’d do this.

Credit Suisse asks investors to destroy oligarch loans documents
Swiss bank issues legal request to stem information leaks after FT story on lending unit
https://www.ft.com/content/bfea0069-4143-4e4b-accb-9712ce95a282 (Paywall)

87margd
Mrz. 2, 2022, 2:45 pm

Jon Ostrower (Editor, Air Current) @jonostrower | 8:28 PM · Mar 1, 2022:
BREAKING: Boeing is “suspending parts, maintenance and technical support services for Russian airlines.” The company will be suspending “major operations” at its Moscow offices, which do a significant amount of fleet support and design work.

Both Airbus and Boeing have announced suspension of parts and services to the Russian fleet, effectively cutting off maintenance support to Russian airlines. Local airlines have some capability to service their own, but they will quickly become paperweights.

The Russian commercial airline fleet is well and truly stuck without support from Airbus and Boeing. Even the Sukhoi Superjet parts distribution logistics operation is run through Lufthansa Technik, now offline with EU sanctions.

Even if Russian airlines could get support for the fleet, those airlines have costs that are denominated in dollars (like now terminated leases) while their revenues are in massively devalued rubles. An acute financial crisis looms for these airlines.

https://theaircurrent.com/industry-strategy/russia-ukraine-taiwan-civil-aerospac...

88margd
Mrz. 2, 2022, 3:28 pm

>81 margd: contd.

Exxon to exit Russia, leaving $4 bln in assets
Sabrina Valle | March 2, 2022

Exxon Mobil...on Tuesday said it would exit Russia oil and gas operations that it has valued at more than $4 billion and halt new investment as a result of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The decision will see Exxon pull out of managing large oil and gas production facilities on Sakhalin Island in Russia's Far East, and puts the fate of a proposed multi-billion dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility there in doubt...

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-mobil-begins-removing-us-employees...
_________________________________________________________
>84 margd: contd.

‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
Maura Reynolds | 02/28/2022

Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00...

89Limelite
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 2, 2022, 10:48 pm

Russians & Its Allies Speaking Out Against Putin's War

Russian citizens widely use VPN protocol to access the Internet and independent, eyewitness, and activist and NGO communications are flying online, reporting real-time protests, linking to anti-war petitions, tracking arrests of protestors, and even reporting fines for RUssians caught posting opposition opinions to their government's invavion of Ukraine, among other facts and events.

urdox
4 hours ago
Если мы сами уберем нашу хунту, часть преступлений России простят. Если это сделает за нас Украина и остальной цивилизованный мир- нам не простят это никогда. Подумаем о наших детях, внуках и правнуках.
4 hours ago
If we remove our junta ourselves, some of Russia's crimes will be forgiven. If Ukraine and the rest of the civilized world do this for us, we will never be forgiven for this. Let's think about our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren.
International reports are providing insights into Russian citizen opposition to Putin's War.
. . .the anti-war movement is gathering support on the Internet, mainly through social networks and encrypted messaging services such as Telegram and Signal.

On Twitter, the hashtag #ЯпротивВойны (I'm against the war) was trending in Russia on Tuesday. “This has been the case since the beginning of the war,” Stanislav told FRANCE 24.
(SNIP)
A number of petitions and open letters have been circulating on the Internet since the start of the invasion, including one from Russian lawyers citing Russian violations of the UN Charter. Russian scientists have posted a video on YouTube expressing their opposition to the war.
Radio Free Asia reports anti-Russia and anti-war voices are growing louder in China. Possibly, China's offer to mediate between Russia and Ukraine is in response to the growing distemper among its citizens that woke Xi to the reality that solidarity with Russia could cost him more than he wishes to risk with such an alliance. Xi may be between a legal rock and a hard place due to his country's treaty commitments to Ukraine.
Anti-Russian, anti-war voices grow louder in China in backlash against party line. More than 130 alumni of China's most prestigious universities have condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, calling on the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to honor a mutual security pact it signed with Kyiv in 1994.

"We strongly condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine and resolutely support the just struggle of the Ukrainian people to resist it, and defend their country," said the statement, signed by graduates of disparate departments from journalism to physics at Peking, Tsinghua and Renmin universities.

It cited a joint security pact signed between China and Ukraine that commits Beijing to "providing security guarantees" to Ukraine, in the event that Ukraine was the subject of foreign aggression.
If China doesn't take more significant steps to support Ukraine -- like, condemning Putin's aggression -- its thousands of stranded countrymen in Ukraine could be in danger from Ukrainian patriots just by seeking shelter in an overcrowded tunnel or bunker. That won't play well at home.

Finally, and humorously, civilian (gourmands?) combatants are fighting Putin's propaganda machine and censorship clampdown by writing 5***** restaurant reviews and posting them online so that the wealthy patrons will see them. If you'd like to help the Ukrainian defense efforts, use Google to find a "favorite" restaurant of yours in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Murmansk, even Sevastopol, then write a "favorable" review in terms of telling the diners the truth about the brutal aggression, and now war crimes against civilians, being perpetrated by Putin in their -- the Russian peoples' -- name. You just might author a real appetite killer for Putin's War.

90davidgn
Mrz. 2, 2022, 10:12 pm

On "seeing this coming," a full Twitter thread of strategic thinkers who warned it would.
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592

91John5918
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 2, 2022, 11:31 pm

10 ways to avoid a devastating war in Ukraine (America Magazine)

We can shift to a “just peace” framework. Rather than reacting to perceived threats by trying to one-up an adversary for the sake of “deterrence,” or identifying justifications for war, a just peace approach begins with identifying the root causes of a conflict, as well as the genuine needs of the adversaries. Some of the root causes of the current crisis are embedded in the complex history of Ukraine, which has been invaded by various empires over the centuries. Like all peoples, they have a right to self-determination and a responsibility to the global common good... Focusing on root causes, we can explore more effective strategic responses with three components of a just peace approach: cultivating skills to engage conflict constructively; breaking cycles of destructive conflict; and building sustainable peace. Each offers a set of norms that our actions should enhance, or at least not obstruct...

1. Avoiding threats of war...
2. Avoiding dehumanizing language...
3. Consistency between means and ends (“reflexivity”). The means used to manage the conflict must be consistent with the ends of partnership, well-being and a sustainable peace...
4. Integral disarmament. In the nuclear age, warfare is too risky for our fragile planet...
5. Acknowledgement of responsibility...
6. Conflict transformation...
7. Economic justice...
8. Nonviolent direct action...
9. Robust civil society...
10. Upholding human dignity...


This article from a week or so ago has been overtaken by events as war has now begun, but nevertheless its recommendations for the use of a lens of "just peace" rather than "just war" and the principles it lays out are still valid in trying to limit and transform the conflict.

On the same broad theme:

Putin’s aggression makes clear the case for an anti-war movement (Guardian)

Do we ever learn? Vladimir Putin joins a cast of monsters – from Saddam Hussein to Muammar Gaddafi – who were once blessed by western patronage... Putin’s Russia has been one of several human rights-abusing recipients of British arms sales... An economic model forged by Thatcherism transformed London into one of the world’s premier tax havens and a hub for “dirty money” from Russia and other human rights abusers...

This is why there is a need for an anti-war movement that unapologetically fights for a world that isn’t a playground for brutish great powers: in the here and now, that means focusing on Russian aggression... Anti-war activists should not obfuscate: Putin’s war is unprovoked and no mitigating circumstances exist. That doesn’t mean failing to understand how we ended up here... In the nuclear age, the role of an anti-war movement is to emphasise alternatives to a military escalation that could, all too swiftly, lead to the annihilation of human civilisation: above all else, an international order based on shared rules, diplomacy and cooperation. That means consistency... The anti-war movement fights for a heart in a heartless world. It resists a racist narrative summed up by one US news correspondent – “This isn’t Iraq or Afghanistan … This is a relatively civilised, relatively European city” – by emphasising that the invasion of Ukraine matters because they’re a people under attack, not because they’re Europeans, and that this empathy must be applied more universally. It also calls for a universal application of rules: if we stand against one aggressor, we should stand against them all... As Putin wages his war of aggression, the need for an anti-war movement that is as consistent as it is courageous is more urgent than ever. In the here and now, it condemns a criminal war of aggression, champions Ukraine’s right to resist, and demands those same principles are universally applied. It will find itself friendless among those who seek to gain politically or financially from war, but it should seek alliances instead from the grassroots of each country. It may not be popular, for now at least, but it will be right.


92John5918
Mrz. 2, 2022, 11:29 pm

UN votes to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calls for withdrawal (Guardian)

The United Nations has voted overwhelmingly for a resolution deploring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called for the immediate withdrawal of its forces, in a global expression of outrage that highlighted Russia’s increasing isolation. In an emergency session of the UN’s general assembly, 141 of the 193 member states voted for the resolution, 35 abstained, and five voted against. The only countries to vote no in support of Moscow were Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria. Longstanding allies Cuba and Nicaragua joined China in abstaining... The resolution is not legally binding, but is an expression of the views of the UN membership, aimed at increasing pressure on Moscow and its ally, Belarus. “It isn’t going to stop Russian forces in their stride, but it’s a pretty enormous diplomatic win for the Ukrainians and the US, and everyone who has got behind them,” Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group, said...

93margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 3, 2022, 7:15 am

Dmytro Kuleba* @DmytroKuleba | 3:37 AM · Mar 3, 2022:
This is a true People’s War for Ukraine. Putin has no chance of winning it.
On this photo civilians block Russian invaders in Energodar yesterday. One of hundreds of such photos and videos.
We need partners to help Ukraine defend itself. Especially in the air. Close the sky now!

Photo of thousands civilians (plus tires, sandbags, branches, etc.) blocking road ( https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1499302851339866113/photo/1 )

* Dmytro Kuleba@DmytroKuleba
Міністр закордонних справ України 🇺🇦 Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine

94margd
Mrz. 3, 2022, 7:27 am

UK at least is threatening to prosecute(?) NATO countries will not want to appear to be sending in personnel, so, say vets wearing US insignia don't provide Russia with "reason" to engage NATO countries?

Natasha Bertrand (CNN) @NatashaBertrand | 6:51 AM · Mar 3, 2022:
President Zelensky this morning said foreign fighters have begun to arrive in Ukraine to help battle the Russians. “Ukraine is already greeting foreign volunteers. (The) first 16,000 are already on their way to protect freedom and life for us, and for all,” he said.

