Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 6
Dies ist die Fortführung des Themas Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 5.
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1margd
Putin is purging some of his oldest, most loyal comrades who on Feb 15 urged reannexation of Ukraine, Belarus and Baltics.
Thread below on Vladislav Surkov's role in Putin's rise to Presidency. Article from Atlantic outlines Surkov's continuing influence in Russia, until now.
Kamil Galeev (The Wilson Center) @kamilkazani | 8:54 PM · Apr 11, 2022
Photos and comments at https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1513681957749596162
Vladislav Surkov is reportedly arrested. For years he ran Russian domestic politics and later Kremlin's policy in Ukraine. On Feb 15 he published an article calling for the war to reannex Ukraine, Belarus and Baltics. Today I'll discuss his role in Putin's rise to Presidency🧵
Photo-Surkov & Putin ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1513681957749596162/photo/1 )
-----------------------------------------------------
The Hidden Author of Putinism
How Vladislav Surkov invented the new Russia
Peter Pomerantsev | November 7, 2014
...As the former deputy head of the presidential administration, later deputy prime minister and then assistant to the president on foreign affairs, Surkov has directed Russian society like one great reality show. He claps once and a new political party appears. He claps again and creates Nashi, the Russian equivalent of the Hitler Youth, who are trained for street battles with potential pro-democracy supporters and burn books by unpatriotic writers on Red Square. As deputy head of the administration he would meet once a week with the heads of the television channels in his Kremlin office, instructing them on whom to attack and whom to defend, who is allowed on TV and who is banned, how the president is to be presented, and the very language and categories the country thinks and feels in. Russia’s Ostankino TV presenters, instructed by Surkov, pluck a theme (oligarchs, America, the Middle East) and speak for 20 minutes, hinting, nudging, winking, insinuating, though rarely ever saying anything directly, repeating words like “them” and “the enemy” endlessly until they are imprinted on the mind.
They repeat the great mantras of the era: The president is the president of “stability,” the antithesis to the era of “confusion and twilight” in the 1990s. “Stability”—the word is repeated again and again in a myriad seemingly irrelevant contexts until it echoes and tolls like a great bell and seems to mean everything good; anyone who opposes the president is an enemy of the great God of “stability.” “Effective manager,” a term quarried from Western corporate speak, is transmuted into a term to venerate the president as the most “effective manager” of all. “Effective” becomes the raison d’être for everything: Stalin was an “effective manager” who had to make sacrifices for the sake of being “effective.” The words trickle into the streets: “Our relationship is not effective” lovers tell each other when they break up. “Effective,” “stability”: No one can quite define what they actually mean, and as the city transforms and surges, everyone senses things are the very opposite of stable, and certainly nothing is “effective,” but the way Surkov and his puppets use them the words have taken on a life of their own and act like falling axes over anyone who is in any way disloyal...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/hidden-author-putinism...
Thread below on Vladislav Surkov's role in Putin's rise to Presidency. Article from Atlantic outlines Surkov's continuing influence in Russia, until now.
Kamil Galeev (The Wilson Center) @kamilkazani | 8:54 PM · Apr 11, 2022
Photos and comments at https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1513681957749596162
Vladislav Surkov is reportedly arrested. For years he ran Russian domestic politics and later Kremlin's policy in Ukraine. On Feb 15 he published an article calling for the war to reannex Ukraine, Belarus and Baltics. Today I'll discuss his role in Putin's rise to Presidency🧵
Photo-Surkov & Putin ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1513681957749596162/photo/1 )
-----------------------------------------------------
The Hidden Author of Putinism
How Vladislav Surkov invented the new Russia
Peter Pomerantsev | November 7, 2014
...As the former deputy head of the presidential administration, later deputy prime minister and then assistant to the president on foreign affairs, Surkov has directed Russian society like one great reality show. He claps once and a new political party appears. He claps again and creates Nashi, the Russian equivalent of the Hitler Youth, who are trained for street battles with potential pro-democracy supporters and burn books by unpatriotic writers on Red Square. As deputy head of the administration he would meet once a week with the heads of the television channels in his Kremlin office, instructing them on whom to attack and whom to defend, who is allowed on TV and who is banned, how the president is to be presented, and the very language and categories the country thinks and feels in. Russia’s Ostankino TV presenters, instructed by Surkov, pluck a theme (oligarchs, America, the Middle East) and speak for 20 minutes, hinting, nudging, winking, insinuating, though rarely ever saying anything directly, repeating words like “them” and “the enemy” endlessly until they are imprinted on the mind.
They repeat the great mantras of the era: The president is the president of “stability,” the antithesis to the era of “confusion and twilight” in the 1990s. “Stability”—the word is repeated again and again in a myriad seemingly irrelevant contexts until it echoes and tolls like a great bell and seems to mean everything good; anyone who opposes the president is an enemy of the great God of “stability.” “Effective manager,” a term quarried from Western corporate speak, is transmuted into a term to venerate the president as the most “effective manager” of all. “Effective” becomes the raison d’être for everything: Stalin was an “effective manager” who had to make sacrifices for the sake of being “effective.” The words trickle into the streets: “Our relationship is not effective” lovers tell each other when they break up. “Effective,” “stability”: No one can quite define what they actually mean, and as the city transforms and surges, everyone senses things are the very opposite of stable, and certainly nothing is “effective,” but the way Surkov and his puppets use them the words have taken on a life of their own and act like falling axes over anyone who is in any way disloyal...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/hidden-author-putinism...
2margd
Putin ‘purges’ 150 FSB agents in response to Russia’s botched war with Ukraine
Tom Ball | April 11 2022
In a sign of President Putin’s fury over the failures of the invasion, about 150 Federal Security Bureau (FSB) officers have been dismissed, including some who have been arrested.
...All of those ousted were employees of the Fifth Service, a division set up in 1998, when Putin was director of the FSB to carry out operations in the countries of the former Soviet Union with the aim of keeping them within Russia’s orbit.
FSB officers carried out searches at more than 20 addresses around Moscow of colleagues suspected of being in contact with journalists
...The service’s former chief, Sergei Beseda, 68, has been sent to Lefortovo prison in Moscow after he was placed under house arrest last month. The prison was used by the NKVD, the KGB’s predecessor, for interrogation and torture during Stalin’s Great Purge of the 1930s.
Beseda, who remains under investigation, is being held on the official charge of embezzlement. In reality, however, the basis for his arrest is the botched invasion, which has been blamed on poor intelligence concerning the political situation in Ukraine.
...Andrei Soldatov, an expert on the Russian security services, said that in sending Beseda to Lefortovo, Putin had sent a “very strong message” to other elites in Russia...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-purges-150-fsb-agents-in-response-to-ru...
Tom Ball | April 11 2022
In a sign of President Putin’s fury over the failures of the invasion, about 150 Federal Security Bureau (FSB) officers have been dismissed, including some who have been arrested.
...All of those ousted were employees of the Fifth Service, a division set up in 1998, when Putin was director of the FSB to carry out operations in the countries of the former Soviet Union with the aim of keeping them within Russia’s orbit.
FSB officers carried out searches at more than 20 addresses around Moscow of colleagues suspected of being in contact with journalists
...The service’s former chief, Sergei Beseda, 68, has been sent to Lefortovo prison in Moscow after he was placed under house arrest last month. The prison was used by the NKVD, the KGB’s predecessor, for interrogation and torture during Stalin’s Great Purge of the 1930s.
Beseda, who remains under investigation, is being held on the official charge of embezzlement. In reality, however, the basis for his arrest is the botched invasion, which has been blamed on poor intelligence concerning the political situation in Ukraine.
...Andrei Soldatov, an expert on the Russian security services, said that in sending Beseda to Lefortovo, Putin had sent a “very strong message” to other elites in Russia...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-purges-150-fsb-agents-in-response-to-ru...
3margd
Brave man needs our thoughts and prayers...
CNN+ @CNNplus | 2:14 PM · Apr 11, 2022·
Putin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was poisoned twice, told Big Picture's Sara Sidner,
"The Putin regime will end over this war."
He was just detained in Moscow, hours after his interview aired.
2:00 ( https://twitter.com/CNNplus/status/1513581345842343948 )
Watch the interview on CNN+: https://cnn.it/3LbgK2q
CNN+ @CNNplus | 2:14 PM · Apr 11, 2022·
Putin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was poisoned twice, told Big Picture's Sara Sidner,
"The Putin regime will end over this war."
He was just detained in Moscow, hours after his interview aired.
2:00 ( https://twitter.com/CNNplus/status/1513581345842343948 )
Watch the interview on CNN+: https://cnn.it/3LbgK2q
4margd
Western Sanctions Force Russia to Officially Default On Foreign Debt
April 11, 2022
Almost immediately after being severely downgraded by Standard and Poor’s, Russia has officially defaulted on its foreign debt because it offered bondholders payments in rubles, not dollars, S&P said Monday.
Russia can’t access the roughly $315 billion of its foreign currency reserves as a result of Western sanctions imposed following its invasion of Ukraine. Until last week, the United States allowed Russia to use some of its frozen assets to pay back certain investors in dollars. But the US Treasury has since blocked the country from accessing its reserves at American banks, part of its effort to ramp up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin and further diminish his war chest.
Russia attempted to pay in rubles for two dollar-denominated bonds that matured on April 4th, S&P said on Friday. The agency said this amounted to a “selective default” because investors are unlikely to be able to convert the rubles into “dollars equivalent to the original amounts due.” A selective default is declared when an entity has defaulted on a specific obligation but not its entire debt...
https://hillreporter.com/western-sanctions-force-russia-to-officially-default-on...
April 11, 2022
Almost immediately after being severely downgraded by Standard and Poor’s, Russia has officially defaulted on its foreign debt because it offered bondholders payments in rubles, not dollars, S&P said Monday.
Russia can’t access the roughly $315 billion of its foreign currency reserves as a result of Western sanctions imposed following its invasion of Ukraine. Until last week, the United States allowed Russia to use some of its frozen assets to pay back certain investors in dollars. But the US Treasury has since blocked the country from accessing its reserves at American banks, part of its effort to ramp up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin and further diminish his war chest.
Russia attempted to pay in rubles for two dollar-denominated bonds that matured on April 4th, S&P said on Friday. The agency said this amounted to a “selective default” because investors are unlikely to be able to convert the rubles into “dollars equivalent to the original amounts due.” A selective default is declared when an entity has defaulted on a specific obligation but not its entire debt...
https://hillreporter.com/western-sanctions-force-russia-to-officially-default-on...
5margd
Finland and Sweden set to join Nato as soon as summer
Bruno Waterfield, Brussels | Charlie Parker. April 11 2022
Russia has made a “massive strategic blunder” as Finland and Sweden look poised to join Nato as early as the summer, according to officials.
...Finland’s application is expected in June, with Sweden expected to follow.
...Sanna Marin, the Finnish prime minister, said it was time for Finland seriously to reconsider its stance on Nato. “Russia is not the neighbour we thought it was,” she said at the weekend, urging the decision to be taken “thoroughly but quickly”.
...Sweden is carrying out a security policy review that will finish by the end of next month, mirroring the Finnish timetable. “I do not exclude Nato membership in any way,” Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish prime minister, said a fortnight ago...
...Nato is making plans to deploy a permanent full-scale military force on members’ borders to prevent a further Russian invasion as it adapts to a “new reality”. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said President Putin’s actions had provoked “a fundamental transformation” of the military coalition, which would reflect the long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/finland-sweden-set-to-join-nato-war-ukraine-l...
Bruno Waterfield, Brussels | Charlie Parker. April 11 2022
Russia has made a “massive strategic blunder” as Finland and Sweden look poised to join Nato as early as the summer, according to officials.
...Finland’s application is expected in June, with Sweden expected to follow.
...Sanna Marin, the Finnish prime minister, said it was time for Finland seriously to reconsider its stance on Nato. “Russia is not the neighbour we thought it was,” she said at the weekend, urging the decision to be taken “thoroughly but quickly”.
...Sweden is carrying out a security policy review that will finish by the end of next month, mirroring the Finnish timetable. “I do not exclude Nato membership in any way,” Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish prime minister, said a fortnight ago...
...Nato is making plans to deploy a permanent full-scale military force on members’ borders to prevent a further Russian invasion as it adapts to a “new reality”. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said President Putin’s actions had provoked “a fundamental transformation” of the military coalition, which would reflect the long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/finland-sweden-set-to-join-nato-war-ukraine-l...
7margd
Anastasiia Lapatina (Kyiv Independent) @lapatina_ | 3:18 PM · Apr 10, 2022:
Borodyanka today. An absolute tragedy
0:10 ( https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1513235089219543050 )
Borodyanka today. An absolute tragedy
0:10 ( https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1513235089219543050 )
8margd
Henri Vanhanen @HenriVanhanen | 3:59 AM · Mar 28, 2022:
Finland 🇫🇮
1) A reserve comprising of approximately 900,000 and wartime strength of 280,000 soldiers.
2) State of the art capabilities.
3) 75% willingness to defend our country in arms.
War with Russia? Finland has a plan for that
For decades, the country has harnessed every level of society to prepare for the possibility of conflict with its neighbour
Richard Milne in Helsinki March 28 2022
https://www.ft.com/content/c5e376f9-7351-40d3-b058-1873b2ef1924
Finland 🇫🇮
1) A reserve comprising of approximately 900,000 and wartime strength of 280,000 soldiers.
2) State of the art capabilities.
3) 75% willingness to defend our country in arms.
War with Russia? Finland has a plan for that
For decades, the country has harnessed every level of society to prepare for the possibility of conflict with its neighbour
Richard Milne in Helsinki March 28 2022
https://www.ft.com/content/c5e376f9-7351-40d3-b058-1873b2ef1924
9margd
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 4:40 PM · Apr 10, 2022:
BREAKING:
Another mass grave has been discovered near Kyiv.
50 civilians shot by Russian troops have been found near a road leading to the village of Buzovaya.
In the village itself, another mass grave with dozens of bodies has been found.
This is the Russian way of warfare.
0:17 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513255564318588929 )
___________________________________________
BREAKING:
Another mass grave has been discovered near Kyiv.
50 civilians shot by Russian troops have been found near a road leading to the village of Buzovaya.
In the village itself, another mass grave with dozens of bodies has been found.
This is the Russian way of warfare.
0:17 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513255564318588929 )
___________________________________________
11margd
>10 2wonderY: Fixed it. Thanks!
________________________________________
toomas hendrik ilves (Estonia) @IlvesToomas | 1:23 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
This is true.
Population of Estonia: 1.3 million,
…now up to €250 million military assistance to Ukraine
Quote Tweet
Yaroslav Trofimov (WSJ) @yarotrof · 1h
So basically tiny Estonia supplied Ukraine with *twice* as much military assistance as France,
the EU’s strongest military power and one calling for European strategic autonomy.
Amaël Kotlarski (Janes) @JakOSpades | 11:59 AM · Apr 12, 2022
More info on French contributions to Ukraine. Total amount is EUR120 million so far. Milans, Javelins and Mistrals sent over (no firm numbers). Other aid included pre-war training and ongoing access to French satellite imagery.
La France a formé des soldats ukrainiens juste avant l’invasion russe
Jean-Dominique Merchet Par Jean-Dominique Merchet | 12 avril 2022
https://www.lopinion.fr/international/la-france-a-forme-des-soldats-ukrainiens-j...