95margd
Mrz. 3, 2022, 8:19 am

Russian truck maintenance + mud (!)

Trent Telenko (US DOD retired) @TrentTelenko
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944

This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵
1/
Photo of Russian vehicle ( https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944/photo/1 )

For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys. Short form: Military trucks need to be... 2/
Photo of US vehicle ( https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164252350857220/photo/1 )

...turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.
In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system.
CTIS Controller & CTIS diagram👇👇
3/
Photo ( https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164258726301704/photo/1 )
Diagram ( https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164258726301704/photo/2 )

One of the biggest reasons for the repositioning, per TACOM logistic Representatives, was that direct sunlight ages truck tires. The repositioning of Trucks in close parking prevents a lot of this sun rotting and cycling the CTIS keeps the tire sidewalls supple. 4/
Diagram ( https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164263142899714/photo/1 )

When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips. See early video: 5/
0:09 ( https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status/1498328319732981767 )

Now look at the same Pantsir-S1 tire sidewalls after the Ukrainians tried to tow or drive it out of the mud. The right rear tire fell apart because the rips in it were too big for the CTIS to keep aired up. No one exercised that vehicle for 1 year 6/
Photos
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498745704566730765/photo/1
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498745704566730765/photo/2

There is a huge operational level implication in this. If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1. They were too corrupt to exercise the trucks & wheeled AFV's now in Ukraine. The Russians simply cannot risk them off road during the Rasputitsa/Mud season 7/
Photo trucks mud ( https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164271900774400/photo/1 )

And there is photographic evidence of this. There are 60(+) Russian army trucks crowded & parked on this raised road bed to avoid the fate of the mud-bogged Pantsir-S1. 8/
Photo Russian convoy https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164276069744641/photo/1

Given the demonstrated levels of corruption in truck maintenance. There is no way in h--l that there are enough tires in the Russian army logistical system. So their wheeled AFV/truck park is as road bound as Russian Army columns were in the 1st Russo-Finnish War. 9/
Photo Russian trucks in Finland? ( https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164281421639680/photo/1 )

What that means is that as long as and where ever the Spring Rasputitsa is happening. The Russian Army attack front is three wheeled AFV's wide. When the Ukrainians can block the road with ATGM destroyed vehicles. They can move down either side of the road like Fins in 1939 10/
Photo Finns w reindeer ( https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164287083888640/photo/1 )

...destroying Russian truck columns. The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there. But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4-to-6 weeks. 11/End
Photo Finland? ( https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164291991314435/photo/1 )

96margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 3, 2022, 9:42 am

Opinion: Distraught dictator or rational actor? With Putin and Ukraine, the evidence is chilling.
David Ignatius | March 1, 2022

...The inescapable question, as the world watches Putin defy international law to hammer Ukraine, is whether he is a rational actor. Is he serving what he sees as Russia’s national interests, or is he a distraught dictator driven by an obsessive desire to force Ukraine into a neo-imperial dream?

...Putin’s behavior follows the script of Thomas Schelling in his classic 1960 study of brinkmanship, “The Strategy of Conflict.” Reckless behavior could be a useful bargaining tactic, Schelling argued. “A careless or even self-destructive attitude toward injury — 'I’ll cut a vein in my arm if you don’t let me …’ — can be a genuine strategic advantage; so can a cultivated inability to hear or comprehend, or a reputation for frequent lapses of self-control.”

...As we think about ladders of escalation, America is near the top of its chosen domain of economic war. Putin has brought that devastation on himself; he has doomed his presidency, irrevocably. But in the weeks and months ahead, America and its allies will need to allow Russia an exit ramp to escape this folly — or face ever-rising danger.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/01/putin-fixation-ukraine-irrati...
__________________________________________________

In Putin, intelligence analysts see an isolated leader who underestimated the West but could lash out if cornered
Shane Harris, John Hudson, Missy Ryan and Souad Mekhennet | March 1, 2022

...“We need to manage the escalatory risk,” said one European official. “Putin is not doing well. He’s shouting at staff. His war is behind schedule. This is a dangerous time for Putin.”...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/01/ukraine-cia-putin-an...

97margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 3, 2022, 9:15 am

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe ( 11:54 PM · Mar 2, 2022 )
Wow. The metropolitan of Simferopol and Crimea, which is ruled by Russia, addresses the mothers of Russian soldiers:
"What did you birth them for? So they would die in Ukraine as murderers?"

(Why are we blaming the women, though, when it's men who started this war?)

Quote Tweet
NEXTA @nexta_tv · 9h
Metropolitan Kliment of #Simferopol and #Crimea addressed the mothers of #Russia with powerful words.
2:06 ( https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1499246828910518273 )
__________________________________________
Translation of full remarks(?)

Jim Martineau* @Tetro75 · 8h
https://twitter.com/Tetro75/status/1499261011114835969
For six days of war, more than 6000 of them have been killed. I am horrified by the ideologues, who are working on the social networks and on television when they report that in Ukraine nothing is happening, knowing the real events on the ground.

The scariest thing is that the majority of bodies are unrecognizable, that you can only determine who they were by the remnants of their DNA. What do we return to you? Who do we return to you?

You gave birth to your children for what, that they should perish in Ukraine? As murderers? Stop the war. You are mothers. God gave you the sacrament of childbirth. And the biggest grief of all is for a mother to bury her children.

We stand at the threshold of Christ. God the Father wept for the sacrifice of his son, the son of God. All of this has come to your home. Wake up!

Correction to the last part: "I am standing before a cross. The Mother of God mourned the death of her son, God. All this has come to your home. Wake up." credit to @CathyYoung63, thanks for the assist!

It wasn't a perfect translation. Any errors in meaning, I take responsibility for. Feel free to @ me

* Jim Martineau @Tetro75
USAF Vet. I cast a wide net. My country is worth saving.

98margd
Mrz. 3, 2022, 10:46 am

Why Ukraine’s COVID-19 Problem Is Everyone’s Problem
Alice Park | March 2, 2022

Ukraine was struggling to control the COVID-19 pandemic even before Russian troops advanced on the country. It was slower to launch its COVID-19 vaccination campaigns than other European countries, and while the government encouraged citizens to get immunized, most people struggled to find a way to get the shot, didn’t feel the need to get vaccinated, or didn’t trust the safety and efficacy of the vaccine.

...“War is an infectious disease’s best friend,” says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “It challenges every public health program you can possibly have. It limits the medical care available for those who might be seriously ill, and often fosters transmission when so many people are crowded into bomb shelter locations and on trains. This is going to be the perfect storm of one serious challenge after another.”

https://time.com/6153254/ukraine-russia-war-covid-19/

99margd
Mrz. 3, 2022, 1:34 pm

>95 margd: contd.

Karl T. Muth* @KarlMuth | 7:52 PM · Mar 2, 2022:
Bit of a tire expert here. Those aren't Soviet-era heavy truck radials. Chinese military tires, and I believe specifically the Yellow Sea YS20. This is a tire I first encountered in Somalia and Sudan; it's a bad Chinese copy of the excellent Michelin XZL military tire design. 🇫🇷

* Karl T. Muth @KarlMuth
Invested in companies you've heard of, invented tech you've used. UChicago @ChicagoBooth; prev. @NorthwesternU & @NorthwesternLaw; ...

100John5918
Mrz. 3, 2022, 10:47 pm

Pacifists are being elbowed out of British politics just when we need them most (Guardian)

Being anti-war doesn’t mean being pro-Putin. Yet the peace movement has been demonised in the wake of the Ukraine crisis...

It’s a strange time to be a pacifist in Britain. Everywhere there are calls for an end to the war in Ukraine: from politicians to Premier League footballers to hand-painted pleas for peace in people’s front windows. The illegitimacy and brutality of the Russian invasion make it very easy to condemn. Yet at the same time, some of Britain’s most longstanding peace activists are being attacked and threatened. The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has accused the Stop the War coalition, which has opposed conflicts for more than 20 years, of being “at best … naive” and “at worst … showing solidarity with the aggressor”...

The statement in dispute does not seem outrageous. Published before the invasion, it “opposes any war over Ukraine”, calls for “a diplomatic settlement”, and criticises the British government for “aggressive posturing” and Nato for its “eastward expansion”. There is less criticism of Russia than its own, much more violent, expansionism merits; but little sign of the alleged “solidarity with the aggressor”. “We do not endorse the nature or conduct of either the Russian or Ukrainian regimes,” the statement says. “The crisis should be settled on a basis which recognises the right of the Ukrainian people to self-determination and addresses Russia’s security concerns.” Such even-handedness may seem horribly inappropriate now. But the interests of both sides may have to be satisfied if this crisis is ever going to end...

Sometimes, a lack of perspective undermines pacifism in general. Anti-war activists don’t always acknowledge how common violence is in peacetime – in coercive modern capitalism, for example. But more often, pacifists are more worldly than their critics claim. At a packed Stop the War rally in London on Wednesday, speakers talked about poverty, inequality and austerity as well as the military situation. Apologists for Russia were conspicuous by their absence. “There is nothing progressive about Putin’s Russia,” said the longstanding anti-war campaigner Tariq Ali, to loud applause. Corbyn accurately described it as a regime of “robber barons”...

101margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 4, 2022, 8:39 am

Update (Ukrainian Army General Staff):

Victor Kovalenko* @MrKovalenko | 1:02 AM · Mar 4, 2022:
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1499626191384457218
As for 6am, March 4 local time, the #Russian Army ran out of initial troops & reserves which should bring #Ukraine to knees by March 6. So, now Moscow is requesting additional reserves from all over the coutry to go fight inside #Ukraine. - Source: Gen. Staff. of Ukr Army.

2 By 6:20am local #Ukraine time (2 hours ago), firefighters stopped the fire at the training facility outside the Zaporizha nuclear power plant. No casualties.** - Source: Gen. Staff. of Ukr Army.

3 Fifteen (!) Russian battalions (approx. 4,500-6,000 troops) are currently approaching #Ukraine's capital #Kyiv from the west *** and south. At Makariv, they were slowed down. Very exposed. - Source: Gen. Staff. of Ukr Army.

4 Today the #Russian Army abandoned its initial plans to capture the strategic #Gostomel airfield near #Ukraine's capital #Kyiv and retreated. - Source: Gen. Staff. of Ukr Army. ****

5 Fourteen Russian battalions are trying to get close to the #Ukraine's capital #Kyiv from the northeast but they are still far away and suffer from resistance which slows them down. - Source: Gen. Staff. of Ukr Army.

6 Unfortunately, the Russian Army encirled #Mariupol city on Azov Sea with 7 battalions of the 8th Russian Army. - Source: Gen. Staff. of Ukr Army.

* Victor Kovalenko @MrKovalenko
Former #Ukrainian journalist and editor. Also #Ukraine Army veteran who helped to repel Putin's invasion in 2014-2015. History aficionado. Michigan, United States.

** Ukrainian power producer DTEK switches on nine extra coal-fired units after Russia took control of Europe’s largest nuclear plant in the east of the country https://twitter.com/business/status/1499721925618192390

*** The Russian Army continues its attacks on Zhytomyr. (regional admin center, ~50 mi w of Kyiv)
Incredible destruction in the city. 0:08 https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499655898956017665
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1499705344758632453

**** R may have retreated but looks like they did some damage, and that Russian TV had time to document it: https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1499642765155737602 Sounds like a rare peek for Russians of the battlefield that is Ukraine? The destroyed AN225 plane is the world's largest: https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/antonov-an-225-largest-plane-destroyed-ukrain...

Many Russian soldiers killed after an attack on Hostomel near Kyiv went wrong this morning. The Ukrainian defenses remain strong in the area. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499717549872885765

102margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 4, 2022, 8:41 am

Not holding my breath, but hopeful that maybe...sometime down the line...
Can't help thinking, though, about how difficult it can be to remove from my dog's mouth, fried chicken bones she found in a parking lot.
Also, Zelensky is laying groundwork for R to pay to repair damage it has caused. If that is condition for sanction removal, R would be a long time digging itself out.

Polina Ivanova (Financial Times) @polinaivanovva | 6:59 AM · Mar 4, 2022
Extraordinary comments from Putin just now.
Says Russia has “no ill intentions towards its neighbours” and calls for international cooperation to return, for relations to normalize
0:41 ( https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1499716111188860928 )

"We see no need to exacerbate the situation or worsen our relations," Putin said. "I think everyone should think about normalising relations and cooperating normally."

Erm (margd: enterprise risk management?)

No ill intentions, that is, except, you know, invasion
________________________________________

Putin says Russia's neighbours should not escalate tensions
Reuters | 3/4/2022 / 6:49 AM EST

President Vladimir Putin urged Russia's neighbours on Friday not to escalate tensions, eight days after Moscow sent its forces into Ukraine.

"There are no bad intentions towards our neighbours. And I would also advise them not to escalate the situation, not to introduce any restrictions. We fulfil all our obligations and will continue to fulfil them," Putin said in televised remarks.

"We do not see any need here to aggravate or worsen our relations. And all our actions, if they arise, they always arise exclusively in response to some unfriendly actions, actions against the Russian Federation."

Putin was shown on TV taking part online, from his residence outside Moscow, in a flag-raising ceremony for a ferry in northern Russia.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-nuc...

103kiparsky
Mrz. 4, 2022, 8:29 am

>102 margd: R would be a long time digging itself out.

Which in itself could be problematic.

104margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 4, 2022, 9:23 am

>103 kiparsky: Problematic indeed if past is any guide:
How WW1 Led To WW2...Germany was defeated and forced to take all blame for WW1 which led to WW2. They were forced to admit the war was their fault, pay all damages, and lose their military. https://www.studymode.com/essays/Ww1-Led-Ww2-65005246.html

Meanwhile cooperators Finland and Sweden are leaning toward joining NATO:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499519445869502469
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499737166200594434

Will Finland and Sweden join NATO now?
Anna Wieslander and Christopher Skaluba | March 3, 2022
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/will-finland-and-sweden-jo...

105margd
Mrz. 4, 2022, 9:37 am

Assassination attempt on Zelensky are short-sighted on Putin's part--Zelensky may be the only negotiating partner who can give Putin cover. Ditto, calls for Putin's assassination won't bring HIM to the negotiating table...

Third Assassination Attempt on Zelensky Fails...
Barbie Latza Nadeau | Updated Mar. 04, 2022
An aide to the Ukrainian president credits “Russian spies” for tipping them off to at least three assassination attempts.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/third-hit-on-ukraine-president-zelensky-fails-as-r...
----------------------------------------------

Sen. Lindsey Graham calls for Russians to carry out a Julius Caesar-style assassination of Vladimir Putin: 'Is there a Brutus in Russia?'
Cheryl Teh | 3/4/2022
https://www.businessinsider.com/lindsey-graham-calls-for-brutus-in-russia-to-ass...

106margd
Mrz. 4, 2022, 10:51 am

>83 margd: contd.

‘Bot holiday’: Covid disinformation down as social media pivot to Ukraine
Melody Schreiber | Fri 4 Mar 2022

The usual deluge of invective prompted by coronavirus and vaccine issues is absent – Russia’s invasion may be a factor
‘We’re seeing a seismic shift in the disinformation sphere towards Ukraine entirely,’ said Joel Finkelstein, co-founder of the National Contagion Research Institute...

Russia began limiting access to Twitter on Saturday, sanctions have been levied against those who could be financing disinformation sites and bot farms, and social media companies are more attuned to banning bots and accounts spreading misinformation during the conflict.

But something more coordinated may also be at play.

Conspiracy theories around the so-called “New World Order” – loosely defined conspiracies about shadowy global elites that run the world – have converged narrowly on Ukraine, according to emerging research.

“There’s actually been a doubling of New World Order conspiracies on Twitter since the invasion,” said Joel Finkelstein, the chief science officer and co-founder of the National Contagion Research Institute, which maps online campaigns around public health, economic issues and geopolitics.

At the same time, “whereas before the topics were very diverse – it was Ukraine and Canada and the virus and the global economy – now the entire conversation is about Ukraine,” he said. “We’re seeing a seismic shift in the disinformation sphere towards Ukraine entirely.”

Online activity has surged overall by 20% since the invasion, and new hashtags have cropped up around Ukraine that seem to be coordinated with bot-like activity, Finkelstein said...

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/mar/04/bot-holiday-covid-misinformation-u...

107John5918
Mrz. 4, 2022, 12:13 pm

The Ukraine War: A Global Crisis? (International Crisis Group)

The overwhelming support for a UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion shows that countries around the world see it as attacking global norms. Yet policymakers also view the crisis in terms of their own national interest. Crisis Group experts assess the war from thirteen vantage points...

108margd
Mrz. 4, 2022, 1:42 pm

>101 margd: 4 **** contd.

Steve Trimble* @TheDEWLine | 7:05 AM · Mar 3, 2022
https://twitter.com/TheDEWLine/status/1499355362327203847
The battle of Hostomel was probably an over-looked turning point. It seems the goal of the Russian air assault was to secure the airfield for Il-76s to land BTGs from Belarus for a thunder run into the capital. The NATO-trained 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade stopped them.

Quote Tweet
IgorGirkin @GirkinGirkin · Mar 3
Гостомель, 25 или 26 фев
O:06 ( https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1499348790033240065 )

* Steve Trimble @TheDEWLine
Distant Early Warning (DEW) for global military aviation news. Defense Editor for @AviationWeek . Formerly @FG_Strim .

109stellarexplorer
Mrz. 4, 2022, 8:46 pm

>107 John5918: excellent piece - thank you!

110John5918
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 4, 2022, 11:54 pm

We at Stop the War condemn the invasion of Ukraine, and warmongers on all sides (Guardian)

Not since the immediate run-up to the Iraq war in 2003 has there been such a disinformation blitz about the anti-war movement. In the overheated atmosphere today we are accused of apologising for Putin’s brutal invasion and of being “fifth columnists” and “traitors”. In 2003 we were “friends of the Taliban” or “allies of Saddam”. It wasn’t true then and it’s not true now.

What is true is that there seems to be a permanent glitch in the matrix of the minds of war enthusiasts that prevents them from understanding that it is possible to oppose the policy of your own government and still oppose the actions of other governments. Our critics want to make it either/or. But it’s not. Unlike many of our detractors, we are consistent in opposing the misery, death, displacement and disruption that affects any country consumed by war. We feel horror and sickness when we see Putin’s invasion, his attacks on civilian populations and the shelling of a nuclear power station. We have welcomed, supported and publicised the actions of anti-war protesters in Russia. We wish our critics were as consistent...

The hypocrisies of the war supporters are only possible if we forget the context and history of modern wars. Ukraine did not come out of a clear blue sky. We cannot accept a narrative that ignores context and history and simply puts this invasion down to Putin’s designation as the latest “new Hitler” or to his mental state. To wilfully ignore the past, including the recent past, is a disservice to all those who want to end this war... It is not repeating Kremlin propaganda to point out these facts... This is not the first war in Europe since 1945... The anti-war movement has a better record of consistency in opposing wars than those who applaud and justify our own government’s wars while decrying the same behaviour by Putin. If the first casualty of war is truth, then the second must be the increasingly intolerant, repressive and anti-Russian sentiments across sections of British society...


Ukraine can absolutely win against Russia - Blinken (BBC)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told the BBC that he is convinced Ukraine can win its war with Russia...


Blinken is wrong. Nobody "wins" a war such as this. Everybody loses, and this sort of militaristic rhetoric doesn't help anybody.

South Sudan rejects Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Sudan Tribune)

South Sudan on Wednesday walked away from the decisions taken by her southern and northern neighbours, saying it would follow the decision of the African Union which condemned the invasion of Russia... In a statement issued last week, the continental body called on Russia and Ukraine to establish a ceasefire and open political negotiations... The Kenyan ambassador to UN Security Council condemned Russia’s decision to send troops into Ukraine. Martin Kimani said the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine stands breached. He added that the charter of the United Nations continues to wilt under the relentless assault of the powerful. Malek said the government of South Sudan supports a foreign policy that advocates and respects non-interference in the affairs of the other countries. "The government of the Republic of South Sudan stands with the position of the African Union which rejects the invasion of Ukraine by Russia"...

The statement by South Sudan’s government followed a statement by Gen Kainerugaba – who is the commander of Uganda’s land forces, that “the majority of mankind (that are non-white) support Russia’s stand in Ukraine”. Gen Kainerugaba and Sudan’s Gen Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Daglo, are considered the first the only senior military officers in Africa to publicly voice support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine...