________________________________________
toomas hendrik ilves (Estonia) @IlvesToomas | 1:23 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
This is true.
Population of Estonia: 1.3 million,
…now up to €250 million military assistance to Ukraine
Quote Tweet
Yaroslav Trofimov (WSJ) @yarotrof · 1h
So basically tiny Estonia supplied Ukraine with *twice* as much military assistance as France,
the EU’s strongest military power and one calling for European strategic autonomy.
Amaël Kotlarski (Janes) @JakOSpades | 11:59 AM · Apr 12, 2022
More info on French contributions to Ukraine. Total amount is EUR120 million so far. Milans, Javelins and Mistrals sent over (no firm numbers). Other aid included pre-war training and ongoing access to French satellite imagery.
La France a formé des soldats ukrainiens juste avant l’invasion russe
Jean-Dominique Merchet Par Jean-Dominique Merchet | 12 avril 2022
https://www.lopinion.fr/international/la-france-a-forme-des-soldats-ukrainiens-j...
12margd
Ukraine: Fugitive Putin ally (Viktor) Medvedchuk arrested - security service
4/13/2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61089039
______________________________________
Михайло Подоляк (Zelensky advisor) @Podolyak_M | 2:51 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1513953074972352520
In order to survive Medvedchuk today needs to hide in 🇺🇦 prison. With guaranteed many years of imprisonment. In Russia, he will definitely be eliminated. As a person who regularly lied about the situation in 🇺🇦, stole money and eventually became one of the initiators of the war.
DecodingTrolls @DecodingTrolls 7:18 AM · Apr 13, 2022:
Medvedchuk's pollster told the FSB that Putin had 46% approval rating in Ukraine. 🤦🏽♀️ Imagine Putin's disappointment at discovering that he was betrayed. Last thing Putin wants is another Yanakovich in Russia, reminding him of betrayal by Ukrainian politicians he gave BILLIONS to.
Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (newlinesmag) @michaeldweiss | 4:18 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
Viktor Medvedchuk's ... long been rumored to be one of Putin's "wallets." What secrets he may tell...
_________________________________________
Ukrainian oligarch could be missing link in Trump-Russia probe
Anders Åslund | 05/22/17
...Reuters...names Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch, as one of the Trump campaign’s contacts...
...Medvedchuk, 62, is one of the most controversial characters in Ukrainian business and politics, accused of being involved in all kinds of intrigues and some violent crimes, but as a good lawyer would, he has sued for libel and won in Ukrainian courts. In the early 1990s, Medvedchuk emerged as one of the first oligarchs, making a fortune on trading Russian gas in Ukraine.
...Medvedchuk became one of the key operators in Ukrainian politics. He headed the presidential administration from 2002 to 2005, and though Leonid Kuchma was president at the time, Medvedchuk was perceived to hold an equal amount of power. He was also the leading pro-Kremlin hardliner.
Medvedchuk was accused of censoring the Ukrainian media...main author of the revised Ukrainian constitution in December 2004, which is full of seemingly intentional inconsistencies. He was one of the main enemies of the democratic Orange Revolution, which finished his outward political career.
Since then, Medvedchuk has been President Vladimir Putin’s personal representative in Ukraine...
Medvedchuk was one of the first people to be sanctioned by the U.S. government in March 2014 for his role in the Russian annexation of Crimea.
The U.S. Treasury was uncommonly harsh in its verdict...
Paul Manafort worked as Viktor Yanukovych’s top political advisor for nearly a decade.
...If Robert Mueller, as special counsel for the Trump-Russia probe, can establish contacts between Medvedchuk and the Trump campaign, he has probably found the smoking gun, and he will have made the case for collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign.
https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/the-administration/334139-ukrainian-oliga...
______________________________________________
Hubris and isolation led Vladimir Putin to misjudge Ukraine
Paul Sonne, Ellen Nakashima, Shane Harris and John Hudson
April 11, 2022
...A Ukrainian intelligence official said the FSB had spent millions recruiting a network of pro-Russian collaborators who ultimately told Putin and his top advisers, among them the current FSB director, what they wanted to hear: The central government in Kyiv wouldn’t hold and resistance would collapse.
The official singled out pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk, who made Putin the godfather of his daughter, as a significant source of misleading information. Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian politician who has long promoted Russian interests, was charged with treason last year. Ukrainian authorities initially said he escaped house arrest shortly after the invasion, but Zelensky posted a photo of him captured and in fatigues on Tuesday, crediting Ukrainian intelligence with apprehending him...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/11/putin-misjudged-ukra...
4/13/2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61089039
______________________________________
Михайло Подоляк (Zelensky advisor) @Podolyak_M | 2:51 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1513953074972352520
In order to survive Medvedchuk today needs to hide in 🇺🇦 prison. With guaranteed many years of imprisonment. In Russia, he will definitely be eliminated. As a person who regularly lied about the situation in 🇺🇦, stole money and eventually became one of the initiators of the war.
DecodingTrolls @DecodingTrolls 7:18 AM · Apr 13, 2022:
Medvedchuk's pollster told the FSB that Putin had 46% approval rating in Ukraine. 🤦🏽♀️ Imagine Putin's disappointment at discovering that he was betrayed. Last thing Putin wants is another Yanakovich in Russia, reminding him of betrayal by Ukrainian politicians he gave BILLIONS to.
Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (newlinesmag) @michaeldweiss | 4:18 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
Viktor Medvedchuk's ... long been rumored to be one of Putin's "wallets." What secrets he may tell...
_________________________________________
Ukrainian oligarch could be missing link in Trump-Russia probe
Anders Åslund | 05/22/17
...Reuters...names Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch, as one of the Trump campaign’s contacts...
...Medvedchuk, 62, is one of the most controversial characters in Ukrainian business and politics, accused of being involved in all kinds of intrigues and some violent crimes, but as a good lawyer would, he has sued for libel and won in Ukrainian courts. In the early 1990s, Medvedchuk emerged as one of the first oligarchs, making a fortune on trading Russian gas in Ukraine.
...Medvedchuk became one of the key operators in Ukrainian politics. He headed the presidential administration from 2002 to 2005, and though Leonid Kuchma was president at the time, Medvedchuk was perceived to hold an equal amount of power. He was also the leading pro-Kremlin hardliner.
Medvedchuk was accused of censoring the Ukrainian media...main author of the revised Ukrainian constitution in December 2004, which is full of seemingly intentional inconsistencies. He was one of the main enemies of the democratic Orange Revolution, which finished his outward political career.
Since then, Medvedchuk has been President Vladimir Putin’s personal representative in Ukraine...
Medvedchuk was one of the first people to be sanctioned by the U.S. government in March 2014 for his role in the Russian annexation of Crimea.
The U.S. Treasury was uncommonly harsh in its verdict...
Paul Manafort worked as Viktor Yanukovych’s top political advisor for nearly a decade.
...If Robert Mueller, as special counsel for the Trump-Russia probe, can establish contacts between Medvedchuk and the Trump campaign, he has probably found the smoking gun, and he will have made the case for collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign.
https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/the-administration/334139-ukrainian-oliga...
______________________________________________
Hubris and isolation led Vladimir Putin to misjudge Ukraine
Paul Sonne, Ellen Nakashima, Shane Harris and John Hudson
April 11, 2022
...A Ukrainian intelligence official said the FSB had spent millions recruiting a network of pro-Russian collaborators who ultimately told Putin and his top advisers, among them the current FSB director, what they wanted to hear: The central government in Kyiv wouldn’t hold and resistance would collapse.
The official singled out pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk, who made Putin the godfather of his daughter, as a significant source of misleading information. Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian politician who has long promoted Russian interests, was charged with treason last year. Ukrainian authorities initially said he escaped house arrest shortly after the invasion, but Zelensky posted a photo of him captured and in fatigues on Tuesday, crediting Ukrainian intelligence with apprehending him...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/11/putin-misjudged-ukra...
13margd
Ukraine propaganda--brrr.
Jesus Christ, invading this country was a bad idea.
-Robert Tracinski @Tracinski | 11:18 PM · Apr 12, 2022
Pilot SamolyotОFF 🇺🇦 @pilotmsv | 8:27 AM · Apr 10, 2022:
Орки біснують від цього відео 🇺🇦
Google translation: Orcs rage from this video 🇺🇦
1:46 ( https://twitter.com/pilotmsv/status/1513131559834079234 )
ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki | 11:40 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
Invoking Mara/Morena/Marzanna, the Slavic pagan goddess of death and rebirth... not a deity to be trifled with!
Image ( https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1514086103631994883/photo/1 )
( Mara--https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morana_(goddess) )
ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki | 11:52 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
Worth noting here that the "Russian soldier" here is of a very specific type - he's wearing the striped undershirt (telnyashka) most frequently associated with Russia's parachute forces, the VDV. The propaganda message here is that Ukraine can wipe out even Russia's elite forces.
Image ( https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1514089158687535106/photo/1 )
_____________________________________________
The Far-Right Idealized the Russian Military. Ukraine Exposes All the Ways They’re Wrong.
Stephanie Foggett | April 10, 2022, 10:01 AM
Image/text ( https://twitter.com/lawfareblog/status/1514040419721617409/photo/1 )
...a common talking point among the far right and white supremacists that the United States and other Western militaries are being destroyed by diversity. Milestones in support of gender integration, diversity, and inclusion in the armed forces are met with vitriol and assertions that Western militaries cannot possibly include women, minorities, and LGBTQ+ soldiers without reducing military effectiveness and fighting power.
...Ukraine’s military successes...directly refute the far-right narrative and are worth highlighting: Women make up an estimated 15 percent of Ukraine’s armed forces and contribute heavily to noncombat support roles. Ukrainian LGBTQ+ soldiers are participating in combat operations and fighting for their country and their lives. And, in reforming its military, Ukraine did not look eastward to Russia but instead west toward meeting NATO military standards, which has included embracing NATO’s common values, rules, and processes, as well as promoting civilian control of the armed forces. This outlook has paid dividends for Ukraine, in contrast to Russia’s mounting death toll, low morale, and inability to control criminality and looting. Accusations of Russian war crimes abound, exposing the vacuous, and often gendered, Russian tropes that assert that their military defends the defenseless.
In Ukraine, the world can see on display the weakness of Russia’s antiquated and ineffective concept of power. Security experts should capitalize on the moment to dismiss once and for all the far-right fiction that masculinity wins wars, that security is not inclusive and that Russia represents any semblance of enviable military standards in the 21st century.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/far-right-idealized-russian-military-ukraine-exposes...
Jesus Christ, invading this country was a bad idea.
-Robert Tracinski @Tracinski | 11:18 PM · Apr 12, 2022
Pilot SamolyotОFF 🇺🇦 @pilotmsv | 8:27 AM · Apr 10, 2022:
Орки біснують від цього відео 🇺🇦
Google translation: Orcs rage from this video 🇺🇦
1:46 ( https://twitter.com/pilotmsv/status/1513131559834079234 )
ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki | 11:40 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
Invoking Mara/Morena/Marzanna, the Slavic pagan goddess of death and rebirth... not a deity to be trifled with!
Image ( https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1514086103631994883/photo/1 )
( Mara--https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morana_(goddess) )
ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki | 11:52 PM · Apr 12, 2022:
Worth noting here that the "Russian soldier" here is of a very specific type - he's wearing the striped undershirt (telnyashka) most frequently associated with Russia's parachute forces, the VDV. The propaganda message here is that Ukraine can wipe out even Russia's elite forces.
Image ( https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1514089158687535106/photo/1 )
_____________________________________________
The Far-Right Idealized the Russian Military. Ukraine Exposes All the Ways They’re Wrong.
Stephanie Foggett | April 10, 2022, 10:01 AM
Image/text ( https://twitter.com/lawfareblog/status/1514040419721617409/photo/1 )
...a common talking point among the far right and white supremacists that the United States and other Western militaries are being destroyed by diversity. Milestones in support of gender integration, diversity, and inclusion in the armed forces are met with vitriol and assertions that Western militaries cannot possibly include women, minorities, and LGBTQ+ soldiers without reducing military effectiveness and fighting power.
...Ukraine’s military successes...directly refute the far-right narrative and are worth highlighting: Women make up an estimated 15 percent of Ukraine’s armed forces and contribute heavily to noncombat support roles. Ukrainian LGBTQ+ soldiers are participating in combat operations and fighting for their country and their lives. And, in reforming its military, Ukraine did not look eastward to Russia but instead west toward meeting NATO military standards, which has included embracing NATO’s common values, rules, and processes, as well as promoting civilian control of the armed forces. This outlook has paid dividends for Ukraine, in contrast to Russia’s mounting death toll, low morale, and inability to control criminality and looting. Accusations of Russian war crimes abound, exposing the vacuous, and often gendered, Russian tropes that assert that their military defends the defenseless.
In Ukraine, the world can see on display the weakness of Russia’s antiquated and ineffective concept of power. Security experts should capitalize on the moment to dismiss once and for all the far-right fiction that masculinity wins wars, that security is not inclusive and that Russia represents any semblance of enviable military standards in the 21st century.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/far-right-idealized-russian-military-ukraine-exposes...
14margd
Archbishop of Helsinki to Kirill: For Christ’s sake, wake up and condemn this evil!
Apr 05, 2022 | 10:26
in Dioceses of the Ecumenical Patriarchate, FrontPage
...“The leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church has so far stood by the state leadership to bless this war and even present it as a legitimate, “holy war,” says Archbishop Leo of Helsinki and All Finland.
“Now is the high time for the Church in Russia to realize that it has gone astray.”
”I appeal directly to the Patriarch of Moscow, Kirill: Remember the promises you have made before God as a bishop and patriarch. They must be accounted for before the Almighty.
For Christ’s sake, wake up and condemn this evil. Use your influence to promote peace. Do your best to end this war. I pray that humility and wisdom from God will guide you.”...
https://orthodoxtimes.com/archbishop-of-helsinki-to-kirill-for-christs-sake-wake...
____________________________________________________
Why African Leaders Won’t Back the West on Ukraine
Committed nonalignment, fear of upsetting China, and reliance on Russia for arms and security led many countries to ignore Washington’s demands.
Nosmot Gbadamosi | April 13, 2022
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/13/africa-ukraine-west-russia-war-nonalignment...
Security, Soft Power and Regime Support: Spheres of Russian Influence in Africa
Multiple Authors | 23rd March 2022
https://institute.global/policy/security-soft-power-and-regime-support-spheres-r...
Russia’s new world order is bad news for Africa
Rather than following the lead of despots like Putin and Xi, Africa should chart its own path.
Tafi Mhaka | 10 Apr 2022
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/4/10/russias-new-world-order-is-bad-news...
Apr 05, 2022 | 10:26
in Dioceses of the Ecumenical Patriarchate, FrontPage
...“The leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church has so far stood by the state leadership to bless this war and even present it as a legitimate, “holy war,” says Archbishop Leo of Helsinki and All Finland.
“Now is the high time for the Church in Russia to realize that it has gone astray.”
”I appeal directly to the Patriarch of Moscow, Kirill: Remember the promises you have made before God as a bishop and patriarch. They must be accounted for before the Almighty.
For Christ’s sake, wake up and condemn this evil. Use your influence to promote peace. Do your best to end this war. I pray that humility and wisdom from God will guide you.”...
https://orthodoxtimes.com/archbishop-of-helsinki-to-kirill-for-christs-sake-wake...