Sudan remains open to naval base deal with Russia (Al-Monitor)

Following a weeklong visit to Moscow last week, the deputy head of Sudan’s military junta said that Khartoum remains open to the possibility of moving forward with a paused deal to allow Russia to establish a naval base on the Red Sea. Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (better known as Hemedti) also said Wednesday that he has no objection if Russia or any other country wants to open a base on Sudanese territory...

111DugsBooks
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 5, 2022, 1:28 am

>95 margd: “ operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.” Scenes like those roads seem to beg for relatively inexpensive artillery shells buried in the roadway and adjacent . >74 DugsBooks: Guessing they could be buried with post hole diggers or the auger drill attachments they have for farm tractors & detonated remotely by hardwire or a phone call as in the Mideast I hear.

112DugsBooks
Mrz. 5, 2022, 1:33 am

>110 John5918: “Blinken is wrong. Nobody "wins" a war such as this. Everybody loses, and this sort of militaristic rhetoric doesn't help anybody.”

Good point, turns into a war of attrition frequently.

113davidgn
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 5, 2022, 4:38 am

Just a side note, from one of the best aviation Youtubers:
The END of Russian Aviation!? | Mentour NOW!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o

It looks as though civil aviation in Russia is set to grind to a more or less complete halt within weeks. For example, the leased half of Aeroflot's fleet is going to have to go back to ireland or what have you, and the other, owned half will be next to impossible to maintain (particularly given Aeroflot's main maintenance facility is apparently in Germany). Even the nominally Russian-produced modern aircraft have sprawling international supply chains, so naturally, there will similar issues for all the other carriers.

114John5918
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 5, 2022, 5:00 am

>113 davidgn:

And there are reports that the world's only Antonov AN-225 heavy lift transport plane has been destroyed on the ground by Russian forces. If true, it was an act of wanton vandalism. The civilian aircraft was grounded for major repairs and so was of no conceivable military threat to Russia, but was a great asset to the international air transport industry.

World's largest plane destroyed in Ukraine (CNN)

The world's largest plane, the Antonov AN-225, has been destroyed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials, generating alarm and sadness among the aviation world in which it occupies almost cult status. The enormous aircraft, named "Mriya," or "dream" in Ukrainian, was parked at an airfield near Kyiv when it was attacked by "Russian occupants," Ukrainian authorities said, adding that they would rebuild the plane... There has been no independent confirmation of the aircraft's destruction. A tweet from the Antonov Company said it could not verify the "technical condition" of the aircraft until it had been inspected by experts. Ukrainian state defense company Ukroboronprom, which manages Antonov, on Sunday issued a statement saying the aircraft had been destroyed but would be rebuilt at Russia's expense -- a cost it put at $3 billion. "The restoration is estimated to take over 3 billion USD and over five years," the statement said. "Our task is to ensure that these costs are covered by the Russian Federation, which has caused intentional damage to Ukraine's aviation and the air cargo sector"....

115margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 9, 2022, 11:34 am

CNN EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: A source in Kherson (on the Black Sea near Crimea) just sent me this video of citizens protesting with Ukrainian flags,
chanting, “Kherson is Ukraine” and “Ukraine is above everything."
This is incredibly brave to do in Russian-occupied territory.
They're risking their lives.
1:20 ( https://twitter.com/noraneus/status/1500082566619086848 )
- Nora Neus (CNN) @noraneus | 7:15 AM · Mar 5, 2022
___________________________________________________

Liubov Tsybulska* @TsybulskaLiubov | 6:47 AM · Mar 5, 2022:
In Kyiv a woman knocked down a Russian drone from a balcony with a jar of cucumbers.
How did they expect to occupy this country?

* Liubov Tsybulska @TsybulskaLiubov
hybrid warfare expert. Founder of @StratcomCentre Former head of @HWAG_ucmc, an advisor to @MFA_Ukraine, @GeneralStaffUA
------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA:
Katya Gorchinskaya @kgorchinskaya | 9:28 AM · Mar 7, 2022:
http://Liga.net found the woman who knocked down a Russian drone with a jar of pickled tomatoes. She wants to set the record straight: those were NOT picked cucumbers. The gist of her story is in this thread 1/

"Це були помідори!". LIGA.Life знайшла киянку, яка збила ворожий дрон банкою консервації
LIGA.Life поспілкувалася з жінкою, яка кілька днів тому збила дрон банкою консервації – про цей випадок, сьогоднішнє життя в Києві та родину.
https://life.liga.net/istoriyi/article/eto-byli-pomidory-ligalife-nashla-kievlya...
------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA:
Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines | 1:45 PM · Mar 7, 2022:
The Ukrainian woman who took out a Russian drone with a jar of tomatoes (not pickles, she clarifies!) then cleaned up the glass fragments so that local dogs wouldn't cut their paws.
Just in case you were wondering what kind of people are having their homes shelled right now.

____________________________________________________

Illia Ponomarenko* 🇺🇦@IAPonomarenko | 5:44 AM · Mar 5, 2022 from Ukraine:
In many ways, this war is unique.
It’s carried out in a territory with 40 million people having a camera in the pocket.
Every single move is being reported online.
Everyone’s in the open.
You just can’t hide anything.
Good luck waging a war of occupation in this environment.

* Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦@IAPonomarenko
Defense reporter with The Kyiv Independent. War, weapons, beer & heavy metal. A village guy from Donbas in a crusade for something better.

116margd
Mrz. 5, 2022, 9:01 am

If you were wondering about whether the Russians really influence our social media, compare the list of top Facebook posts from a few weeks ago to this week, when Russia couldn't access its foreign cash reserves. Rather telling.

Photo-top 10 top-performing link posts FB 12 Feb
https://twitter.com/markhachman/status/1499617782299643907/photo/1

Photo-top 10 top-performing link posts FB 1d (3 March?)
https://twitter.com/markhachman/status/1499617782299643907/photo/2

- Mark Hachman* @markhachman | 12:28 AM · Mar 4, 2022

* Mark Hachman @markhachman
Senior editor at PCWorld. Formerly: PCMag, ExtremeTech, BYTE, Slashdot, eWEEK, ReadWrite. ...

117margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 5, 2022, 9:17 am

Benjamin Wittes* @benjaminwittes | 8:54 AM · Mar 5, 2022:
A reminder that parading and making a spectacle of prisoners of war is a violation of the Geneva Conventions,
even when the good guys do it...

...if the Ukrainian army is doing it, it is not a grey area. If individuals are doing it on their own, that’s more complicated.
And yes, it is certainly a misdemeanor. That said, it is a no-no.

* Benjamin Wittes @benjaminwittes
Senior Fellow at the @BrookingsInst . Editor in Chief of @lawfareblog ...

118margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 5, 2022, 9:32 am

Susan Glasser (New Yorker) @sbg1 | 1:32 PM · Mar 4, 2022
John Bolton tells ⁦@washingtonpost
⁩Trump was just waiting for 2nd term before pulling out of NATO and destroying the alliance now trying to counter Putin’s war…

Trumpists in denial, but Trump record on Putin, NATO, Ukraine is clear:
25:38 ( https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1499815016891138054 )
--------------------------------------------------

John Bolton says Donald Trump’s only interest in Ukraine was how it impacted his political future (2:20)
Mar 4, 2022

“Donald Trump cared one thing about Ukraine, which was how does it affect his political future? And I can say that every other senior national security adviser–Mike Pompeo, Mark Esper at Defense– all of us felt that we needed to bolster Ukraine security, and were appalled at what Trump was doing… In a second Trump term, I think he may well have withdrawn from NATO. And I think Putin was waiting for that.” – John Bolton

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxQtqEL6J6k

119margd
Mrz. 5, 2022, 9:53 am

As Russia Pounds Ukraine, NATO Countries Rush In Javelins and Stingers
The American weapons are part of a $350 million package that President Biden authorized on Saturday.
Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt | March 4, 2022

The top U.S. military adviser to President Biden (Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staf) inspected the weapons transfer operation in an unannounced trip, meeting with troops and personnel from 22 countries who were working around the clock to unload the armaments for transport by land to the Ukrainian forces.

The American weaponry, which included the Javelins as well as small arms and munitions, was part of a $350 million package that Mr. Biden authorized on Saturday; within two days, one official said, the deliveries were landing at an airfield near the border that can process 17 airplanes a day. What began as a trickle — with only two or three planes arriving a day — is now a steady flow, the official said, with 14 loads from one airfield alone.

...The United States has delivered nearly 70 percent of the $350 million package to Ukraine’s military, a senior Pentagon official said on Friday. It expects to complete the entire shipment in the next week or so.

The shipment of weapons — which also includes Stinger antiaircraft missiles from U.S. military stockpiles, mostly in Germany — represents the largest single authorized transfer of arms from U.S. military warehouses to another country...

U.S. officials said the weaponry, equipment and other war matériel were being flown to neighboring countries like Poland and Romania and then shipped over land into western Ukraine to commanders for distribution across the country.

...Russian fighter-bombers and ground forces have so far been too busy with a stiff resistance from Ukrainian air and land forces to attack the arms deliveries moving into western Ukraine. But American analysts warn that could quickly shift, especially as Russian forces in the south and east have picked up momentum in recent days. A northern advance on Kyiv, the capital, and Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, remained largely stalled, Pentagon officials said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-weapons.html

120margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 5, 2022, 10:32 am

Russian State TV Just Blew Up Putin’s ‘Nazi Ukraine’ Bullshit
Julia Davis | Mar. 05, 2022

...Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state TV on Friday that President Vladimir Putin was directly involved in making command decisions with respect to Russia’s military activities in Ukraine.

...on the state TV show The Evening With Vladimir Soloviev...(lawmaker Andrei Kartapolov, who heads the Russian parliament’s defense committee) claimed that Russian troops were ordered to seize Ukraine’s nuclear plants to prevent Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky “from building a dirty bomb” with which to attack Russia.

...As to the Kremlin’s aims in Ukraine, Kartapolov explained them in detail: “Our position is clear and transparent, including during these negotiations. The essence is as follows: Ukraine will recognize Crimea as the Russian Federation, as well as DPR/LPR (‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’) within their administrative borders. Ukraine will change its social and state system and become a neutral, demilitarized country. That’s it.”

Lawmaker Konstantin Zatulin, who is deputy chairman of the Duma commission on relations with the former Soviet Union, seemed unsettled by Kartapolov’s revelations and angrily replied: “When a horse has something to say, a saddle shouldn’t be the one to talk. This is not the time to tell everything. First of all, we’re not the ones who should be saying that, they (Ukrainians) need to be the ones who say that. But that situation has to ripen first. It won’t be done during the thunder of cannons. Until our operation has concluded, it won’t be clear what ‘denazification’ will consist of.”

...As for “demilitarization,” Zatulin said that even specific kinds of weapons Russia wants to eliminate from Ukraine are being discussed during talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.

...Soloviev noted: “Ukraine is sinking into the stone age. Most of its territories are on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe.” Nonetheless, he encouraged the Russian government not to stop their “military operation”...

Soloviev added: “It should be understood that this is not a war against Ukraine or the Ukrainian people, but a military operation... of denazification and demilitarization of NATO’s fist that was directed at us.” Zatulin chimed in: “This is a war against the West, a war against NATO.” The host agreed: “Of course. This is a battle from the war that started on May 9, 1945, when they—pretending that they’re with us—were getting ready to destroy us.” ...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-just-blew-up-putins-nazi-ukraine-...

121margd
Mrz. 5, 2022, 10:52 am

Mariupol, port city e of Crimea on the Azov:
>30 margd: >57 margd: >120 margd: "Soloviev noted: “Ukraine is sinking into the stone age. Most of its territories are on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe.""

‘The only thing we hear is blasts’: Residents say the port city of Mariupol is nearing a ‘humanitarian disaster.’
Masha Froliak, Ainara Tiefenthäler, Haley Willis, Dmitriy Khavin and Sarah Kerr | March 4, 2022, 3:45 p.m. ET

...Mikhail Vershinin, head of the Donetsk Regional Patrol Police, told The Times that once residents had restored their connections, he expected “horrible footage” to flood the internet. He described the situation as being on “the brink of a humanitarian disaster.”

“People are in a pitch dark city, in a cold room, with no water and no connection,” said Diana Berg, 42, who fled Mariupol on Thursday. “The only thing we hear is blasts, and it is nonstop. Bombing and shelling don’t stop at all, not during the day or night.”...

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/04/world/russia-ukraine#the-only-thing-we-h...

122Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 5, 2022, 12:55 pm

https://www.businessinsider.com/bolton-putin-waiting-for-trump-to-withdraw-from-...
Former National Security Advisor John Bolton says 'Putin was waiting' for Trump to withdraw the United States from NATO in his second term

***
A mere 8 million voters kept Trump from getting a second term and fulfilling Putin's wish that the U.S. would leave NATO.

123DugsBooks
Mrz. 5, 2022, 7:45 pm

Great informative posts in this thread, better than I can get from newscasts

124John5918
Mrz. 5, 2022, 11:17 pm

The U.S. Hypocrisy on Ukraine (The Progressive Magazine)

Though U.S. and NATO policy in recent years has contributed to the current tragedy unfolding in Ukraine, responsibility rests unequivocally with the Kremlin. It is an illegal war of aggression which has quite deservedly resulted in worldwide condemnation. Media coverage has been sympathetic to the civilian victims of the invasion and the Ukrainian resistance. Again, while it raises questions about why there hasn’t been a comparable response when the victims weren’t white, Christian Europeans, or when the aggressor was the United States or a U.S. ally, it is refreshing to see this acknowledgement of the horrors of war. There’s no excusing the invasion, but the double standards and hypocrisy coming out of Washington, D.C., are quite striking.

For example, President Joe Biden has correctly asserted that “nations have a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The United States, however, has been the only government in the world to formally recognize Israel’s illegal annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights and Morocco’s annexation of the entire nation of Western Sahara, both seized by force in defiance of the United Nations... In addition, Biden’s claim that the United States “always stands up to bullies” would be news to the Yemenis, Lebanese, Palestinians, and others who have been subjected to massive military attacks by U.S.-armed allies. His insistence that “we stand for freedom” is contradicted by his administration’s support for brutal dictatorships in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and elsewhere. Criticism of Russia’s veto of the U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the invasion rings hollow in light of successive U.S. vetoes of resolutions challenging the U.S. invasions of Grenada and Panama, U.S. attacks on Nicaragua, and Israel’s invasions of Lebanon. And, of course, Biden’s insistence that countries must not invade other nations on false pretenses is incredibly hypocritical considering his strident support as a Senator for the U.S. invasion of Iraq on the deceptive grounds that Saddam Hussein had somehow amassed vast arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, a nuclear program, and sophisticated delivery systems...

125margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 7:38 am

Via Alexander Vindman, below is Igor Sushko's translation of FSB Facebook post, a fascinating read:
https://www.facebook.com/100002653071498/posts/4811633942268327/ .

( OSTENSIBLY a FSB post--could be Ukrainian psy-ops(?):
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500196510054637569?t=rGFruX99joVfy0n5y... )

FSB is a successor of KGB. If true, fog of Putin was felt by intelligence (sanctions) as well as military. Chechen's loss. Economically, Russia can continue until June. Predicts that occupation would require huge investment in manpower. "Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?" Logistics. Losses (2,000? 10,000?). Dirty bombs. Nukes.

Igor Sushko* @igorsushko | 9:44 PM · Mar 5, 2022
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937
🧵My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects...

* Igor Sushko @igorsushko
American racecar driver - competed in SUPER GT, Super Taikyu, and other series in Japan.

126margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 7:42 am

Visa and Mastercard Suspend Russian Operations
AnnaMaria Andriotis | March 5, 2022

Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. are suspending their Russian operations, the companies said Saturday.

The card networks said earlier this week that they would no longer handle card operations pertaining to sanctioned Russian banks. They are now extending that to all card issuers and merchant processors in Russia.

A major impact will be on foreigners who won’t be able to use their Visa or Mastercard cards for purchases in the country, whether online or in person. Russian cardholders are still able to use these cards for purchases in Russia, but their transactions will travel over other networks, mainly Russia's homegrown payments system, Mir.

Russian cardholders won’t likely be able to use their Visa- or Mastercard-branded cards outside the country. “All transactions initiated with Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country,” Visa said in a statement...

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/visa...

127margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 7:47 am

(10,000 Russian loss is Ukraine's figure. May or may not be true.)

olexander scherba * 🇺🇦@olex_scherba | 12:04 AM · Mar 6, 2022:
During the 10-year-long invasion in Afghanistan, USSR lost 15000.
During his 10 days in Ukraine, Putin lost over 10000.
Earth is burning under their feet.
Afghanistan brought an end to the Soviet empire. Seems they have learned nothing.
...

olexander scherba🇺🇦@olex_scherba
26 years in 🇺🇦 diplomatic service. Ukraine’s Ambassador to Austria (2014-2021). Author of “Undiplomatic Thoughts” (2021). Currently NAK Naftogaz.

128margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 7:50 am

The Recount @therecount | 12:00 PM · Mar 3, 2022:

“My life today is wonderful, I believe that I am needed… That’s the most important sense of life, that you are needed, that you are not just an emptiness that breathes and walks and eats something.”
— Pres. Zelenskyy, via translator, asked about his living conditions in Ukraine

0:26 ( https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1499429621955235845 )

129margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 8:03 am

Article below worth a read. As Russian forces gathered at Ukraine's border, Lt Col Vershinin writes of Russian logistics inside and outside its borders, in particular ramifications for Baltic and e European members of NATO, as well as partners such as Finland--but also foreshadowing of how invasion is playing out in Ukraine. Fuel trucks, ships, and RRs. Fascinating.

Glenn Kessler @GlennKesslerWP | 11:49 PM · Mar 5, 2022
(Editor/chief writer of Washington Post's Fact Checker)
Interesting article from November that predicts many of the problems faced by Russia now —> Feeding the Bear

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli
Alex Vershinin*| November 23, 2021

...the Russian government has built an ideal army for their strategy of “Active Defense.” The Russian government has built armed forces highly capable of fighting on home soil or near its frontier and striking deep with long-range fires. However, they are not capable of a sustained ground offensive far beyond Russian railroads without a major logistical halt or a massive mobilization of reserves...

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army...

* Lt. Col. Alex Vershinin commissioned as a second lieutenant, branched armor, in 2002. He has 10 years of frontline experience in Korea, Iraq, and Afghanistan, including four combat tours. Since 2014, he has worked as a modeling and simulations officer in concept development and experimentation field for NATO and the U.S. Army, including a tour at the U.S. Army Sustainment Battle Lab, where he led the experimentation scenario team.

130margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 8:05 am

Russia’s invasion prompts more assertive foreign policy from Japan
Michelle Ye Hee Lee | 3/5/2022Y

Japan this week announced it would accept refugees from Ukraine and send bulletproof vests to Kyiv — extraordinary measures taken by a country that has historically been unwelcoming to refugees and also has a self-imposed arms exports ban because of its militaristic past.

They were decisions made without “gaiatsu,” or foreign pressure, several Japanese officials note, underscoring Japan’s determination to show it will not stand for Moscow’s behavior, a stance that defies the pacifist values that undergird postwar Japanese identity.

Russia’s troubling actions — most recently its attack on a Ukrainian nuclear power plant — have triggered a deep alarm that is likely to accelerate Japan’s debate over defense and security policies that had been underway amid China’s growing territorial threat...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/05/japan-ukraine-russia-foreign-pol...

131margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 8:35 am

Peter Gleick* 🇺🇸@PeterGleick | 2:20 PM · Mar 5, 2022:
Thread: Increase fossil-fuel supply or reduce demand?
For those seeing the massive PR push to increase fracking, drilling, pumping, & digging for fossil fuels to reduce the blackmail value of Russian dependence, here's a short thread to address the confusion between expanding...

the supply of fossil fuels versus reducing demand.
First, yes, it’s possible to modestly increase fossil-fuel production at existing wells/mines. That will be done as the price of fossil fuels rises, but unless it happens where it can replace Russian fuels, it’s not a big help.

And any large increase in production will take months or years. Moreover, this simply increases our dependence on fossil fuels, which we already know is a BAD thing, politically, economically, & especially environmentally, since they are destroying the stability of the climate...