____________________________________________________
Why African Leaders Won’t Back the West on Ukraine
Committed nonalignment, fear of upsetting China, and reliance on Russia for arms and security led many countries to ignore Washington’s demands.
Nosmot Gbadamosi | April 13, 2022
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/13/africa-ukraine-west-russia-war-nonalignment...
Security, Soft Power and Regime Support: Spheres of Russian Influence in Africa
Multiple Authors | 23rd March 2022
https://institute.global/policy/security-soft-power-and-regime-support-spheres-r...
Russia’s new world order is bad news for Africa
Rather than following the lead of despots like Putin and Xi, Africa should chart its own path.
Tafi Mhaka | 10 Apr 2022
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/4/10/russias-new-world-order-is-bad-news...
15margd
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 6:09 AM · Apr 12, 2022:
Somebody has sabotaged the railway tracks near Belgorod, a Russian border town close to the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
It will put a stop to Russian troop redeployments from Kyiv to the Donbas for a while.
Looks like Ukraine has sabotage teams working within Russia itself.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513821648394334209 )
Somebody has sabotaged the railway tracks near Belgorod, a Russian border town close to the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
It will put a stop to Russian troop redeployments from Kyiv to the Donbas for a while.
Looks like Ukraine has sabotage teams working within Russia itself.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513821648394334209 )
162wonderY
>15 margd: Or maybe Russian war protesters.
17davidgn
Finally had a chance to watch this entire panel referenced in https://www.librarything.com/topic/340620#7810923 .
Absolutely worth the time to watch/listen in full. We've gotten ourselves into a nearly insoluble pickle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hH3s7MRJkAI
Absolutely worth the time to watch/listen in full. We've gotten ourselves into a nearly insoluble pickle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hH3s7MRJkAI
18margd
>16 2wonderY: An especially creative Russian war protester:
Absolutely insane. St. Petersburg artist Alexandra Skochilenko is placed in remand prison pending felony prosecution for spreading “false information” about Russia’s military by swapping in war facts on price tags at a local grocery store. A customer reported her to the police.
Image ( https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514217040562774021/photo/3 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514217040562774021/photo/2 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514217040562774021/photo/1 )
- Kevin Rothrock (medusa) @KevinRothrock | 8:20 AM · Apr 13, 2022
_____________________________________________
>3 margd: contd. Kara-Murza's 15-day prison sentence is a surprise and a relief, though I suspect that someone who survived two poisonings and returned to Moscow will continue to buy himself much more unpleasant attention. Wonder how he and Navalny survive, given the many Russian who have been shot, poisoned, "fallen" out of windows, etc.
...activist, Vladimir Kara-Murza, has since been sentenced to 15 days in jail on the charge of disobeying a police order.
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/12/1092330352/vladimir-kara-murza-detained-moscow
Absolutely insane. St. Petersburg artist Alexandra Skochilenko is placed in remand prison pending felony prosecution for spreading “false information” about Russia’s military by swapping in war facts on price tags at a local grocery store. A customer reported her to the police.
Image ( https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514217040562774021/photo/3 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514217040562774021/photo/2 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514217040562774021/photo/1 )
- Kevin Rothrock (medusa) @KevinRothrock | 8:20 AM · Apr 13, 2022
_____________________________________________
>3 margd: contd. Kara-Murza's 15-day prison sentence is a surprise and a relief, though I suspect that someone who survived two poisonings and returned to Moscow will continue to buy himself much more unpleasant attention. Wonder how he and Navalny survive, given the many Russian who have been shot, poisoned, "fallen" out of windows, etc.
...activist, Vladimir Kara-Murza, has since been sentenced to 15 days in jail on the charge of disobeying a police order.
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/12/1092330352/vladimir-kara-murza-detained-moscow
19margd
>17 davidgn: Ukraine offered neutrality. Russia offered more war.
Answers. We need answers, not history.
Answers. We need answers, not history.
20davidgn
>19 margd: You're entirely correct, insofar as the peace talks are quite opaque, and I expect a number of spanners are being inserted by elements of both sides.
21margd
>17 davidgn: Behind a paywall--darn. Mearsheimer v Roberts, by invitation:
John Mearsheimer on why the West is principally responsible for the Ukrainian crisis
The political scientist believes the reckless expansion of NATO provoked Russia
Mar 19th 2022
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/11/john-mearsheimer-on-why-the-w...
Sir Adam Roberts rebuffs the view that the West is principally responsible for the crisis in Ukraine
The scholar argues that the expansion of NATO was just one factor among several that led to conflict
Mar 26th 2022
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/26/sir-adam-roberts-rebuffs-the-...
John Mearsheimer on why the West is principally responsible for the Ukrainian crisis
The political scientist believes the reckless expansion of NATO provoked Russia
Mar 19th 2022
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/11/john-mearsheimer-on-why-the-w...
Sir Adam Roberts rebuffs the view that the West is principally responsible for the crisis in Ukraine
The scholar argues that the expansion of NATO was just one factor among several that led to conflict
Mar 26th 2022
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/26/sir-adam-roberts-rebuffs-the-...
22margd
>5 margd: contd.
Government report on changes in the security environment
P U B L I C AT I O N S O F T H E F I N N I S H G O V E R N M E N T 2022:20
(53 p, largely in English)
...2.1.1 Russia actions and their consequences
...2.2.4 Closer cooperation with the U.S...
https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/164002/VN_2022_20.pdf
Government report on changes in the security environment
P U B L I C AT I O N S O F T H E F I N N I S H G O V E R N M E N T 2022:20
(53 p, largely in English)
...2.1.1 Russia actions and their consequences
...2.2.4 Closer cooperation with the U.S...
https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/164002/VN_2022_20.pdf
23margd
Twitter tonight:
1. Russian flagship damaged by explosion. ETA: rolled over and sank?Ukrainians distracted ship (Moskva) w Turkish drone, then hit it with two Neptune missiles? 500 sailors on board? Abandoned ship?
2. Maryupol defenders ran out of ammunition. Wanted their countrymen to know they didn't run..
1. Russian flagship damaged by explosion. ETA: rolled over and sank?Ukrainians distracted ship (Moskva) w Turkish drone, then hit it with two Neptune missiles? 500 sailors on board? Abandoned ship?
2. Maryupol defenders ran out of ammunition. Wanted their countrymen to know they didn't run..
24John5918
Nato must help wind down this war – and stop stringing Ukraine along (Guardian)
Ukraine attention shows bias against black lives, WHO chief says (BBC)
Nato was never serious about admitting Ukraine. The Russian invasion has lowered Ukraine’s chances even further...
Ukraine attention shows bias against black lives, WHO chief says (BBC)
The head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) says the world does not give equal attention to emergencies affecting black and white people. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said only a fraction of the help given to Ukraine was given to other humanitarian crises. Assisting Ukraine is "very important" because it "impacts the whole world", he said. But Tigray province in Ethiopia, Yemen, Afghanistan or Syria are not receiving the same attention, he said. "I don't know if the world really gives equal attention to black and white lives," Mr Tedros told a news conference. "I need to be blunt and honest that the world is not treating the human race the same way. Some are more equal than others. And when I say this, it pains me. Because I see it. Very difficult to accept but it's happening," he added...
25davidgn
>19 margd: If we aren't willing to consider how we got here and the worldviews of the players, we don't stand a very good chance of finding answers.
26John5918
>25 davidgn: Well said.
27margd
>25 davidgn: I prefer analysis that leads to answers. UN FAO just published on how to minimize impacts on world food supply of Putin's war.
ETA:
Information Note
The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural
markets and the risks associated with the current conflict (47 p)
UN FAO | 25 March 2022 Update
Executive Summary
...3. Policy recommendations
• In order to prevent or limit the conflict’s detrimental impacts on the food and agricultural sectors of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, every effort should be made to keep international trade in food and fertilizers open to meet domestic and global demand. Supply chains should be kept fully operational, including by protecting standing crops, livestock, food processing infrastructure, and all logistical systems.
• In order to absorb conflict-induced shocks and remain resilient, countries that depend on food imports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation will need to find alternative export suppliers for their food needs. They should also rely on existing food stocks and enhance the diversity of their domestic production bases.
• The food security impacts of the conflict on vulnerable groups necessitate timely monitoring and well-targeted social protection interventions to alleviate the hardship caused by the conflict and to foster a fast recovery from it. To assist the internally displaced people, refugees and groups directly affected by the conflict, the reach of Ukraine’s national social protection system should be expanded by registering additional population groups within the Unified Social Information System.
• In countries hosting refugees, access to existing social protection systems and job opportunities should also be eased by lifting legal access barriers and, where needed, by increasing the capacity of host countries’ social protection systems to absorb additional caseloads.
• Countries affected by potential disruptions ensuing from the conflict must carefully weigh measures they put in place against their potentially detrimental effect on international markets including over the longer term.
Particularly, export restrictions must be avoided. They exacerbate price volatility, limit the buffer capacity of the global market, and have negative impacts over the medium term.
• The spread of African swine fever (ASF) and other animal diseases must be contained by improving biosecurity and good husbandry practices at all geographical levels, by taking steps to facilitate early detection, timely reporting and rapid disease containment, and by implementing measures that support virus detection, such as surveillance schemes and targeted sampling of animals.
• Market transparency and policy dialogue should be strengthened, as they play key roles when agricultural commodity markets are under uncertainty and disruptions need to be minimised to ensure that international markets continue to function properly and that trade in food and agricultural products flows smoothly.
...wheat inventories are already especially tight in Canada and the United States of America following reduced harvests in 2021/22. Among other suppliers, Argentina’s exports during the ongoing season will also likely remain limited by Government efforts to control domestic inflation, while Australia has reached its maximum shipment capacity logistically...significantly reduced global export availabilities...
...The resulting supply gaps for importers may be especially important for buyers in the Near East and North Africa and, given the importance of wheat as a food staple, they could result in some countries increasing imports now in order to secure supplies in fear that wheat markets will become tighter and that prices will rise further. This would put additional pressure on global markets. Of the top global wheat importers, Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh and the Islamic Republic of Iran source, on average (2016/17 – 2020/21), 60 percent or more of their wheat imports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation...
...Maize supply gaps for importers could be especially relevant for China and the European Union (Ukraine’s primary maize export destinations so far this season), but also for Egypt and Turkey
... it is unlikely that higher sales from Argentina and the United States of America will fully compensate for a severe shortfall in Ukrainian maize exports during the ongoing season, due to domestic supply constraints faced in these alternate origins or, as is the case of Argentina, due to Government efforts to contain domestic inflation.
...Given the significant export shares of Ukraine and the Russian Federation in the global sunflowerseed oil market, any disruption to their shipments would have notable implications for major sunflower oil importers, namely India, the European Union, China, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey.
...As for rapeseed and derived products, although Ukraine stands out as the world’s third largest rapeseed exporter (canola oil),
its share in global rapeseed trade is more limited, suggesting that there could be greater room for alternate suppliers, such as Canada and Australia, to compensate for potential reductions in Ukrainian rapeseed exports....
ETA:
Information Note
The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural
markets and the risks associated with the current conflict (47 p)
UN FAO | 25 March 2022 Update
Executive Summary
...3. Policy recommendations
• In order to prevent or limit the conflict’s detrimental impacts on the food and agricultural sectors of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, every effort should be made to keep international trade in food and fertilizers open to meet domestic and global demand. Supply chains should be kept fully operational, including by protecting standing crops, livestock, food processing infrastructure, and all logistical systems.
• In order to absorb conflict-induced shocks and remain resilient, countries that depend on food imports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation will need to find alternative export suppliers for their food needs. They should also rely on existing food stocks and enhance the diversity of their domestic production bases.
• The food security impacts of the conflict on vulnerable groups necessitate timely monitoring and well-targeted social protection interventions to alleviate the hardship caused by the conflict and to foster a fast recovery from it. To assist the internally displaced people, refugees and groups directly affected by the conflict, the reach of Ukraine’s national social protection system should be expanded by registering additional population groups within the Unified Social Information System.
• In countries hosting refugees, access to existing social protection systems and job opportunities should also be eased by lifting legal access barriers and, where needed, by increasing the capacity of host countries’ social protection systems to absorb additional caseloads.
• Countries affected by potential disruptions ensuing from the conflict must carefully weigh measures they put in place against their potentially detrimental effect on international markets including over the longer term.
Particularly, export restrictions must be avoided. They exacerbate price volatility, limit the buffer capacity of the global market, and have negative impacts over the medium term.
• The spread of African swine fever (ASF) and other animal diseases must be contained by improving biosecurity and good husbandry practices at all geographical levels, by taking steps to facilitate early detection, timely reporting and rapid disease containment, and by implementing measures that support virus detection, such as surveillance schemes and targeted sampling of animals.
• Market transparency and policy dialogue should be strengthened, as they play key roles when agricultural commodity markets are under uncertainty and disruptions need to be minimised to ensure that international markets continue to function properly and that trade in food and agricultural products flows smoothly.
...wheat inventories are already especially tight in Canada and the United States of America following reduced harvests in 2021/22. Among other suppliers, Argentina’s exports during the ongoing season will also likely remain limited by Government efforts to control domestic inflation, while Australia has reached its maximum shipment capacity logistically...significantly reduced global export availabilities...
...The resulting supply gaps for importers may be especially important for buyers in the Near East and North Africa and, given the importance of wheat as a food staple, they could result in some countries increasing imports now in order to secure supplies in fear that wheat markets will become tighter and that prices will rise further. This would put additional pressure on global markets. Of the top global wheat importers, Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh and the Islamic Republic of Iran source, on average (2016/17 – 2020/21), 60 percent or more of their wheat imports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation...
...Maize supply gaps for importers could be especially relevant for China and the European Union (Ukraine’s primary maize export destinations so far this season), but also for Egypt and Turkey
... it is unlikely that higher sales from Argentina and the United States of America will fully compensate for a severe shortfall in Ukrainian maize exports during the ongoing season, due to domestic supply constraints faced in these alternate origins or, as is the case of Argentina, due to Government efforts to contain domestic inflation.
...Given the significant export shares of Ukraine and the Russian Federation in the global sunflowerseed oil market, any disruption to their shipments would have notable implications for major sunflower oil importers, namely India, the European Union, China, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey.
...As for rapeseed and derived products, although Ukraine stands out as the world’s third largest rapeseed exporter (canola oil),
its share in global rapeseed trade is more limited, suggesting that there could be greater room for alternate suppliers, such as Canada and Australia, to compensate for potential reductions in Ukrainian rapeseed exports....
28davidgn
>19 margd: Ukraine offered neutrality. Russia offered more war.
I'm pretty sure this is the WaPo article Mearsheimer had in mind (though it came out on a Tuesday, not a Monday) insinuating that Ukraine may not be allowed to make the sort of deal it may want to make, and implicitly pinning the blame on Eastern European NATO members. cf. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oR-yS6kULXw&t=722s (from a repost of just Mearsheimer's segment divided into chapters).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/05/ukraine-nato-russia-...
And we don't know what was offered or what was objected to -- just that as of two days later, on the 7th, the Russians claimed to be taken aback at what was actually put on the table.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_peace_negotiations#Apr...
We just know what Zelenskyy -- master of PR -- announced, without any detail.