Reducing demand for fossil fuels, however, can be FAST, effective, save individuals money, and is far better for the environment. Moreover, there are TWO kinds of demand reduction: “conservation” and “efficiency.” Here's the difference:

“Conservation” refers to the short-term actions we might take to drive less, heat our homes a bit less, turn off the lights, use less water (especially hot water, which is a major energy consumer). These can happen FAST & involve, sometimes, a bit of personal inconvenience...

though we take these actions all the time during shortages, droughts (for water), etc.
Improving “efficiency,” on the other hand, includes actions and technologies that let us do the SAME things we do now, but with LESS energy (or water or other resources), such as...

replacing an inefficient gasoline car with a more efficient one (or better, an EV), or replacing incandescent light bulbs with LEDs that last for years & provide the same light with a fraction of the energy, or better insulating our homes to keep them more comfortable...

with less heating and cooling. These efficiency improvements permanently CUT demand for fossil fuels, save money, and cut emissions of climate-destroying gases, while also reducing our dependence on foreign, politically dangerous energy sources...

Both conservation & efficiency are cleaner, faster, cheaper, & effective in reducing demand. Our policymakers should be pushing them rather than looking to the old, inappropriate, dangerous, and dirty options of trying to expand fossil fuel production...

In short, increasing fossil-fuel supplies is ineffective, only benefits the corporations and special interests that depend on them, and further damages the environment. Cut demand with both conservation and efficiency; don’t increase extraction.


* Peter Gleick 🇺🇸@PeterGleick
Climate, water, energy. Science communication. National Academy of Sciences. MacArthur Fellow. Birds. Mandolin. 2018 Carl Sagan Prize.

132margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 6, 2022, 8:46 am

Visegrád 24* @visegrad24 | 2:11 PM · Mar 5, 2022:
In Nizhnekamsk (e of Moscow) workers at the Hemont plant (oil) went on a spontaneous strike
because they were not paid part of their salaries due to the sharp collapse of the ruble.

The sanctions are working!

From Еспресо
0:46 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1500187218023002120 )

* Visegrád 24 @visegrad24
News, politics, current affairs, history and culture from the Visegrad countries. ( Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, all members of the EU and of NATO)

133margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 8:50 am

Vladislav Davidzon* @VladDavidzon | 6:24 AM · Mar 5, 2022:
https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1500069662733778951
Denis Kireyev - one of the Ukrainian delegation at the Belarus peace talks in Homel is reported to have been killed by the Ukrainian SBU intel service while trying to escape arrest. He was suspected of treason by the Ukrainians. Extraordinary news.

Вбито члена першої гомельської делегації України Дениса Кірєєва
Дар'я Дурова (Політика) | 5.03.2022 13:26
https://news.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics/vbito-chlena-pershoi-gomelskoi-delegat...

* Vladislav Davidzon @VladDavidzon
Fellow @AtlanticCouncil
Columnist @tabletmag
Eastern Europe @aminterest
@ForeignPolicy
Founding editor @theodessareview
Author of “From Odessa with Love”

134margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 8:57 am

Lawfare @lawfareblog | 9:28 AM · Mar 5, 2022:
March 5, Turkey has closed the straits to all warships.
@CornellatYale argues Turkey should, under the 1936 Montreux Convention, restrict only Russian and Ukrainian warships

Turkey Must Close the Turkish Straits Only to Russian and Ukrainian Warships
Cornell Overfield | March 5, 2022
(analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, the Navy’s federally funded research and development center)

...The Montreux Convention

The Bosphorus and Dardanelles—together, the Turkish Straits—are the only path between the Mediterranean and Black seas. As a solution to the Straits Question that vexed Russian, Ottoman/Turkish, and British relations in the 19th and early 20th centuries, the Montreux Convention has governed navigation through the Turkish Straits since 1936, surviving both World War II and the Cold War. Under Article 24 of the convention, Turkey is charged with supervising “the execution of all the provisions … relating to the passage of vessels of war through the Straits.”

Under normal, peacetime rules, the convention regime guarantees the general right of warships of all states to transit the straits, but with a bias toward the six Black Sea riparian states (Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Russia). To transit, warships of all other states must not have a displacement greater than 15,000 tons and may not stay in the Black Sea longer than 21 days. Black Sea states are exempt from those restrictions.

However, three articles modify the normal, peacetime rules safeguarding warships’ right to transit during times of war: Articles 19, 20 and 21.

Article 19 applies when a war exists and Turkey is not party to the conflict. At such times, “warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation through the Straits” under the normal peacetime rules. However, warships of belligerent states “shall not … pass through the Straits” except if (a) one of the belligerents is acting under lawful collective defense rights obligations or (b) any belligerent warship must pass through the straits to return to its base.

Article 20 applies when Turkey itself is party to a war. In such cases, Turkey enjoys complete discretion over warship navigation through the straits, and no state, whether Black Sea or non-Black Sea, enjoys freedom of transit or navigation through the straits.

Article 21 applies a limited version of Article 20 powers when Turkey “considers itself to be threatened with imminent danger of war.” As in Article 20, the default, peacetime rules on warship navigation are suspended under Article 21. But unlike Article 20, under Article 21, ships separated from their bases by the straits must generally be allowed to transit to return home. Article 21 comes with an important procedural check. If Turkey invokes Article 21, it must notify other High Contracting Parties. If two-thirds of the “Council of the League of Nations” and half of the High Contracting Parties reject Turkey’s measures as unjustified, Turkey’s Article 21 invocation is suspended. If invoked today, some element of the United Nations, beginning with the General Assembly, might take up the issue in accordance with a 1946 U.N. resolution on the U.N.’s assumption of the League of Nations’ legal responsibilities.

In the current situation, Article 19 is the most defensible modification to the Montreux Convention’s warship navigation regime. Although Russia blocked a Security Council resolution condemning Russia for violating Article 2(4) of the U.N. Charter, Russia is plainly waging a conventional international war of aggression against Ukraine, and Turkey is not a party to the conflict. Turkey can therefore invoke Article 19 with respect to Russia and Ukraine...

https://www.lawfareblog.com/turkey-must-close-turkish-straits-only-russian-and-u...

135margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 9:09 am

The Russia-Ukraine Cyberwar Could Outlast the Shooting War
Cyberattacks by both sides could lead to the kind of collateral damage that is difficult to avoid in cyberspace
Christopher Mims | March 5, 2022

...On one side is Russia, a hacking superpower that began its digital assault on Ukraine months before its tanks rolled across the border, but whose efforts have so far been surprisingly limited. On the other side, Ukraine is a relative weakling in cyberspace that has become the first country to fight back against an invader by publicly calling up an international army of vigilante hackers. The country also has hundreds of thousands of tech workers inside and outside the country who are participating in hacks and cyberattacks on targets in Russia, according to Viktor Zhora, deputy chief of Ukraine’s government agency responsible for cybersecurity.

Graphic- Power rankings by capability and intent to pursue national objective by cyber means
( https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1500174043470655489/photo/1 )

Professionals who monitor cyber threats, both for governments and corporations, are concerned that the worst is yet to come, in the form of both direct attacks by Russia and collateral damage from attacks by both countries. Those specialists are on high alert because Russia, in particular, has a history of unleashing cyber weapons that wreak havoc far beyond the computers and networks that were their original targets.

...When Russia attacked Georgia in 2008, and again when it attacked Ukraine in 2014, it launched sophisticated cyberattacks that hijacked and rerouted internet traffic. In the case of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the attacks allowed Russia to take over communications networks.

That hasn’t happened this time in Ukraine, at least as of Friday. “Many of us thought the Russians had pre-positioned themselves inside the networks of a lot of infrastructure to disrupt it long in advance,” says Chester Wisniewski, a principal research scientist at cybersecurity firm Sophos. “But we haven’t really seen that, and it’s been so odd.”

There are many theories about why Russia hasn’t shut down critical infrastructure in this war. It could be that Russia didn’t want to damage systems its leaders thought it would be able to quickly take over in a blitzkrieg. It could also be that Russia tried but that Ukraine learned lessons in the past eight years that allowed it to fortify its systems against damaging intrusion. In any case, the lack of clarity reflects how difficult it is to predict what could come next.

...The longer the conflict in Ukraine drags on, and the more Western firms pull out of Russia, the more opportunity and incentive Russia has to use its most potent cyber weapons against companies and nations, says Rob Gurzeev, who was one of the chief technology officers at Israel’s Unit 8200—roughly the equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-russia-ukraine-cyberwar-could-outlast-the-shoot...

136margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 9:21 am

Naftali Bennett secretly travels to Moscow to meet with Putin, has 3 conversations with Zelensky, as Israel offers to mediate Russia-Ukraine crisis
Joshua Zitser and Katie Balevic | 3/6/2022
https://www.businessinsider.com/israeli-prime-minister-traveled-to-moscow-in-sec...
--------------------------------------------------

Back in February, a week or so ago:

Ukraine asks Israel to host and mediate negotiations with Russia.
Patrick Kingsley and Ronen Bergman | Feb. 25, 2022
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/25/world/russia-ukraine-war

137margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 9:25 am

A team of Russian soldiers wanted to use the elevator to reach the roof of an office building.
The Ukrainian administration of the building trapped them inside by cutting off the electricity.
The Ukrainians also used an industrial camera to take this commemorative photo.
Photo-soldiers in elevator ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1500147298520768515/photo/1 )

- Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 11:32 AM · Mar 5, 2022

138John5918
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 6, 2022, 11:25 am

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Disrespect for “sovereignty”: Southern Africa Bishops (ACI Africa)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrespects “the sovereignty of each nation”, the spokesperson of the Southern African Catholic Bishops Conference (SACBC), Archbishop Stephen Brislin, has said. In an interview with ACI Africa, the SACBC official said the Catholic leaders in the three countries of Botswana, Eswatini, and South Africa condemn the war and advocate for mediated dialogue.

“We condemn the violence and the aggression. We condemn the fact that the sovereignty of Ukraine has not been respected, and we must ask all countries to respect the sovereignty of each nation”, Archbishop Brislin said during the Thursday, March 3 interview.

The South African Archbishop added in reference to the ongoing war that started February 24 when Russia invaded Ukraine, “While this violence is terrible, and we condemn it, the fact of the matter is that some other countries seem to be able to encroach on the sovereignty of countries hostile to them, or which they perceive to be hostile to them; and they do so with a little bit more impunity.”

“The church cannot take sides in such things,” the Local Ordinary of South Africa’s Cape Town Archdiocese said in reference to the Russia-Ukraine violent conflict, and explained, “If we are going to condemn the violence of one country, we must condemn the violence of all countries”...


Interestingly the archbishop makes some of the same points as Stephen Zunes in >124 John5918: above.