I'm pretty sure this is the WaPo article Mearsheimer had in mind (though it came out on a Tuesday, not a Monday) insinuating that Ukraine may not be allowed to make the sort of deal it may want to make, and implicitly pinning the blame on Eastern European NATO members. cf. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oR-yS6kULXw&t=722s (from a repost of just Mearsheimer's segment divided into chapters).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/05/ukraine-nato-russia-...
And we don't know what was offered or what was objected to -- just that as of two days later, on the 7th, the Russians claimed to be taken aback at what was actually put on the table.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_peace_negotiations#Apr...
We just know what Zelenskyy -- master of PR -- announced, without any detail.
29margd
NATO can't make Ukrainians fight if they don't want to. If NATO argued for a longer fight, that would explain Zelensky rhetoric about fighting for democracy, so give us heavier weaponry. I can't imagine it's in any NATO member's interest for war to go on--too many opportunities for mistakes. Problem for Ukrainians, though, is that if Rs take e and s, they will undermine and in time take what's left of the rest of the country. The poor, smashed country... I don't know that Zelensky really has a choice at this point but to press on. Risk can't get any worse for his country...
30davidgn
>29 margd: I can't imagine it's in any NATO member's interest for war to go on
On the contrary. I've heard it argued that a resolution on poor terms or a frozen conflict simply gives the Russians the opportunity to try and rearm for another go. And I'll quote from behind the paywalled section of that WaPo piece, with a bolded segment.
On the contrary. I've heard it argued that a resolution on poor terms or a frozen conflict simply gives the Russians the opportunity to try and rearm for another go. And I'll quote from behind the paywalled section of that WaPo piece, with a bolded segment.
If Ukraine and Russia agree to a peace settlement, Washington and the European Union will face a separate question about whether to offer sanctions relief to the Kremlin. The answer is not an automatic yes, some policymakers said.
“It’s a little tricky for the U.S. and other allies. … They don’t want something to come out of the negotiation that isn’t implementable,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former NATO deputy secretary general. “If the Ukrainians accepted a deal that does involve territorial concessions, it may be good enough for Ukraine in some circumstances, depending on what else they get, but it could set a bad precedent in terms of further legitimizing changing borders by force and by brutal, rapacious conquest, as the Russians are doing in many parts of Ukraine.”
NATO members themselves do not appear united on how much of a direct threat Russia poses to the alliance, with officials in Paris, Berlin and elsewhere more inclined than their allies in Eastern Europe to feel that Putin’s aims stop at the NATO border. French President Emmanuel Macron — who this month is facing a surging far-right election opponent, Marine Le Pen — has spoken to Putin at least 16 times since the start of the year to try to preempt or end the conflict, French officials said. Le Pen has espoused pro-Russian views in the past.
For countries that are closer to the war, there is a belief that they have more at stake. “This is a major issue for us,” said a senior diplomat from a country that borders Ukraine. “A divided, fragmented, frozen conflict in Ukraine is a very bad deal for us. An active Ukraine-NATO relationship is crucial for the Black Sea region. If that is broken, we will have a problem of unchecked Russians and the need for even stronger presence by NATO allies.”
For now, the math that would favor a negotiated settlement does not appear to add up, analysts and policymakers said, despite some positive noise after discussions last week between Ukraine and Russia. With Russia pulling back from Kyiv and other cities, Ukrainians feel that the momentum is on their side. And the accounts of atrocities under Russian rule in Bucha, Lotskyne and elsewhere make it harder for Kyiv to concede an inch of territory, since there are now fears for the fate of Ukrainian citizens under any Russian rule.
“Who are we to tell Ukrainians what to do? How can we imagine a situation whereby given all of the destruction, all of the massacres, we just say, ‘Okay, that’s fine,’ ” said Nathalie Tocci, head of the Italian Institute of International Affairs and an adviser to E.U. policymakers in Brussels.
The Kremlin, too, may be unable to back down, since its citizens have been fed a steady stream of lies and propaganda about what is happening on the ground, and they have been told they are winning.
“I don’t see any indication that we’re anywhere close to a negotiated solution on this,” said Andrew Weiss, a former top White House adviser on Russia who is now vice president of studies at the Carnegie Endowment. “The Russians are prepared to continue doing horrible things in Ukraine with the goal of getting the Ukrainians to surrender and the West to back off, and the Ukrainians are prepared to fight. I don’t see the conditions for a settlement in place.”
31margd
The retired commander of US Army Europe tweeted a 19-post thread analyzing factors shaping Phase 2 of Putin's war, e.g., leadership, terrain, resources, objectives, tactics, towns-whose-names-we-may-soon-learn... I'll post link later, but in mean time interested readers can search Twitter for Mark Hertling @MarkHertling 12:42 PM. April 14, 2022.
32davidgn
If you want to know what keeps the Kremlin up at night, try this.
Sergej Sumlenny: "Get ready for the break up of Russia"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqYZqNpLQb8
There is a school of thought that believes the dismemberment and disintegration of Russia is what the US and NATO have been plotting to achieve all along (not without reason -- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32487081 // https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/08/usa.russia ), and nothing that's happening now will be allaying those fears.
All the more reason Russia cannot afford to "lose" here.
Meanwhile--
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60551140
Not exactly a comfortable juxtaposition.
Sergej Sumlenny: "Get ready for the break up of Russia"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqYZqNpLQb8
There is a school of thought that believes the dismemberment and disintegration of Russia is what the US and NATO have been plotting to achieve all along (not without reason -- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32487081 // https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/08/usa.russia ), and nothing that's happening now will be allaying those fears.
All the more reason Russia cannot afford to "lose" here.
Meanwhile--
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60551140
"Putin's words sound like a direct threat of nuclear war," believes Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov, chief editor of the Novaya Gazeta newspaper.
"In that TV address, Putin wasn't acting like the master of the Kremlin, but the master of the planet; in the same way the owner of a flash car shows off by twirling his keyring round his finger, Putin was twirling the nuclear button. He's said many times: if there is no Russia, why do we need the planet? No one paid any attention. But this is a threat that if Russia isn't treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed."
Not exactly a comfortable juxtaposition.
33margd
Analysis: Chain of Negligence caused the loss of the Moskva cruiser
Tayfun Ozberk (US Defense Analyst) | 17 Apr 2022
The shock of the sinking of the Slava-class cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, continues. In the absence of a satisfactory evidence-based explanation for the event, there has been much speculation. Although the actual cause of the ship's sinking is not known with 100 percent certainty, it is clear that the flagship sank as a result of a chain of negligence, half of the crew died, and Russia's pride was broken...
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/analysis-chain-of-negligence-caused...
Tayfun Ozberk (US Defense Analyst) | 17 Apr 2022
The shock of the sinking of the Slava-class cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, continues. In the absence of a satisfactory evidence-based explanation for the event, there has been much speculation. Although the actual cause of the ship's sinking is not known with 100 percent certainty, it is clear that the flagship sank as a result of a chain of negligence, half of the crew died, and Russia's pride was broken...
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/analysis-chain-of-negligence-caused...
34margd
Opinion: Putin’s Plan A in Ukraine has failed. We can’t let his Plan B succeed.
Fareed Zakaria | April 14, 2022
Ukraine’s brave and brilliant response to Russia’s attack is rightly being celebrated across the world. But it might be obscuring a growing danger. While the assault on Kyiv and the surrounding region has failed, Moscow’s strategy in the south and east of Ukraine could well succeed. If it does, Russia will have turned Ukraine into an economically crippled rump state, landlocked and threatened on three sides by Russian military power, always vulnerable to another incursion from Moscow. It will take much more military assistance from the West to ensure that this catastrophic outcome does not come to pass.
...Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, who has been farsighted in diagnosing Russia’s weaknesses and Ukraine’s strengths, explained to me that Ukraine needs more equipment that allows it to maneuver quickly around Russia’s rigid forces. That means helicopters, armed Humvees, multiple-launch rocket systems and drones of every kind. Turkish drones have proved to be an amazingly effective weapon in this conflict. Hertling urges that Ukraine be given more of those, as well as American “kamikaze” drones and intelligence drones.
...NATO should consider doing something similar to what it did during the Balkan wars in the 1990s. It should enforce an embargo around those waters, preventing Russian troops from entering to attack Ukraine’s cities or resupply Russian forces. NATO ships would operate from international waters, issuing any approaching ships a “notice to mariners” that NATO forces are active in the area and warning them not to enter...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/14/west-cant-let-russia-win-in-u...
Fareed Zakaria | April 14, 2022
Ukraine’s brave and brilliant response to Russia’s attack is rightly being celebrated across the world. But it might be obscuring a growing danger. While the assault on Kyiv and the surrounding region has failed, Moscow’s strategy in the south and east of Ukraine could well succeed. If it does, Russia will have turned Ukraine into an economically crippled rump state, landlocked and threatened on three sides by Russian military power, always vulnerable to another incursion from Moscow. It will take much more military assistance from the West to ensure that this catastrophic outcome does not come to pass.
...Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, who has been farsighted in diagnosing Russia’s weaknesses and Ukraine’s strengths, explained to me that Ukraine needs more equipment that allows it to maneuver quickly around Russia’s rigid forces. That means helicopters, armed Humvees, multiple-launch rocket systems and drones of every kind. Turkish drones have proved to be an amazingly effective weapon in this conflict. Hertling urges that Ukraine be given more of those, as well as American “kamikaze” drones and intelligence drones.
...NATO should consider doing something similar to what it did during the Balkan wars in the 1990s. It should enforce an embargo around those waters, preventing Russian troops from entering to attack Ukraine’s cities or resupply Russian forces. NATO ships would operate from international waters, issuing any approaching ships a “notice to mariners” that NATO forces are active in the area and warning them not to enter...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/14/west-cant-let-russia-win-in-u...
35margd
Terrorists and war criminals strike twice...
Alexander Khrebet/Олександр Хребет* @AlexKhrebet | 9:23 AM · Apr 17, 2022:
As rescuers were treating wounded civilians after the shelling in Kharkiv, #Russia struck again. Note the brave medic who stayed with the wounded woman. He shouted to the other wounded, “Don't get up!”
0:26 ( https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1515682281381412864 )
* @ZN_ UA
Review of the most important and topical political, economic and socio-cultural events in Ukraine and abroad.
Alexander Khrebet/Олександр Хребет* @AlexKhrebet | 9:23 AM · Apr 17, 2022:
As rescuers were treating wounded civilians after the shelling in Kharkiv, #Russia struck again. Note the brave medic who stayed with the wounded woman. He shouted to the other wounded, “Don't get up!”
0:26 ( https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1515682281381412864 )
* @ZN_ UA
Review of the most important and topical political, economic and socio-cultural events in Ukraine and abroad.
36margd
Leonid Ragozin @leonidragozin | 4:40 AM · Apr 17, 2022:
Pussy Riot’s Maria Alyokhina says a young man set a couch on fire in antiwar protest in Krasnodar, Russia. She says he wrote Zlo (Evil) on it in Latin letters. The man reportedly has a girlfriend in Mariupol who stopped answering calls after the start of the siege.
Quote Tweet
Мария Алехина (Pussy Riot) @all_mary · Apr 16
(Google translation For an unusual anti-war action in Krasnodar, 23-year-old Alexander Surukhanov was detained. He pulled the couch outside and set it on fire, writing ZLO in large letters next to it.
He said that he did this because of his girlfriend, who lives in Mariupol: after the war, she stopped communicating.
0:15 ( https://twitter.com/all_mary/status/1515397094458155013 )
Pussy Riot’s Maria Alyokhina says a young man set a couch on fire in antiwar protest in Krasnodar, Russia. She says he wrote Zlo (Evil) on it in Latin letters. The man reportedly has a girlfriend in Mariupol who stopped answering calls after the start of the siege.
Quote Tweet
Мария Алехина (Pussy Riot) @all_mary · Apr 16
(Google translation For an unusual anti-war action in Krasnodar, 23-year-old Alexander Surukhanov was detained. He pulled the couch outside and set it on fire, writing ZLO in large letters next to it.
He said that he did this because of his girlfriend, who lives in Mariupol: after the war, she stopped communicating.
0:15 ( https://twitter.com/all_mary/status/1515397094458155013 )
37margd
Russia's Uralvogonzavod shuts down production. It will no longer be able to assemble any of T-72 tank (main RU tank) or newer T-90 & T-14 tanks (Armata). Reason: lack of imported components. It means more saved UA lives, is direct result of Western sanctions which should continue
- Margo Gontar (Ukrainian journalist) @MargoGontar | 2:55 PM · Apr 16, 2022
- Margo Gontar (Ukrainian journalist) @MargoGontar | 2:55 PM · Apr 16, 2022
38lriley
>33 margd: what remains of the crew knows what happened to their ship. That story will get around to the rest of the Russian navy of draftees or enlisted as the survivors will disperse throughout the system they have. Won’t be a great morale booster.
39lriley
>37 margd: All things being equal wars are won on logistics. Of the equals I think we tend to think when a country invades another their soldiers and sailors are prepared and coherent battle plans have been worked out. The Russians still have overwhelming logistical advantages but the sanctions will certainly take a bite out of those advantages. The other factors with their military preparedness and strategies for winning have been beyond awful and it’s these failures so far that have really dragged them down. Atrocities to civilian populations are usually the result of an Army that has lost its way and is at its wits end. Occupations are a bad idea anyway. They don’t work. People might not like their own governing bodies but they definitely do not like foreign governing bodies at the point of a gun.
40margd
>38 lriley: You might be interested in thread plus discussion analyzing sinking of Moskva. Seas look quiet to me. If carrying tactical nukes and/or chemical weapons in addition to conventional weaponry, might be reason ship was abandoned "quickly"? Where is Moskva's captain today? I read surviving sailors were to be reassigned, so story will come out, as you say.
John Konrad V @johnkonrad | 7:40 PM · Apr 17, 2022
CEO @gCaptain, Ship Captain, author of Fire On The Horizon, cofounder @unofficialnet...
https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1515845276187168779
This is the Russian Flagship #Moskva before she sank. It's impossible to fully assess the situation aboard based on one picture but marine salvage masters must make assumptions based on little information. As a ship captain and ship fire author here's what appears to be likely...
Photo ( https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1515837566356008961/photo/1 )
John Konrad V @johnkonrad | 7:40 PM · Apr 17, 2022
CEO @gCaptain, Ship Captain, author of Fire On The Horizon, cofounder @unofficialnet...
https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1515845276187168779
This is the Russian Flagship #Moskva before she sank. It's impossible to fully assess the situation aboard based on one picture but marine salvage masters must make assumptions based on little information. As a ship captain and ship fire author here's what appears to be likely...
Photo ( https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1515837566356008961/photo/1 )
41margd
Putin’s dictatorship is now based on fear rather than spin
The origins of the war in Ukraine lie in Russian economic stagnation, corruption and the president’s dwindling popularity
Sergei Guriev* | 17 April 2022
...The political scientist Adam Przeworski once wrote that authoritarian equilibrium rests on economic prosperity, lies or fear. Like most 21st-century “spin dictators”, Putin originally eschewed fear. In his first decade in office, he presided over a period of fast economic growth, driven by rising oil prices and economic reforms in the 1990s and early 2000s. This prosperity brought him genuine popularity.
However, as Putin’s centralisation of power promoted corruption and stifled competition, his economic model lost steam. ... Putin’s approval rating fell from a peak of 88 per cent in September 2008 to the low 60s in late 2013.
Putin decided to address an economic problem with a non-economic solution. Annexing Crimea in 2014 did boost his popularity, probably beyond his expectations. Levada Center polls showed that Putin’s approval went back to 88 per cent in just a few months.
However, the Crimea effect faded away. As Putin’s governance model is incompatible with economic growth, Russia’s economy continued to stagnate. ... In 2019, Russian GDP was 6 per cent above its pre-Crimea level, but real incomes of Russian households were 7 per cent below their 2013 peak.
Putin then turned to Przeworski’s second pillar of authoritarianism: lies...
...Running out of options, Putin returned to his 2014 recipe — hoping that a short victorious war would once again raise his popularity despite the lack of economic success. This time, however, he gravely miscalculated.
...The consequences of Putin’s aggression are catastrophic for Russia’s economy and deadly for Russian politics. Before the war, he was a spin dictator, pretending to be a democrat and relying on money and manipulation of information. Once he saw that 2022 is not 2014, he moved to Przeworski’s third pillar: fear...
https://www.ft.com/content/e58832c5-a35a-4bf4-8be7-359b4563c1c9
* Sergei Guriev @sguriev
Professor of Economics, Sciences Po, Paris. Former Chief Economist, EBRD. Former Rector of the New Economic School, Moscow. Author of Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st century
The origins of the war in Ukraine lie in Russian economic stagnation, corruption and the president’s dwindling popularity
Sergei Guriev* | 17 April 2022
...The political scientist Adam Przeworski once wrote that authoritarian equilibrium rests on economic prosperity, lies or fear. Like most 21st-century “spin dictators”, Putin originally eschewed fear. In his first decade in office, he presided over a period of fast economic growth, driven by rising oil prices and economic reforms in the 1990s and early 2000s. This prosperity brought him genuine popularity.
However, as Putin’s centralisation of power promoted corruption and stifled competition, his economic model lost steam. ... Putin’s approval rating fell from a peak of 88 per cent in September 2008 to the low 60s in late 2013.
Putin decided to address an economic problem with a non-economic solution. Annexing Crimea in 2014 did boost his popularity, probably beyond his expectations. Levada Center polls showed that Putin’s approval went back to 88 per cent in just a few months.
However, the Crimea effect faded away. As Putin’s governance model is incompatible with economic growth, Russia’s economy continued to stagnate. ... In 2019, Russian GDP was 6 per cent above its pre-Crimea level, but real incomes of Russian households were 7 per cent below their 2013 peak.
Putin then turned to Przeworski’s second pillar of authoritarianism: lies...
...Running out of options, Putin returned to his 2014 recipe — hoping that a short victorious war would once again raise his popularity despite the lack of economic success. This time, however, he gravely miscalculated.
...The consequences of Putin’s aggression are catastrophic for Russia’s economy and deadly for Russian politics. Before the war, he was a spin dictator, pretending to be a democrat and relying on money and manipulation of information. Once he saw that 2022 is not 2014, he moved to Przeworski’s third pillar: fear...
https://www.ft.com/content/e58832c5-a35a-4bf4-8be7-359b4563c1c9
* Sergei Guriev @sguriev
Professor of Economics, Sciences Po, Paris. Former Chief Economist, EBRD. Former Rector of the New Economic School, Moscow. Author of Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st century
42margd
Russia asks defenders of Mariupol to surrender, saying that they'll be treated per Geneva Convention--as if Russia has been truthful in Ukraine war. Putin wants some small trophy by May 9. Will RU use tactical nukes or chemical weapons against the last few survivors of its vicious depravity in order to meet his deadline?
Christopher Miller* @ChristopherJM | 11:40 AM · Apr 18, 2022:
Volyna, Ukraine marine commander in Mariupol, also published a plea for help to Pontifex (Pope Francis), via ukrpravda_news . "You've probably seen a lot in your life. But I'm sure you're never seen what is happening in Mariupol. This is what hell on earth looks like."
Командир морпіхів звернувся до Папи Римського – просить врятувати людей з Маріуполя
"Українська правда" — Понеділок, 18 квітня 2022, 13:14
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/18/7340412/
____________________________________________
...Volnya, who describes himself as Orthodox, says he believes in God and "I know that light always overcomes darkness."
"I have not seen your appeals to the world and I have not read all your recent statements; I have been fighting for more than 50 days, completely surrounded, and all I have time for is a fierce battle for every meter of this city that is surrounded by the enemy," he said in his letter to Francis.
"I have little time to describe all the horrors I see here every day. Women with children and babies are living in bunkers at the factory, they are hungry and cold," he continued. "Every day they are living in the sights of enemy aircraft. The wounded die every day because there is no medicine, no water, no food."
"I am turning to you for help. Because the time has come when prayers are not enough. Help save them," Volnya also said. "After the bombing of the drama theater, no one has any trust in the Russian occupiers anymore. Bring the truth to the world, evacuate people and save their lives from the hands of Satan, who wants to burn all living things." ...
https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-marine-letter-pope-francis-mariupol-attack
Christopher Miller* @ChristopherJM | 11:40 AM · Apr 18, 2022:
Volyna, Ukraine marine commander in Mariupol, also published a plea for help to Pontifex (Pope Francis), via ukrpravda_news . "You've probably seen a lot in your life. But I'm sure you're never seen what is happening in Mariupol. This is what hell on earth looks like."
Командир морпіхів звернувся до Папи Римського – просить врятувати людей з Маріуполя
"Українська правда" — Понеділок, 18 квітня 2022, 13:14
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/18/7340412/
____________________________________________
...Volnya, who describes himself as Orthodox, says he believes in God and "I know that light always overcomes darkness."
"I have not seen your appeals to the world and I have not read all your recent statements; I have been fighting for more than 50 days, completely surrounded, and all I have time for is a fierce battle for every meter of this city that is surrounded by the enemy," he said in his letter to Francis.
"I have little time to describe all the horrors I see here every day. Women with children and babies are living in bunkers at the factory, they are hungry and cold," he continued. "Every day they are living in the sights of enemy aircraft. The wounded die every day because there is no medicine, no water, no food."
"I am turning to you for help. Because the time has come when prayers are not enough. Help save them," Volnya also said. "After the bombing of the drama theater, no one has any trust in the Russian occupiers anymore. Bring the truth to the world, evacuate people and save their lives from the hands of Satan, who wants to burn all living things." ...
https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-marine-letter-pope-francis-mariupol-attack
43margd
Russia Is Leaking Data Like a Sieve
Ukraine claims to have doxed Russian troops (who served in Bucha) and spies, while hacktivists are regularly leaking private information from Russian organizations.
Matt Burgess | Apr 13, 2022
...the names and contact details of 620 Russian spies who are registered to work at the Moscow office of the FSB, the country’s main security agency...put online by (Ukraine’s Central Intelligence Agency) with all the names and details freely available to anyone online. “Every European should know their names,” Ukrainian officials wrote in a Facebook post as they published the data...
https://www.wired.com/story/russia-ukraine-data/
Ukraine claims to have doxed Russian troops (who served in Bucha) and spies, while hacktivists are regularly leaking private information from Russian organizations.
Matt Burgess | Apr 13, 2022
...the names and contact details of 620 Russian spies who are registered to work at the Moscow office of the FSB, the country’s main security agency...put online by (Ukraine’s Central Intelligence Agency) with all the names and details freely available to anyone online. “Every European should know their names,” Ukrainian officials wrote in a Facebook post as they published the data...
https://www.wired.com/story/russia-ukraine-data/
442wonderY
>42 margd: Maybe Pope Francis will visit and bring supplies.
45margd
>44 2wonderY: Francis was mulling a visit to Ukraine. It may be difficult to resist heading to Mariupol, but I hope he doesn't go. I don't think he would be successful getting people out / provisions in, and Russians would likely kill him. Hope he finds some way between thoughts & prayers and martyrdom to help those poor people... (RU bombed World Central Kitchen in Kharkiv today, injuring four workers... ETA Putin also gave special award today to brigade that butchered Bucha. Francis would just be another opportunity to show how bad his RU can be...)
46lriley
>42 margd: I think what will happen to the Mariupol defenders is pretty much an Alamo situation which is not really uncommon throughout world history….as gallant/heroic as these defenders will be seen by Ukrainians and some maybe in the West 20 years from now it will be in a posthumous way. One might keep in mind that the Azov battalion known for its white supremacist right wing links was one of these resistant Ukrainian commands fighting so fiercely against the Russians. Things aren’t always very neat.
47lriley
>40 margd: Hopefully the Moskva was not carrying these weapons. Not exactly sure what it means but my gut tells me probably they were carrying them and that if you have nukes and other chemicals weapons sitting on the sea floor that they’ll need to be recovered so as not to invite a really bad environmental disaster in the near future. Judging by Putin and the Russian military’s disregard of safety measures during the occupation of the Chernobyl site my guess is they won’t do a thing.
48John5918
>46 lriley: an Alamo situation
With the marked difference that in Mariupol the Ukrainians are defending their own recognised territory against a foreign invader, whereas in the Alamo the Mexican attackers were reclaiming their own territory from a foreign invader.
With the marked difference that in Mariupol the Ukrainians are defending their own recognised territory against a foreign invader, whereas in the Alamo the Mexican attackers were reclaiming their own territory from a foreign invader.
49lriley
>48 John5918: True.
50John5918
Handling Zelensky: The UN’s Dilemma (PassBlue)
The United Nations has been widely criticized for failing to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine... However, those dismayed by the Council’s inaction suffer from a fundamental misconception of how the UN operates. While the organization is seen as primarily a peace body, it was essentially born out of raw power politics. The not-so-secret truth of the UN is that it only came into being through a realpolitik compromise between the two major victors of World War II — the United States and the Soviet Union... The two men {Roosevelt and Stalin} shared a common purpose on how to structure the body, based on a doctrine that protected their national interests and secured their permanent authority. As long as these conditions were met, both nations were willing to accept the UN as it is composed today... Despite its drawbacks, the UN is still capable of influencing the world — especially on something as ghastly and repellent as Russia’s assault on Ukraine. The UN embodies considerable moral authority... Russia, no matter what, must be in turmoil over the actions of the UN. The UN’s current secretary-general, almost three-quarters of its membership and its most notable human-rights agency have all denounced its actions. Russia has descended from being a founder of the organization to its most-reviled member. A monstrous black mark now shrouds its legacy...
51margd
olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba | 4:31 PM · Apr 18, 2022:
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Austria (2014-2021)
Not only soldiers, but also hundreds of civilians hiding right now on Azovstal premises in Mariupol. Putin doesn’t give them a way out. Reports of bombers flying in.
Will this be their last night on this earth?
1:57 ( https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1516152458627670023 )
-------------------------------------------------------
...U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a four-day humanitarian pause in the fighting this coming weekend, when Orthodox Christians celebrate Easter, to allow civilians to escape and humanitarian aid to be delivered.
...In Mariupol, scene of the war's heaviest fighting and worst humanitarian catastrophe, about 120 civilians living next to the sprawling steel plant left via humanitarian corridors, the Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, quoting Russian state TV...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-launches-new-eastern-of...
------------------------------------------------------
Russians plan to "level everything to the ground" at steel factory, per alleged communications intercept
Yulia Kesaieva and Nathan Hodge | 19 April 2022
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Tuesday released a purported communications intercept of a Russian ground unit commander, who said Russian aircraft were planning to "level everything to the ground" around Azovstal, the steel factory that is a redoubt of Ukrainian defenders in the besieged port city of Mariupol.
The audio recording released Tuesday purports to feature the voice of the leader of a Russian platoon four kilometers (or about 2.5 miles) from Azovstal.
The man's voice says, "We are expecting 'surprises' from Russia here."
"What kind of surprises?" a woman's voice replies.
"Three-ton ones, from the sky," the man replies, adding that his command "said to level everything to the ground."
..."Everybody left," the voice on the audio recording says. "Everyone who wanted to, all left. All that's left are the patriots and the very smart ones."
...Describing the impending aerial bombardment of Azovstal, the man adds, "A lieutenant colonel came and said, 'You will feel the effect of it yourself.'"
The man in the audio recording also mentions another Ukrainian town in Luhansk region, Lysychansk, saying it "is being wiped out from the face of the earth. For the third day in a row."
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-19-22/h_bcd846...
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Austria (2014-2021)
Not only soldiers, but also hundreds of civilians hiding right now on Azovstal premises in Mariupol. Putin doesn’t give them a way out. Reports of bombers flying in.
Will this be their last night on this earth?
1:57 ( https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1516152458627670023 )
-------------------------------------------------------
...U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a four-day humanitarian pause in the fighting this coming weekend, when Orthodox Christians celebrate Easter, to allow civilians to escape and humanitarian aid to be delivered.
...In Mariupol, scene of the war's heaviest fighting and worst humanitarian catastrophe, about 120 civilians living next to the sprawling steel plant left via humanitarian corridors, the Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, quoting Russian state TV...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-launches-new-eastern-of...
------------------------------------------------------
Russians plan to "level everything to the ground" at steel factory, per alleged communications intercept
Yulia Kesaieva and Nathan Hodge | 19 April 2022
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Tuesday released a purported communications intercept of a Russian ground unit commander, who said Russian aircraft were planning to "level everything to the ground" around Azovstal, the steel factory that is a redoubt of Ukrainian defenders in the besieged port city of Mariupol.
The audio recording released Tuesday purports to feature the voice of the leader of a Russian platoon four kilometers (or about 2.5 miles) from Azovstal.
The man's voice says, "We are expecting 'surprises' from Russia here."
"What kind of surprises?" a woman's voice replies.
"Three-ton ones, from the sky," the man replies, adding that his command "said to level everything to the ground."
..."Everybody left," the voice on the audio recording says. "Everyone who wanted to, all left. All that's left are the patriots and the very smart ones."
...Describing the impending aerial bombardment of Azovstal, the man adds, "A lieutenant colonel came and said, 'You will feel the effect of it yourself.'"
The man in the audio recording also mentions another Ukrainian town in Luhansk region, Lysychansk, saying it "is being wiped out from the face of the earth. For the third day in a row."
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-19-22/h_bcd846...
52John5918
In Sudan, Russia’s influence is growing (Globe and Mail)
Military rule is alive and well across Africa – and it is being strongly supported by Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Nowhere is that more obvious than in the Central African Republic and Mali, where the infamous Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries, overseen by an oligarch close to Mr. Putin, protects presidents and joins local security forces in repressing dissidents. It is happening in Sudan, too, where Wagnerites are reportedly in cahoots with the repressive generals who removed a popular civilian prime minister in October. And now, amidst its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is looking to expand the reach of its warships on Sudan’s shores...
53margd
>51 margd: contd.
Woke up to a video of a Mariupol defender begging the world to get them and civilians out, because they are outnumbered and have days, if not hours left to live. There are more than 500 wounded soldiers and over 1000 civilians sheltering there at Azovstal
1:01 ( https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1516675942009249792 )
- Anastasiia Lapatina (Kiev Independent) @lapatina_ | 3:11 AM · Apr 20, 2022
____________________________________________
ETA:
Opportunity for China or Turkey or Vatican or India or _________ to be a white knight...
Woke up to a video of a Mariupol defender begging the world to get them and civilians out, because they are outnumbered and have days, if not hours left to live. There are more than 500 wounded soldiers and over 1000 civilians sheltering there at Azovstal
1:01 ( https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1516675942009249792 )
- Anastasiia Lapatina (Kiev Independent) @lapatina_ | 3:11 AM · Apr 20, 2022
____________________________________________
ETA:
Opportunity for China or Turkey or Vatican or India or _________ to be a white knight...