Don't fight in Ukraine - military boss tells Britons (BBC)

Britons should not head to Ukraine to fight and should instead help however they can from the UK, the head of the armed forces has said. Speaking to the BBC, Adm Sir Tony Radakin rejected Ukraine's call for a no-fly zone saying it would not help tactically and might escalate fighting. He urged the West to have confidence that they were doing the "right thing". The invasion was not going well, Russia was becoming less powerful and it cannot continue, he said. On Britons wanting to join the fight, Adm Radakin said that the "sound of gunfire" was not "something you want to rush to", and urged people to support Ukraine in sensible ways from the UK...


Sensible words from the most senior military officer in the UK.

139margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 11:42 am

Russian Orthodox priests call for immediate end to war in Ukraine
Elise Ann Allen | Mar 6, 2022

ROME – A group of Russian Orthodox priests has launched an open petition calling for an immediate ceasefire to the war with Ukraine and criticized the suppression of non-violent protests demanding peace.

In the petition, which already has nearly 300 signatures after being launched earlier this week, the priests and archpriests said they are each appealing personally “to everyone on whom the cessation of the fratricidal war in Ukraine depends, with a call for reconciliation and an immediate ceasefire.”

...“We mourn the trial that our brothers and sisters in Ukraine were undeservedly subjected to,” they said, calling life a “priceless and unique gift” and calling for the safe return of all soldiers, Russian and Ukrainian, to their homes and families.

The priests lamented “the abyss that our children and grandchildren in Russia and Ukraine will have to overcome in order to once again begin to be friends with each other, respect and love each other.”

Stressing the value of mankind’s freedom as a God-given right, they said Ukraine ought to decide their future “on their own, not at gunpoint, without pressure from the West or the East.”

( The appeal is considered unusual because the Russian Orthodox Church, especially at the leadership level, has long been considered a reliable ally of the Kremlin. Notably, there are no metropolitans among the signatories to the petition, the most senior figures in the Russian Orthodox hierarchy. )

...Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill has yet to issue his own condemnation...has prayed for the safety and wellbeing of civilians and for a quick end to fighting. However, he has come under fire for his perceived lack of support for Ukrainian independence and territorial integrity.

During a divine liturgy in Moscow Feb. 27, just three days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Kirill said, “We must not let dark and hostile external forces laugh at us; we must do everything to maintain peace between our peoples and at the same time protect our common historical fatherland from all outside actions that can destroy this unity.”

Several Catholic and Orthodox leaders have appealed to Kirill to plead with Putin for an end to the war, including Romanian Orthodox Father Ioan Sauca, acting general secretary of the World Council of Churches; Polish Archbishop Stanislaw Gadecki of Poznan, president of the Polish bishops’ conference; the recently independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine; and Ukraine’s other Orthodox Church which is in full communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.

Kirill has not yet responded to any of these public appeals. However, he met with the Vatican’s envoy to Russia, Archbishop Giovanni D’Agnello, at the Moscow patriarchate March 3.

Pope Francis, while not yet mentioning Russia or Putin directly, has consistently appealed for dialogue and a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine. He is expected to meet with Kirill over the summer...

https://cruxnow.com/church-in-europe/2022/03/russian-orthodox-priests-call-for-i...

140margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 11:56 am

What If Russia Loses?
A Defeat for Moscow Won’t Be a Clear Victory for the West
Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage | March 4, 2022

...Putin will be unable to win this war on his preferred terms. Indeed, there are several ways in which he could ultimately lose...

IN THIS WAR, THERE ARE NO WINNERS...

LOST CAUSE
The consequences of a Russian loss in Ukraine would present Europe and the United States with fundamental challenges. Assuming Russia will be forced to withdraw one day, rebuilding Ukraine, with the political goal of welcoming it into the EU and NATO, will be a task of Herculean proportions. And the West must not fail Ukraine again. Alternatively, a weak form of Russian control over Ukraine could mean a fractured, destabilized area of continuous fighting with limited or no governance structures just east of NATO’s border. The humanitarian catastrophe would be unlike anything Europe has seen in decades.

No less worrisome is the prospect of a weakened and humiliated Russia, harboring revanchist impulses akin to those that festered in Germany after World War I. If Putin maintains his grip on power, Russia will become a pariah state, a rogue superpower with a chastened conventional military but with its nuclear arsenal intact. The guilt and stain of the Ukraine war will stay with Russian politics for decades; rare is the country that profits from a lost war. The futility of the costs spent on a lost war, the human toll, and the geopolitical decline will define the course of Russia and Russian foreign policy for many years to come, and it will be very difficult to imagine a liberal Russia emerging after the horrors of this war.

Even if Putin loses his grip on Russia, the country is unlikely to emerge as a pro-Western democracy. It could split apart, especially in the North Caucasus. Or it could become a nuclear-armed military dictatorship. Policymakers would not be wrong to hope for a better Russia and for the time when a post-Putin Russia could be genuinely integrated into Europe; they should do what they can to enable this eventuality, even as they resist Putin’s war. They would be foolish, however, not to prepare for darker possibilities.

History has shown that it is immensely difficult to build a stable international order with a revanchist, humiliated power near its center, especially one of the size and weight of Russia. To do so, the West would have to adopt an approach of continuous isolation and containment. Keeping Russia down and the United States in would become the priority for Europe in such a scenario, as Europe will have to bear the main burden of managing an isolated Russia after a lost war in Ukraine; Washington, for its part, would want to finally focus on China. China, in turn, could try to strengthen its influence over a weakened Russia—leading to exactly the kind of bloc-building and Chinese dominance the West wanted to prevent at the beginning of the 2020s.

PAY ANY PRICE?...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-04/what-if-russia-loses

141Molly3028
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 6, 2022, 1:18 pm

https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-proposes-escalating-war-by-having-u-s-fight...
Trump Proposes Escalating War by Having U.S. Fighter Jets ‘Bomb the Sh*t’ Out of Russia, Try to Frame China For It

***
This is the lunatic who Twilight-Zone voters voted for at least once or twice and who would gladly vote for again if fate grants them that opportunity in 2024. Future historians are going to have a lot of info to dissect involving the Trump era and its fallout in America.

142margd
Mrz. 6, 2022, 6:27 pm

Pope Francis sends cardinals to Ukraine, where ‘rivers of blood and tears flow’
Katie Yoder | March 6, 2022

...“Rivers of blood and tears are flowing in Ukraine,” he began his Angelus address. “It is not merely a military operation, but a war, which sows death, destruction, and misery.”

...His words echoed those of Major Archbishop Sviatoslav Shevchuk, the leader of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church. Two days after Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on Feb. 26, Shevchuk quoted his predecessor, the late Cardinal Josyf Slipyj, as describing the “mountains of corpses and rivers of blood” after Ukraine fell under Soviet rule.

....“The Holy See is ready to do everything, to put itself at the service of this peace,” he said, announcing that two cardinals recently traveled to Ukraine “to serve the people, to help.”

He named the two cardinals as papal almoner Cardinal Konrad Krajewski (Poland) and Cardinal Michael Czerny (Canada), interim prefect of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development.

“The presence of the two cardinals there is the presence not only of the pope, but of all the Christian people who want to get closer and say: ‘War is madness! Stop, please! Look at this cruelty!’” Pope Francis exclaimed.

...“The number of victims is increasing, as are the people fleeing, especially mothers and children. The need for humanitarian assistance in that troubled country is growing dramatically by the hour,” he warned.

“I make a heartfelt appeal for humanitarian corridors to be genuinely secured, and for aid to be guaranteed and access facilitated to the besieged areas,” he added, “in order to offer vital relief to our brothers and sisters oppressed by bombs and fear.”

...On Feb. 25, he visited the Russian Embassy to the Holy See, located near the Vatican. Catholic author George Weigel told Catholic World Report that the pope spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the visit. That same day, he called Shevchuk to express his support for peace.

The pope thanked two specific groups of people aiding the Ukrainian people: those welcoming refugees and local journalists.

...“Above all, I implore that the armed attacks cease and that negotiation — and common sense — prevail. And that international law be respected once again!” he declared...

https://www.catholicworldreport.com/2022/03/06/pope-francis-sends-cardinals-to-u...

143John5918
Mrz. 6, 2022, 11:00 pm

The people of Ukraine need our solidarity. But not just because they’re ‘like us’ (Guardian)

The invasion is brutal and unacceptable, an assault on democracy and sovereignty. We should oppose it just as we should oppose the Saudi assault on Yemen. We should support the people of Ukraine just as we should the people of Syria.

Not so, says the Telegraph’s Tim Stanley. On BBC Radio 4’s Thought for the Day slot, he insisted that Ukraine moves us more than Syria or Yemen because it is “a European country” and “the young men volunteering or being conscripted could be our sons or fathers”. Apparently, it’s so much more difficult to imagine what a father or son must feel facing the prospect of war in Yemen or Iraq. For the Tory lord and former MEP Daniel Hannan the Ukraine conflict is shocking because “they seem so like us”, living in “a European country” where “people watch Netflix and have Instagram accounts”. “Civilisation itself is under attack in Ukraine,” he concluded. Unlike in the destruction of Syria or Afghanistan.

Many others on both sides of the Atlantic have proffered similar views. What is expressed here is not simply the shock of witnessing a brutal conflict in a relatively peaceful and prosperous continent like Europe (though it’s barely 30 years since the Balkans were ripped apart by an even more vicious conflict). It is, rather, the belief that our capacity to empathise with people’s hopes, fears and suffering is defined by whether they are “like us”. It’s an argument that circumscribes solidarity along lines of identity...

144margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 7, 2022, 8:36 am

More than 4,500 antiwar protesters arrested in one day in Russia, group says
Brittany Shammas and Reis Thebault | 3/7/2022

...Authorities on Sunday arrested at least 4,640 people across 56 cities in Russia, reported OVD-Info, which was declared a foreign agent by Russian authorities last year during Putin’s sweeping suppression of activists, rights groups and opposition figures. The group reported multiple instances of excessive force against protesters, including beatings and use of stun guns. Among those detained were 13 journalists and 113 juveniles.

Russia’s interior ministry said earlier Sunday that police had arrested more than 3,500 people “for taking part in unauthorized rallies” in Moscow, St. Petersburg and elsewhere. The agency warned protesters that authorities would continue to target demonstrations and their organizers.

Footage from reporters in Russia showed a large police presence at demonstrations across the country, many clad in riot gear or driving armored trucks. Journalists with Western outlets — citing Russia’s newly-passed law restricting discussion of the invasion — spoke elliptically about the “situation” in Ukraine as they narrated protesters’ arrests.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, antiwar protests have occurred daily, OVD-Info reported. Russia has detained at least 13,000 protesters in 147 cities.