54margd
Matthew Mpoke Bigg | April 20, 2022:
About a third of Ukraine’s crops and agricultural land may not be harvested or cultivated this year as a result of the conflict with Russia, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. “The vast destruction of crops and infrastructure threatens food security in Ukraine in 2022 and into 2023,” the organization said.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/20/world/ukraine-russia-war-donbas
__________________________________________
Russia Ducks Blame for Blowing Up Global Food Chains
Nisan Ahmado | April 19, 2022
On April 14, the United Nations Security Council held a meeting on the political and humanitarian situation in war-torn Yemen.
During the meeting, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield cited Russia’s “war of choice in Ukraine” as the main reason why wheat prices in Yemen are rising, worsening the dire humanitarian situation in the country. She said Yemen is one of the countries most vulnerable to rising wheat prices.
But Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador, responded by trying to shift blame onto Western countries and the sanctions they have imposed on Russia. He said those countries must recognize their responsibility for causing the crisis in the financial and food markets.
“The main factor for instability and the source of the problem today is not the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, but sanctions measures imposed on our country seeking to cut off any supplies from Russia and the supply chain,” Polyansky said.
That is misleading.
blockade of Ukrainian ports
naval mines
farming disruptions
active targeting grains silos and food storage facilities
Ukrainian farmers short of fertilizer, as well as pesticides and herbicides...seeds and fuel
Farmers fear being targeted by Russians or running across unexploded munitions in the fields.
Ukrainian officials protecting domestic supplies to ensure food is getting to Ukrainians’ tables
Jonathan Clibborn, an Irish farmer, told National Geographic...“I think (wheat) yields will be on the floor – maybe a third or a quarter of what they’d normally be”
Ukraine and Russia together produce 30 percent of the world’s traded wheat and 12 percent of its calories, National Geographic reported. Without Ukrainian and Russian food exports, the world could see a wave of instability similar to the 2012 Arab Spring.
Latest UN report shows spot freight rates for shipping remain at record-high levels
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to limit food exports to “unfriendly countries.”
although food is not sanctioned, and (Russian) wheat production has not ceased due to logistical disruption, merchants and banks are refraining from doing business with Russia, fearing fines by governments.
war-risk insurance rates jumped at least 400 percent for ships navigating the Black Sea, which dramatically raises the cost of trading with Russia.
soaring fertilizer prices have forced farmers around the world to adjust by limiting cultivation. In 2020, Russia and Belarus accounted for more than 20% of the world’s fertilizer exports.
On March 11, the World Food Program warned that 2022 could be a year of “catastrophic hunger,” as Ukraine is a major supplier of food to the group.
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-food-security-ukraine/31811551.html
About a third of Ukraine’s crops and agricultural land may not be harvested or cultivated this year as a result of the conflict with Russia, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. “The vast destruction of crops and infrastructure threatens food security in Ukraine in 2022 and into 2023,” the organization said.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/20/world/ukraine-russia-war-donbas
__________________________________________
Russia Ducks Blame for Blowing Up Global Food Chains
Nisan Ahmado | April 19, 2022
On April 14, the United Nations Security Council held a meeting on the political and humanitarian situation in war-torn Yemen.
During the meeting, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield cited Russia’s “war of choice in Ukraine” as the main reason why wheat prices in Yemen are rising, worsening the dire humanitarian situation in the country. She said Yemen is one of the countries most vulnerable to rising wheat prices.
But Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador, responded by trying to shift blame onto Western countries and the sanctions they have imposed on Russia. He said those countries must recognize their responsibility for causing the crisis in the financial and food markets.
“The main factor for instability and the source of the problem today is not the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, but sanctions measures imposed on our country seeking to cut off any supplies from Russia and the supply chain,” Polyansky said.
That is misleading.
blockade of Ukrainian ports
naval mines
farming disruptions
active targeting grains silos and food storage facilities
Ukrainian farmers short of fertilizer, as well as pesticides and herbicides...seeds and fuel
Farmers fear being targeted by Russians or running across unexploded munitions in the fields.
Ukrainian officials protecting domestic supplies to ensure food is getting to Ukrainians’ tables
Jonathan Clibborn, an Irish farmer, told National Geographic...“I think (wheat) yields will be on the floor – maybe a third or a quarter of what they’d normally be”
Ukraine and Russia together produce 30 percent of the world’s traded wheat and 12 percent of its calories, National Geographic reported. Without Ukrainian and Russian food exports, the world could see a wave of instability similar to the 2012 Arab Spring.
Latest UN report shows spot freight rates for shipping remain at record-high levels
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to limit food exports to “unfriendly countries.”
although food is not sanctioned, and (Russian) wheat production has not ceased due to logistical disruption, merchants and banks are refraining from doing business with Russia, fearing fines by governments.
war-risk insurance rates jumped at least 400 percent for ships navigating the Black Sea, which dramatically raises the cost of trading with Russia.
soaring fertilizer prices have forced farmers around the world to adjust by limiting cultivation. In 2020, Russia and Belarus accounted for more than 20% of the world’s fertilizer exports.
On March 11, the World Food Program warned that 2022 could be a year of “catastrophic hunger,” as Ukraine is a major supplier of food to the group.
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-food-security-ukraine/31811551.html
55John5918
Putin’s key supporters are now playing a desperate face-saving game in Ukraine (Guardian)
Jeremy Corbyn would like to see Nato ‘ultimately disband’ (Guardian)
Russian oligarch lambasts country's 'massacre' (BBC)
Russia’s humiliated military and intelligence blocs know they have let their leader down, and need the war to go on...
Jeremy Corbyn would like to see Nato ‘ultimately disband’ (Guardian)
Former Labour leader does not blame Nato for Russian invasion but questions role of military alliances...
Russian oligarch lambasts country's 'massacre' (BBC)
A Russian oligarch has lambasted the country's "massacre" in Ukraine and called for an end to the "crazy war". Oleg Tinkov wrote in a profanity-littered Instagram post that he did not see "any beneficiary" of the conflict. Mr Tinkov is one of Russia's most well-known entrepreneurs and founded the global online bank Tinkoff Bank and owned the cycling team Tinkoff-Saxo. He is also one of the most high profile Russians to publicly condemn President Vladimir Putin's actions. Two of the country's most prominent oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska have made separate calls for peace, but have stopped short of direct criticism...
56margd
>55 John5918: Jeremy Corbyn would like to see Nato ‘ultimately disband’ (Guardian)
From Henry VIII's Anglican Church to Conservatives' Scottish referendum and Brex-it, and now Labour disbanding NATO--UK doesn't do multi-lateral well? Except ones it leads--Empire, Commonwealth. Just observation / asking.
From Henry VIII's Anglican Church to Conservatives' Scottish referendum and Brex-it, and now Labour disbanding NATO--UK doesn't do multi-lateral well? Except ones it leads--Empire, Commonwealth. Just observation / asking.
57John5918
>56 margd:
I suppose that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that it's a brave person who dares to question the militaristic culture of the western world. I'm all in favour of multilateralism for peace and development - UN, AU, EU, IGAD, SADC, OECD, Interpol, etc - but it's high time we questioned the prominence given to military alliances, and also demand that as many resources - human, financial, technical, research, etc - be given to nonviolent strategies and alliances as to archaic military ones.
I suppose that's one way of looking at it. Another would be that it's a brave person who dares to question the militaristic culture of the western world. I'm all in favour of multilateralism for peace and development - UN, AU, EU, IGAD, SADC, OECD, Interpol, etc - but it's high time we questioned the prominence given to military alliances, and also demand that as many resources - human, financial, technical, research, etc - be given to nonviolent strategies and alliances as to archaic military ones.
58lriley
Sweden’s Prime Minister Olof Palme tried to distance himself both from NATO and any kind of military alliance with the Soviet Union and there is good reason to suspect that helped motivate those who assassinated him. Both Reagan and Thatcher railed against Palme at the same time as Reagan was trading guns for oil with Iran and arming the Contras in Nicaragua. The murder is still really unsolved (despite Swedish police a year or so ago supplying a scapegoat) but the likelihood is it was the work of western state security services.
59margd
Jim Sciutto (CNN) @jimsciutto | 4:52 AM · Apr 21, 2022:
New: Purported intercepts show Russian soldier saying commander told them:
“f’ing shoot all the civilians to the end”
And warned the troops: “whoever leaves their post will be a deserter."
Another soldier says: "tell them to F-off."
1:39 ( https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1517063600241885184 )
_____________________________________________
Mark Hertling (frmr lead US Army in Europe) @MarkHertling | 10:26 PM · Apr 20, 2022:
.@jimsciutto provided tapes of alleged conversations between Russian soldiers to @donlemon at the start of his show tonight.
In listening, I thought of 2 things:
1. There is no trust between leaders & led in the Russian Army...that will contribute to their defeat.
2. Schofield's definition of discipline-which cadets learns their 1st week at West Point-remains relevant to combat leaders in any army, but it doesn't seem important in Russia.
That "definition" was provided by MG Schofield in 1879:
"The discipline which makes the soldiers of a free country reliable in battle is not to be gained by harsh or tyrannical treatment. On the contrary, such treatment is far more likely to destroy than to make an army."
Every fighting force requires trust between leaders & led.
______________________________________________
Putin claims victory in Mariupol, leaving Ukrainian defenders holed up
By Pavel Polityuk | April 21, 2022
Summary
'No need to climb into these catacombs', says Putin
Ukraine seeks talks on fate of defenders and civilians
Resolution in Mariupol would end biggest battle of war
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/leading-putin-ally-predicts-mariupol-v...
______________________________________________
"Russia is now so isolated from the rest of the world that Mr. Putin sees little downside to provocative actions" Except Putin apparently refraining from using soldiers, bunker busters, tactical nukes, or chemical weapons on Mariupol holdouts--so intl public relations (such as they are), domestic PR (a "win" for Orthodox Easter), and value of Mariupol as negotiating chip?
Russia’s Missile Test Fuels U.S. Fears of an Isolated Putin
David E. Sanger | April 20, 2022
WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin’s calculated move on Wednesday to test-launch a new intercontinental ballistic missile, declaring it a warning to those in the West who “try to threaten our country,” fed into a growing concern inside the Biden administration: that Russia is now so isolated from the rest of the world that Mr. Putin sees little downside to provocative actions...
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/20/us/politics/russia-putin-missile-test.html
New: Purported intercepts show Russian soldier saying commander told them:
“f’ing shoot all the civilians to the end”
And warned the troops: “whoever leaves their post will be a deserter."
Another soldier says: "tell them to F-off."
1:39 ( https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1517063600241885184 )
_____________________________________________
Mark Hertling (frmr lead US Army in Europe) @MarkHertling | 10:26 PM · Apr 20, 2022:
.@jimsciutto provided tapes of alleged conversations between Russian soldiers to @donlemon at the start of his show tonight.
In listening, I thought of 2 things:
1. There is no trust between leaders & led in the Russian Army...that will contribute to their defeat.
2. Schofield's definition of discipline-which cadets learns their 1st week at West Point-remains relevant to combat leaders in any army, but it doesn't seem important in Russia.
That "definition" was provided by MG Schofield in 1879:
"The discipline which makes the soldiers of a free country reliable in battle is not to be gained by harsh or tyrannical treatment. On the contrary, such treatment is far more likely to destroy than to make an army."
Every fighting force requires trust between leaders & led.
______________________________________________
Putin claims victory in Mariupol, leaving Ukrainian defenders holed up
By Pavel Polityuk | April 21, 2022
Summary
'No need to climb into these catacombs', says Putin
Ukraine seeks talks on fate of defenders and civilians
Resolution in Mariupol would end biggest battle of war
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/leading-putin-ally-predicts-mariupol-v...
______________________________________________
"Russia is now so isolated from the rest of the world that Mr. Putin sees little downside to provocative actions" Except Putin apparently refraining from using soldiers, bunker busters, tactical nukes, or chemical weapons on Mariupol holdouts--so intl public relations (such as they are), domestic PR (a "win" for Orthodox Easter), and value of Mariupol as negotiating chip?
Russia’s Missile Test Fuels U.S. Fears of an Isolated Putin
David E. Sanger | April 20, 2022
WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin’s calculated move on Wednesday to test-launch a new intercontinental ballistic missile, declaring it a warning to those in the West who “try to threaten our country,” fed into a growing concern inside the Biden administration: that Russia is now so isolated from the rest of the world that Mr. Putin sees little downside to provocative actions...
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/20/us/politics/russia-putin-missile-test.html
60lriley
>59 margd: occupations are impossible enough and Ukraine is just awash in military grade weapons. Throw in the lack of any real connection between enlisted and the Russian officer class. It’s like two completely different and alien worlds.
That said the military academies in the United States are hardly bastions of the poor, working or even middle classes. When I was a kid my dad took us through Annapolis once. Everywhere you looked were the most expensive sports cars. The kind you almost never see anywhere. Getting an appointment is pretty much about grades and who you or your parents know.
That said the military academies in the United States are hardly bastions of the poor, working or even middle classes. When I was a kid my dad took us through Annapolis once. Everywhere you looked were the most expensive sports cars. The kind you almost never see anywhere. Getting an appointment is pretty much about grades and who you or your parents know.
61margd
Six Killed in Fire at Russian Defence Research Institute - Reports
Reuters | April 21, 2022
(Reuters) - Six people were killed on Thursday after a blaze broke out at a defence research institute in the Russian city of Tver about 160 km (100 miles) northwest of Moscow, Russian news agencies quoted local authorities as saying.
The authorities said 27 people had been injured. TASS news agency reported, citing emergency services, that at least 10 people were missing.
Footage from the scene circulating on Russian social media showed thick smoke and flames billowing from the institute's windows. There was no official word on what caused the fire.
The institute is engaged in aerospace research, including on a unified air defence system for the CIS bloc of former Soviet republics, according to the Russian defence ministry's website...
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-21/seven-killed-in-fire-at-ru...
--------------------------------------------------------
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 10:18 AM · Apr 21, 2022:
American racecar driver - Japanese SUPER GT...
BREAKING: Russian military research facility, apparently involved in development of at least some of the S-series surface-to-air missiles and Iskander ballistic missiles, is on fire with dead & many injured.
0:25 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517145872609341440 )
BREAKING: Russian military research facility, apparently involved in development of surface-to-air & ballistic missiles, located in Tver, not too far from Moscow, is on fire with multiple dead and injured.
0:55 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517145926527201280 )
My forecast: If we start seeing a pattern develop involving destruction of military facilities like this in Russia, then this was likely sabotage by the Russian anti-Putin forces that are finally getting organized.
Another source:
"This is what the Aerospace Defense Research Institute building in Tver looks like now.
It developed Iskanders and S-400, and today it burned down: according to the main version, the old wiring, wooden ceilings and cheap plastic cladding on the inside let it down.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517150233804767234/photo/1
The fire in the building could not be extinguished for more than 4 hours, despite the use of helicopters.
As of this moment, there are two dead and 30 injured."
This was either an accident or sabotage by the Russians themselves that are against Putin. I don't think this is the work of the Ukrainian Security Service - they are too occupied with operations inside Ukraine that are way more pressing.
This is not a stockpile of missiles that was destroyed - which would save Ukrainian lives right now. This is a research facility filled with scientists. Consequences of the destruction of this facility likely won't be felt for months if not years in terms of physical weapons.
Russian propaganda news are officially claiming the fire was an accident due to faulty wires, etc. If this was a false-flag they'd be immediately blaming an "enemy" of Russia.
Once Russian propaganda news finally get the memo from the Kremlin - you may start hearing a new story that will place blame on Russian "enemies" - the Kremlin always weaponizes such juicy developments regardless of the cause to serve their objectives. Total mobilization is goal.
This was presumed to have been done by Iskander ballistic missiles on Ozerne Airbase in Ukraine back in Feb:
Horrible accuracy. Only 2 out 6 missiles actually hit the runway. And an inconsequential part of runway at that.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517168496680996864/photo/1
-------------------------------------------------------
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 12:10 PM · Apr 21, 2022:
May be beginning of the aforementioned pattern - same day, completely different part of Russia:
Quote Tweet
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 2h
🧵BREAKING: Russia - Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant burned down today on the outskirts of Moscow. This is the largest Russian manufacturer of chemical solvents. Located 250 miles EAST of Moscow. We are beginning to see a pattern develop.
0:15 ( https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1517183315794702336 )
_________________________________________
Two Russian Oligarchs Die in Mysterious Circumstances 24 Hours Apart
Chloe Mayer | 4/21/22
...Former Kremlin official and Gazprombank vice-president Vladislav Avayev, 51, was found dead in his luxury Moscow apartment alongside the bodies of his wife and 13-year-old daughter on Monday. It appeared he had shot them before turning the gun on himself. The bodies were found by distraught 26-year-old daughter Anastasia after she was unable to get hold of her family.
...The following day former Novatek deputy chairman Sergey Protosenya, 55, his wife Natalya, 53, and 18-year-old daughter, Maria, were found dead at their Spanish mansion. The scene suggested the women had been stabbed, before Protosenya hanged himself in the garden. The alarm was raised by the couple's teenage son, who was staying in France, after he was unable to reach his parents at their home in the coastal town of Lloret de Mar.
...Unconfirmed reports from El Punt Avui suggested some inconsistencies had been discovered at the Protosenya home, with the news site claiming the two women were stabbed as they slept leaving a pool of blood. However, no blood stains were found on Protosenya...
https://www.newsweek.com/oligarchs-murder-suicide-1699766
Reuters | April 21, 2022
(Reuters) - Six people were killed on Thursday after a blaze broke out at a defence research institute in the Russian city of Tver about 160 km (100 miles) northwest of Moscow, Russian news agencies quoted local authorities as saying.
The authorities said 27 people had been injured. TASS news agency reported, citing emergency services, that at least 10 people were missing.
Footage from the scene circulating on Russian social media showed thick smoke and flames billowing from the institute's windows. There was no official word on what caused the fire.
The institute is engaged in aerospace research, including on a unified air defence system for the CIS bloc of former Soviet republics, according to the Russian defence ministry's website...
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-21/seven-killed-in-fire-at-ru...
--------------------------------------------------------
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 10:18 AM · Apr 21, 2022:
American racecar driver - Japanese SUPER GT...
BREAKING: Russian military research facility, apparently involved in development of at least some of the S-series surface-to-air missiles and Iskander ballistic missiles, is on fire with dead & many injured.
0:25 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517145872609341440 )
BREAKING: Russian military research facility, apparently involved in development of surface-to-air & ballistic missiles, located in Tver, not too far from Moscow, is on fire with multiple dead and injured.
0:55 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517145926527201280 )
My forecast: If we start seeing a pattern develop involving destruction of military facilities like this in Russia, then this was likely sabotage by the Russian anti-Putin forces that are finally getting organized.
Another source:
"This is what the Aerospace Defense Research Institute building in Tver looks like now.
It developed Iskanders and S-400, and today it burned down: according to the main version, the old wiring, wooden ceilings and cheap plastic cladding on the inside let it down.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517150233804767234/photo/1
The fire in the building could not be extinguished for more than 4 hours, despite the use of helicopters.
As of this moment, there are two dead and 30 injured."
This was either an accident or sabotage by the Russians themselves that are against Putin. I don't think this is the work of the Ukrainian Security Service - they are too occupied with operations inside Ukraine that are way more pressing.
This is not a stockpile of missiles that was destroyed - which would save Ukrainian lives right now. This is a research facility filled with scientists. Consequences of the destruction of this facility likely won't be felt for months if not years in terms of physical weapons.
Russian propaganda news are officially claiming the fire was an accident due to faulty wires, etc. If this was a false-flag they'd be immediately blaming an "enemy" of Russia.
Once Russian propaganda news finally get the memo from the Kremlin - you may start hearing a new story that will place blame on Russian "enemies" - the Kremlin always weaponizes such juicy developments regardless of the cause to serve their objectives. Total mobilization is goal.
This was presumed to have been done by Iskander ballistic missiles on Ozerne Airbase in Ukraine back in Feb:
Horrible accuracy. Only 2 out 6 missiles actually hit the runway. And an inconsequential part of runway at that.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517168496680996864/photo/1
-------------------------------------------------------
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 12:10 PM · Apr 21, 2022:
May be beginning of the aforementioned pattern - same day, completely different part of Russia:
Quote Tweet
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 2h
🧵BREAKING: Russia - Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant burned down today on the outskirts of Moscow. This is the largest Russian manufacturer of chemical solvents. Located 250 miles EAST of Moscow. We are beginning to see a pattern develop.
0:15 ( https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1517183315794702336 )
_________________________________________
Two Russian Oligarchs Die in Mysterious Circumstances 24 Hours Apart
Chloe Mayer | 4/21/22
...Former Kremlin official and Gazprombank vice-president Vladislav Avayev, 51, was found dead in his luxury Moscow apartment alongside the bodies of his wife and 13-year-old daughter on Monday. It appeared he had shot them before turning the gun on himself. The bodies were found by distraught 26-year-old daughter Anastasia after she was unable to get hold of her family.
...The following day former Novatek deputy chairman Sergey Protosenya, 55, his wife Natalya, 53, and 18-year-old daughter, Maria, were found dead at their Spanish mansion. The scene suggested the women had been stabbed, before Protosenya hanged himself in the garden. The alarm was raised by the couple's teenage son, who was staying in France, after he was unable to reach his parents at their home in the coastal town of Lloret de Mar.
...Unconfirmed reports from El Punt Avui suggested some inconsistencies had been discovered at the Protosenya home, with the news site claiming the two women were stabbed as they slept leaving a pool of blood. However, no blood stains were found on Protosenya...
https://www.newsweek.com/oligarchs-murder-suicide-1699766
62margd
>61 margd: contd.
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 9:25 PM · Apr 21, 2022:
UNCONFIRMED RUMOR: The Aerospace Defense Research Institute building in Tver, about 2.5 hours from the Kremlin, apparently housed some kind of military satellite control room utilized for war in Ukraine. Russian saboteurs knew exactly what to hit. BIG DEAL.
0:53 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517313510425776128 )
From Igor Sushko
_________________________________________
5 Russian Enlistment Offices Hit By Arson Attacks – Reports
22 April 2022
As many as five Russian military enlistment offices have been set on fire since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, independent Russian media reported Thursday.
The latest incident took place in the remote Mordovia region Monday, according to the 7x7 news website. Molotov cocktails destroyed several computers and a database of conscripts in the Zubova Polyana settlement.
"The recruitment campaign in the local districts was put on pause," media outlet iStories reported...
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/22/5-russian-enlistment-offices-hit-by-ar...
-------------------------------------------------------
Translated from Russian by google
Соболь Любовь @ | 2:53 PM · Apr 21, 2022:
Lawyer, politician, associate of Alexei Navalny
Wow. In Russia, military registration and enlistment offices have been set on fire to stop the spring conscription. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, at least five cases are known: in the Moscow region, in Voronezh, in the Sverdlovsk region, Ivanovo region and Mordovia: https://t.me/istories_media/1108
0:35 ( https://twitter.com/SobolLubov/status/1517215036808253445 )
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 9:25 PM · Apr 21, 2022:
UNCONFIRMED RUMOR: The Aerospace Defense Research Institute building in Tver, about 2.5 hours from the Kremlin, apparently housed some kind of military satellite control room utilized for war in Ukraine. Russian saboteurs knew exactly what to hit. BIG DEAL.
0:53 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517313510425776128 )
From Igor Sushko
_________________________________________
5 Russian Enlistment Offices Hit By Arson Attacks – Reports
22 April 2022
As many as five Russian military enlistment offices have been set on fire since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, independent Russian media reported Thursday.
The latest incident took place in the remote Mordovia region Monday, according to the 7x7 news website. Molotov cocktails destroyed several computers and a database of conscripts in the Zubova Polyana settlement.
"The recruitment campaign in the local districts was put on pause," media outlet iStories reported...
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/22/5-russian-enlistment-offices-hit-by-ar...
-------------------------------------------------------
Translated from Russian by google
Соболь Любовь @ | 2:53 PM · Apr 21, 2022:
Lawyer, politician, associate of Alexei Navalny
Wow. In Russia, military registration and enlistment offices have been set on fire to stop the spring conscription. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, at least five cases are known: in the Moscow region, in Voronezh, in the Sverdlovsk region, Ivanovo region and Mordovia: https://t.me/istories_media/1108
0:35 ( https://twitter.com/SobolLubov/status/1517215036808253445 )
63margd
Russia's "liberation" of Mariupol looks like this, according to Ramzan Kadyrov's* Telegram channel
2:20 ( https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1517202551858421763 )
- max seddon (Financial Times) @maxseddon | 2:04 PM · Apr 21, 2022
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Ramzan Akhmadovich Kadyrov is a Russian and Chechen politician currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic. He was formerly a member of the Chechen independence movement and is a lieutenant general in the Russian military. Wikipedia
_________________________________________________________
Mariupol, the year before "liberation":
Day of the City Mariupol, 2021…
1:00 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517205270530822144 )
From Serg Wысоцкий
- Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 2:14 PM · Apr 21, 2022
Aggregating and curating news, politics, current affairs, history and culture from the Visegrád countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia).
__________________________________________________________
Mariupol founders have been "liberated" by Russia before, as Christians moved from wartorn Crimea ... largely unwillingly sounds like.
Kamil Galeev (Wilson Center) @kamilkazani | 5:48 PM · Apr 21, 2022:
Mariupol was founded by the Crimean Christians deported by Russia in 1770s. Deportation of Christians from Crimea received surprisingly little international coverage. So let's discuss it. Until XVIII century Muslim Tatar Crimean Khanate was a vassal state of the Ottoman Empire...
THREAD: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1517259121724112898
2:20 ( https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1517202551858421763 )
- max seddon (Financial Times) @maxseddon | 2:04 PM · Apr 21, 2022
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Ramzan Akhmadovich Kadyrov is a Russian and Chechen politician currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic. He was formerly a member of the Chechen independence movement and is a lieutenant general in the Russian military. Wikipedia
_________________________________________________________
Mariupol, the year before "liberation":
Day of the City Mariupol, 2021…
1:00 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517205270530822144 )
From Serg Wысоцкий
- Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 2:14 PM · Apr 21, 2022
Aggregating and curating news, politics, current affairs, history and culture from the Visegrád countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia).
__________________________________________________________
Mariupol founders have been "liberated" by Russia before, as Christians moved from wartorn Crimea ... largely unwillingly sounds like.
Kamil Galeev (Wilson Center) @kamilkazani | 5:48 PM · Apr 21, 2022:
Mariupol was founded by the Crimean Christians deported by Russia in 1770s. Deportation of Christians from Crimea received surprisingly little international coverage. So let's discuss it. Until XVIII century Muslim Tatar Crimean Khanate was a vassal state of the Ottoman Empire...
THREAD: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1517259121724112898
64margd
See diagram of Azovstal tunnels!
"Perhaps the only way to clear the place out would be to use a chemical weapon or chlorine gas" :(
The tunnels from Azovstal lead to the entire city.
Defenders can popp up in multiple places.
Image ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1516669534001848324 )
- Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 2:46 AM · Apr 20, 2022
"Perhaps the only way to clear the place out would be to use a chemical weapon or chlorine gas" :(
The tunnels from Azovstal lead to the entire city.
Defenders can popp up in multiple places.
Image ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1516669534001848324 )
- Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 2:46 AM · Apr 20, 2022
65margd
Opinion: The West can’t afford to neglect Moldova — because Putin won’t
Josh Rogin | 21 April 2022
...The new government in Moldova, one of the region’s poorest countries, is trying to break a long-running pattern of political dysfunction, systemic corruption and malign influence coming from Moscow. The December 2020 landslide election of Moldova’s first outright pro-Western president, the Harvard-educated former World Bank economist Maia Sandu, presents the best chance yet to move Moldova firmly into the Western camp.
...The Moldovan government has always tried to balance its relationships, for understandable reasons. Russia has 1,500 troops occupying the Moldovan breakaway territory of Transnistria and controls Moldova’s energy supply. There is still a large pro-Russian constituency in Moldovan politics, business and society.
But the invasion of Ukraine has changed everything in geopolitics, especially for Ukraine’s neighbors who now see that “neutrality” does not protect a small country from being viciously attacked on Putin’s whim...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/21/russia-putin-united-states-mu...
Josh Rogin | 21 April 2022
...The new government in Moldova, one of the region’s poorest countries, is trying to break a long-running pattern of political dysfunction, systemic corruption and malign influence coming from Moscow. The December 2020 landslide election of Moldova’s first outright pro-Western president, the Harvard-educated former World Bank economist Maia Sandu, presents the best chance yet to move Moldova firmly into the Western camp.
...The Moldovan government has always tried to balance its relationships, for understandable reasons. Russia has 1,500 troops occupying the Moldovan breakaway territory of Transnistria and controls Moldova’s energy supply. There is still a large pro-Russian constituency in Moldovan politics, business and society.
But the invasion of Ukraine has changed everything in geopolitics, especially for Ukraine’s neighbors who now see that “neutrality” does not protect a small country from being viciously attacked on Putin’s whim...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/21/russia-putin-united-states-mu...
66John5918
>65 margd:
As long as people are still talking of moving countries "into the Western camp" (or any other camp) the prospects for lasting peace remain poor.
As long as people are still talking of moving countries "into the Western camp" (or any other camp) the prospects for lasting peace remain poor.
67margd
>66 John5918: As long as Putin wields power, the prospects for lasting peace remain poor. He's already playing the protecting-Russian-speakers card in Moldova... Moldova's best hope is that Ukraine prevails, I think.
68margd
Russian General Lets Slip a Secret Plan to Invade Another Country and Seize Ukraine’s Entire Coastline
The Russian military now says the official plan is to create a land corridor all the way along Ukraine’s coast to Moldova, where another border is under threat.
Barbie Latza Nadeau | Apr. 22, 2022 7:58AM ET
As Russian troops tighten their grip on the strategic port town of Mariupol, their strategy is finally becoming clear. Russian military commander Rustam Minnekaev now says the second phase of President Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” is focused on establishing a “land corridor” from the Donbas all the way to Moldova, which would cut off the rest of Ukraine from the sea.
“One of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to the Crimea, as well as influence the vital objects of the Ukrainian economy,” Minnekaev said Friday at a meeting with the Union of Defense Industries, as reported by the Russian state-owned Interfax. “Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.” Transnistria is a separatist region of Moldova that has so far not been officially involved in the war despite hosting a Russian military base since the 1990s.