Spontaneous mass demonstrations are illegal in Russia, with protesters facing the possibility of fines and jail time.

The Kremlin’s crackdown on free expression has only intensified in recent days, with Putin signing into law a new measure that criminalizes the “dissemination of falsehoods about the use of Russia’s armed forces” — a broad provision that makes public displays of dissent dangerous and difficult. Violation of the new law is punishable by up to 15 years in prison...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/protest-arrests-russia/
_______________________________________________________

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty @RFERL | 7:46 PM · Mar 6, 2022
The mothers of Russian soldiers involved in Moscow's invasion of Ukraine angrily confronted the governor of Siberia's Kemerovo region, asking if their sons were "lied to" and being used as "cannon fodder." ...
1:08 ( https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1500633861012828163 )

'Sent As Cannon Fodder': Locals Confront Russian Governor Over 'Deceived' Soldiers In Ukraine
Carl Schreck | March 06, 2022

...Amateur footage of the testy exchange at a meeting between Sergei Tsivilyov, governor of the Kemerovo region, and locals in the city of Novokuznetsk was posted online as early as March 5...an analysis by RFE/RL reveals that the confrontation took place at the training base of riot police units...

...In an apparent effort to ease the audience's concerns, Tsivilyov likened the Kremlin's approach to the Ukraine invasion to the Soviet Union's bloody 1979-1989 war in Afghanistan that helped set the stage for the Soviet collapse.

"It was officially stated that we had declared war, and the first who entered Afghanistan didn't know where they were going," Tsivilyov said. "They found out when they already entered.”...

https://bit.ly/3KnjVUg | https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-soldiers-ukraine-cannon-fodder-governor/31739187...
------------------------------------------------------------------------

..."Within a few days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian independent news organisation Meduza published an article highlighting the shock and anger of the families of Russian conscripts when they discovered that their sons had been sent into battle. Russian law prohibits the use of conscripts in combat, so these parents had no reason to believe that their loved ones were in the front lines of Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. | According to the families that Meduza interviewed, conscripts are being coerced into signing contracts of voluntary service to change their status and provide some legal cover for sending them to war. | Changes to the status of conscripts is not the only information that Russia is keeping from soldiers’ families. According to a presidential decree that Putin signed in 2015, all military deaths are a state secret."...

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-families-of-unhappy-russian-conscripts-c...

145margd
Mrz. 7, 2022, 8:11 am

Rising prices for wheat and other foodstuffs expected--meaning that UN World Food Program's $ won't go as far...

Pray that US, Canada, France, Australia, Argentina, Germany, Kazakhstan and Poland don't suffer floods and droughts this year... Already in the southern hemisphere, "Argentina faces an uncertain and volatile harvest for the 2021/2022 season, with soaring summer temperatures triggering droughts and forest fires in the northern provinces." ( https://www.courthousenews.com/argentinas-grain-shipments-reach-record-level-yet... )

List of countries by wheat exports (Wikipedia)
1 Russia 37,267,014 tonnes
2 United States 26,131,626
3 Canada 26,110,509
4 France 19,792,597
5 Ukraine 18,055,673
6 Australia 10,400,418
7 Argentina 10,196,931
8 Germany 9,259,493
9 Kazakhstan 5,198,943
10 Poland 4,689,130
_______________________________________________________________

The effect of war on food prices
Douglas Fraser | 3/7/2022

As hostilities step up in Ukraine, the drumbeat of the wider economic war is getting louder. Energy and other commodity prices have been rising steeply, and the prospect of an embargo on Russian oil has accelerated that
Food prices were already rising before war broke out, due to Covid pandemic, supply chain disruption and energy prices increasing
As major exporters of grain and vegetable oil, conflict around the Black Sea is already disrupting shipping. As global commodities, food price inflation is gathering pace...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-60644376
________________________________________________________________

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Russian war in world's 'breadbasket' threatens food supply
The Associated Press | The Associated Press
March 06, 2022

Ukrainian farmers have been forced to neglect their fields as millions flee, fight or try to stay alive...

https://www.firstpost.com/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-russian-war-in-worlds-brea...

146margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 7, 2022, 9:05 am

Evacuation route out of Mariupol was mined, Red Cross says
Edited by Jeremy Gahagan | 3:47 (3/7/2022?)

Dominik Stillhart, director of operations for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), has been speaking with BBC Radio 4's Today programme...said some ICRC staff had tried to get out of (heavily shelled) Mariupol along an agreed route on Sunday, but soon realised "the road indicated to them was actually mined".

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60635927
_____________________________________________

Pentagon estimates 600 Russian missile launches as invasion meets ‘strong Ukrainian resistance’
Bryan Pietsch, Hannah Knowles and Dan Lamothe |

...In the south, the official said, Russian forces are encircling Mariupol, a city of 430,000 that has lost heat, water and power under a siege. Reports of widespread outages continue, the defense official said, and there is also fighting near Kherson and Mykolaiv.

...But Russia is responding to the Ukrainian resistance with harsher tactics, Britain said, with its military “targeting populated areas” such as Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol, likely in an effort to “break Ukrainian morale.”...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/07/russia-missile-launches-ukraine-...

147davidgn
Mrz. 7, 2022, 8:47 am

So who missed this report from a Sky News (UK) team that came under direct fire in an ambush near Kyiv and barely escaped?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyM_9P4igys

148remixproperty
Mrz. 7, 2022, 8:53 am

Dieser Benutzer wurde wegen Spammens entfernt.

149John5918
Mrz. 7, 2022, 8:53 am

>147 davidgn:

It was reported on the Journalism: a dangerous job, and oft well done (2022) thread on 5th March, post #45.

150davidgn
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 7, 2022, 8:55 am

>149 John5918: Nicely done.

151margd
Bearbeitet: Mrz. 7, 2022, 9:09 am

Arming Ukraine: 17,000 Anti-Tank Weapons in 6 Days and a Clandestine Cybercorps
David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt, Helene Cooper, Julian E. Barnes and Kenneth P. Vogel | March 6, 2022

The United States has walked to the edge of direct conflict with Russia in an operation that is reminiscent of the Berlin airlift of 1948-49, but far more complex.

So far, Russian forces have been so preoccupied in other parts of the country that they have not targeted the arms supply lines, but few think that can last.

...Mr. Zelensky welcomed the help so far, but repeated the criticism that he has made in public — that the aid was wildly insufficient to the task ahead. He asked for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, a shutdown of all Russian energy exports and a fresh supply of fighter jets.

...But as the weapons flow in and if efforts to interfere in Russian communications and computer networks escalate, some U.S. national security officials say they have a foreboding that such conflict is increasingly likely. The American legal definitions of what constitutes entering the war are not Mr. Putin’s definitions, one senior American national security official warned over the weekend, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the American overt and covert efforts to aid Ukraine.

...In Washington and Germany, intelligence officials race to merge satellite photographs with electronic intercepts of Russian military units, strip them of hints of how they were gathered, and beam them to Ukrainian military units within an hour or two...

...the battle of the present day that most strategists expected to mark the opening days of the war — over computer networks and the power grids and communications systems they control — has barely begun.

American officials say that is partly because of extensive work done to harden Ukraine’s networks after Russian attacks on its electric grid in 2015 and 2016. But experts say that cannot explain it all. Perhaps the Russians did not try very hard at the outset, or are holding their assets in reserve. Perhaps an American-led counteroffensive — part of what Gen. Paul M. Nakasone, the head of Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, calls a doctrine of “persistent engagement” in global networks — explains at least some of the absence...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html

152margd
Mrz. 7, 2022, 12:33 pm

>126 margd:

American Express Suspends Operations in Russia and Belarus
March 6, 2022

...Earlier today, we announced that we are suspending all operations in Russia. As a result, globally issued American Express cards will no longer work at merchants or ATMs in Russia. Additionally, cards issued locally in Russia by Russian banks will no longer work outside of the country on the American Express global network. We are also suspending all business operations in Belarus. This is in addition to the previous steps we have taken, which include halting our relationships with banks in Russia impacted by the U.S. and international government sanctions...

https://about.americanexpress.com/all-news/news-details/2022/American-Express-Su...

153aspirit
Mrz. 7, 2022, 2:04 pm

>145 margd: Pray that US, Canada, France, Australia, Argentina, Germany, Kazakhstan and Poland don't suffer floods and droughts this year...

I live in an agricultural area producing for multiple countries-- mainly the USA, Canada, and China-- and I was talking to food farmers last night. What I've heard is the prices of supplies such as fertilizer and livestock feed have increased about 60% since last month. That's abnormal. The demand for some of this season's seeds, replacement seedlings (for the next two to ten years of nuts and fruits), and poultry chicks (for eggs and meat) exceeds availability. We are locally also expecting both droughts and flooding along with extreme temperature ranges this year.

Meanwhile, so much timber is coming down that I suspect the world's paper shortages are driving up prices. That's good for the tree farmers who benefit immediately but (other than making me think about dust storms this autumn and the amount of carbon being released into the atmosphere) suggests higher paper prices for consumers in the near future.

Just a warning. We're all dealing with the consequences of badly managed pandemics and the global climate crisis along with war activities. Every government should prepare for rising food and raw materials costs, think about distribution problems, and plan for scarcity within the usual systems.

154margd
Mrz. 7, 2022, 2:15 pm

>153 aspirit: Thanks for info, though I hate to see my fears confirmed... Guess i'll start some seedlings, though, I'm lucky to be able to absorb increases in costs. Once again, poorer folk will suffer.

I'm wondering, too, if culls for Avian Flu will affect poultry availability going forward?

155margd
Mrz. 20, 2022, 8:31 am

>145 margd: "Pray that US, Canada, France, Australia, Argentina, Germany, Kazakhstan and Poland don't suffer floods and droughts this year... Already in the southern hemisphere, "Argentina faces an uncertain and volatile harvest for the 2021/2022 season, with soaring summer temperatures triggering droughts and forest fires in the northern provinces." ...

Canada--spring 2022 forecast for prairies ("Canada's breadbasket") is normal for temperature and precipitation (Whew!)

US--The US's corn and wheat belt will be warmer than normal this spring. A dry spring is expected below the border in much of those areas... (Pray harder!)

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/canada-spring-weather-forecast...