The general’s words suggest that Moldova’s sovereign borders would also come under threat from further Russian expansion. Phony efforts to protect Russian-speaking peoples have often foreshadowed Putin’s imperial invasions...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-general-lets-slip-a-secret-plan-to-invade-...
The Russian military now says the official plan is to create a land corridor all the way along Ukraine’s coast to Moldova, where another border is under threat.
Barbie Latza Nadeau | Apr. 22, 2022 7:58AM ET
As Russian troops tighten their grip on the strategic port town of Mariupol, their strategy is finally becoming clear. Russian military commander Rustam Minnekaev now says the second phase of President Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” is focused on establishing a “land corridor” from the Donbas all the way to Moldova, which would cut off the rest of Ukraine from the sea.
“One of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to the Crimea, as well as influence the vital objects of the Ukrainian economy,” Minnekaev said Friday at a meeting with the Union of Defense Industries, as reported by the Russian state-owned Interfax. “Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.” Transnistria is a separatist region of Moldova that has so far not been officially involved in the war despite hosting a Russian military base since the 1990s.
The general’s words suggest that Moldova’s sovereign borders would also come under threat from further Russian expansion. Phony efforts to protect Russian-speaking peoples have often foreshadowed Putin’s imperial invasions...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-general-lets-slip-a-secret-plan-to-invade-...
69John5918
Sudan - Cold Shoulder for UN, Warm Embrace for Russia (DW)
Sudan's military government is on the fast track to end the country's democratic dialogue -- not only by attacking the UN's Sudan mission, but also by appeasing a long-standing ally: Russia... While Sudan's military is turning its back to any possible democratic road map under UN leadership, the country has been quietly moving closer to its fellow autocratic ally, Russia. In the years leading up to the invasion of Ukraine, Sudan and Russia have renewed their political and economic ties. "In fact, after the Sochi summit with Vladimir Putin in 2017, Sudan's longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir famously said that Sudan would become Russia's key to Africa"... Back in 2017, agreements between Sudan and Russia included setting up a Russian naval base on the Red Sea, a plan which is now gaining momentum, and allowing a Russian subsidiary of the infamous private contractor Wagner Group to mine and export gold to Russia...
70margd
Russian support for Moldovan neutrality. That plus 50 cents will buy Moldova a cup of coffee--or it used to.
Government of Republic of Moldova
Press release | 22/04/2022 - 20:13
April 22nd 2022, Chișinău - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration took note of the statements of the representative of Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
To this end, the MFAEI summoned Oleg Vasnetov, the Russian Ambassador to Moldova, and expressed deep concern over the statements made by the Russian official. These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, within its internationally recognized borders.
During the meeting, it was reiterated that the Republic of Moldova, in line with its Constitution, is a neutral state and this principle must be respected by all international actors, including the Russian Federation.
https://mfa.gov.md/en/content/press-release-0
Government of Republic of Moldova
Press release | 22/04/2022 - 20:13
April 22nd 2022, Chișinău - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration took note of the statements of the representative of Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
To this end, the MFAEI summoned Oleg Vasnetov, the Russian Ambassador to Moldova, and expressed deep concern over the statements made by the Russian official. These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, within its internationally recognized borders.
During the meeting, it was reiterated that the Republic of Moldova, in line with its Constitution, is a neutral state and this principle must be respected by all international actors, including the Russian Federation.
https://mfa.gov.md/en/content/press-release-0
71margd
Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael | 9:22 AM · Apr 23, 2022:
Director, Russia Studies at CNA. Senior Adjunct Fellow, CNAS (Center for a New American Security, DC). I follow Russian military capabilities, operations & strategy...
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1517856532976881664
I’ve been traveling and not writing much these past two weeks. Some brief thoughts about the second phase of the war, Russia’s offensive to (take) the Donbas, and implications. Thread. (map from Nathan below). 1/
Map ( https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1517856532976881664/photo/1 )
Without national mobilization, I think the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state & availability of forces. Whether it succeeds, or fails, the Russian military will be largely exhausted in terms of offensive potential. 2/
The Russian attack thus far seems to be an advance on Slovyansk from Izyum, pressing the Severodonetsk salient, and pushing southwest from Izyum (west of Kramatorsk) to attempt a partial envelopment of UKR positions in the northern part of the Donbas. 3/
This is a risky operation. UKR forces have been reinforcing around Kharkiv, and attacking to threaten the Russian ground lines of communication for this offensive. Even if Russian forces make significant gains, they could be pressed to hold territory and vulnerable afterwards. 4/
UKR forces appear to have conducted a tactical retreat in some areas, blown bridges, and at the same time could position for a counter attack to threaten the sustainment of the Russian offensive. 5/
Russian forces have taken heavy losses in manpower and equipment, with far fewer combat effective formations available. Not clear what we are calling ‘BTGs’ at this point and their level of manning. Russian reinforcements are far from sufficient to replace earlier losses. 6/
In the south, Russian forces had been tied down in Mariupol. Putin’s announcement that they are going to avoid storming Azovstal probably reflects that they can’t afford to lose further manpower and need those units for the Donbas offensive. 7/
Even still, it’s unclear if the southern axis of the planned offensive will be more than a fixing action. The Southern Military District's forces have been mauled over 2 months of fighting. This means a larger operational envelopment is probably beyond their means to support. 8/
Russian forces in the southwest around Kherson city are struggling to consolidate a defensible perimeter west of the river. The units deployed there are relatively light, and under pressure. They could even be forced over time to retreat east across the Dnipro. 9/
Ukraine has been deploying reinforcements to Zaporizhia, Donbas & Kharkiv. Russia has made little effort to disrupt ground lines of communication into the Donbas. This means that a Russian success is at best contingent & UKR could be in position to launch counteroffensives. 10/
Expansion of support to include armor, IFVs, and artillery is going to allow Ukraine to replace losses and equip reserve brigades (esp artillery and ammunition which Ukraine needs). Hence the general trajectory of correlation of forces in this war is not in Russia’s favor. 11/
If the Russian military sends units in piecemeal, sticking to roads, with narrow advances – they will be defeated by UKR as they have in other battles. I’ve seen them make adjustments in some areas, but some of the problems are structural. 12/
Reticent to make any predictions on how the battle for the Donbas will go. These things are contingent, and it depends. The outcome can range from Russian forces making gains to suffering another significant defeat. 13/
Dvornikov's appointment changes little. There’s not much distinguishing him from other Russian generals. The more pertinent question is how/if the Russian military has reorganized command and control, air support, and logistics for this offensive. 14/
Donbas is a relatively urban region. Russian forces likely need Severodonetsk to control Luhansk and Slovyansk + Kramatorsk in order to claim they have captured Donetsk. These could end up prolonged and costly fights in urban terrain. 15/
I think it is fair to say that the decisive period of the war was the first three weeks (maybe even first 4 days). Whatever happens in this next phase, the Russian military is likely to exhaust its offensive potential in the near term. 16/
Does this presage a stalemate? Not necessarily. UKR has its own offensive options. Russia may next try to consolidate control over territory held and pressure UKR via blockade. Its too early to predict what the next phase might look like & it depends on what UKR chooses to do.
Director, Russia Studies at CNA. Senior Adjunct Fellow, CNAS (Center for a New American Security, DC). I follow Russian military capabilities, operations & strategy...
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1517856532976881664
I’ve been traveling and not writing much these past two weeks. Some brief thoughts about the second phase of the war, Russia’s offensive to (take) the Donbas, and implications. Thread. (map from Nathan below). 1/
Map ( https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1517856532976881664/photo/1 )
Without national mobilization, I think the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state & availability of forces. Whether it succeeds, or fails, the Russian military will be largely exhausted in terms of offensive potential. 2/
The Russian attack thus far seems to be an advance on Slovyansk from Izyum, pressing the Severodonetsk salient, and pushing southwest from Izyum (west of Kramatorsk) to attempt a partial envelopment of UKR positions in the northern part of the Donbas. 3/
This is a risky operation. UKR forces have been reinforcing around Kharkiv, and attacking to threaten the Russian ground lines of communication for this offensive. Even if Russian forces make significant gains, they could be pressed to hold territory and vulnerable afterwards. 4/
UKR forces appear to have conducted a tactical retreat in some areas, blown bridges, and at the same time could position for a counter attack to threaten the sustainment of the Russian offensive. 5/
Russian forces have taken heavy losses in manpower and equipment, with far fewer combat effective formations available. Not clear what we are calling ‘BTGs’ at this point and their level of manning. Russian reinforcements are far from sufficient to replace earlier losses. 6/
In the south, Russian forces had been tied down in Mariupol. Putin’s announcement that they are going to avoid storming Azovstal probably reflects that they can’t afford to lose further manpower and need those units for the Donbas offensive. 7/
Even still, it’s unclear if the southern axis of the planned offensive will be more than a fixing action. The Southern Military District's forces have been mauled over 2 months of fighting. This means a larger operational envelopment is probably beyond their means to support. 8/
Russian forces in the southwest around Kherson city are struggling to consolidate a defensible perimeter west of the river. The units deployed there are relatively light, and under pressure. They could even be forced over time to retreat east across the Dnipro. 9/
Ukraine has been deploying reinforcements to Zaporizhia, Donbas & Kharkiv. Russia has made little effort to disrupt ground lines of communication into the Donbas. This means that a Russian success is at best contingent & UKR could be in position to launch counteroffensives. 10/
Expansion of support to include armor, IFVs, and artillery is going to allow Ukraine to replace losses and equip reserve brigades (esp artillery and ammunition which Ukraine needs). Hence the general trajectory of correlation of forces in this war is not in Russia’s favor. 11/
If the Russian military sends units in piecemeal, sticking to roads, with narrow advances – they will be defeated by UKR as they have in other battles. I’ve seen them make adjustments in some areas, but some of the problems are structural. 12/
Reticent to make any predictions on how the battle for the Donbas will go. These things are contingent, and it depends. The outcome can range from Russian forces making gains to suffering another significant defeat. 13/
Dvornikov's appointment changes little. There’s not much distinguishing him from other Russian generals. The more pertinent question is how/if the Russian military has reorganized command and control, air support, and logistics for this offensive. 14/
Donbas is a relatively urban region. Russian forces likely need Severodonetsk to control Luhansk and Slovyansk + Kramatorsk in order to claim they have captured Donetsk. These could end up prolonged and costly fights in urban terrain. 15/
I think it is fair to say that the decisive period of the war was the first three weeks (maybe even first 4 days). Whatever happens in this next phase, the Russian military is likely to exhaust its offensive potential in the near term. 16/
Does this presage a stalemate? Not necessarily. UKR has its own offensive options. Russia may next try to consolidate control over territory held and pressure UKR via blockade. Its too early to predict what the next phase might look like & it depends on what UKR chooses to do.
72margd
Don't read this, John5918, it will just depress you. I remember (WW2?) era towed artillery parked in green areas on Cdn army bases: kids climbed on them. Amazing to these untrained eyes how little overall design has changed, but tweaks seem to have made huge difference in range and accuracy. What depresses me is the newly graduated engineer who once worked IT for us, but whose ambition was to design rockets. This must be his handiwork--or someone like him. Oh well, hopefully will drive scoundrels from Ukrainians' homeland?
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 10:14 AM · Apr 22, 2022
retired General, frmer cdr US army in Europe
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507077215764481
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517507077215764481.html
How 'bout a 🧵on the artillery sent to Ukraine, as the narrative is bouncing between "this is pretty good," to "it's still not enough," to "NATO/US needs to do more!"
The devil is in the details.
(As a former tanker I'm not an expert on arty, but I've used it in combat) 1/10
1st, the towed artillery.
There are 2 types. I don't know how many of each are being sent but here are some details.
The older models are the "M198" (cannon-cockers say "M-one-niner-eight"). Produced in 1969, it's a good cannon.
Range 14-30 km, depending on the round. 2/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507079837212673/photo/1
The new models are the M777 ("M-triple 7" in cannon-cocker speak).
A great system.
Half the weight of the M198, due to titanium construction. Uses a digital fire-control system that provides navigation, pointing & self-location.
Fires 14-40 km, depending on round. 3/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507082806861829/photo/1
Both CAN fire rocket-assisted projectiles (RAP) to extend range & each CAN also fire precision munitions (that is, a round that will hit a designated target rather than just area explosions)
But the M777 fires the Excaliber GPS-guided munition out to 40 km. That's a big deal. 4/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507085528883200/photo/1
The number of total cannons in the combined package equates to about 5 US battalions worth of artillery, and the 144+K rounds/projectiles is an awful lot.
Given the precision, and range, of these systems, IMO they will outgun the RUs in any artillery duel. 5/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507088305565698/photo/1
While self-propelled (those on tracks) artillery can "shoot & scoot" faster after firing their rounds, the digital towed systems allow it to be emplaced as fast & move out almost as quickly as the tracked artillery.
And, the Russians ain't that well-trained in counter-fire. 6/
That brings us to...the radars.
Part of the package also included "artillery finding" radars (it's called the Q36).
Those radars "find" an enemy when they fire a round.
Digital systems then help transfer the location to the US guns to fire back. VERY quickly. "Counterfire." 7/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507092621496320/photo/1
The package also includes many "small unmanned aerial systems (UAS)," or drones.
Those provide intel on locations, calculate grids & can pass location to a gun firing Excaliber BEFORE the RU even shoot.
For the tactical fight, small drones are MUCH better than Predators. 8/
I won't get into the Switchblade or "Ghost drones" recently developed (mostly for US special operators), but along with the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 all will be effective in both killing RU armored vehicles & increasing RU troops feeling of helplessness on the battlefield. 9/
UA has been effective in establishing kill zones & counterattacking thus far, & they're doing the same in the East.
Key to this phase of the fight for UK: Keep logistics trail light, incorporate simple & new equipment, counter RU arty, move fast , use quick reaction forces.10/10
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 10:14 AM · Apr 22, 2022
retired General, frmer cdr US army in Europe
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507077215764481
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517507077215764481.html
How 'bout a 🧵on the artillery sent to Ukraine, as the narrative is bouncing between "this is pretty good," to "it's still not enough," to "NATO/US needs to do more!"
The devil is in the details.
(As a former tanker I'm not an expert on arty, but I've used it in combat) 1/10
1st, the towed artillery.
There are 2 types. I don't know how many of each are being sent but here are some details.
The older models are the "M198" (cannon-cockers say "M-one-niner-eight"). Produced in 1969, it's a good cannon.
Range 14-30 km, depending on the round. 2/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507079837212673/photo/1
The new models are the M777 ("M-triple 7" in cannon-cocker speak).
A great system.
Half the weight of the M198, due to titanium construction. Uses a digital fire-control system that provides navigation, pointing & self-location.
Fires 14-40 km, depending on round. 3/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507082806861829/photo/1
Both CAN fire rocket-assisted projectiles (RAP) to extend range & each CAN also fire precision munitions (that is, a round that will hit a designated target rather than just area explosions)
But the M777 fires the Excaliber GPS-guided munition out to 40 km. That's a big deal. 4/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507085528883200/photo/1
The number of total cannons in the combined package equates to about 5 US battalions worth of artillery, and the 144+K rounds/projectiles is an awful lot.
Given the precision, and range, of these systems, IMO they will outgun the RUs in any artillery duel. 5/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507088305565698/photo/1
While self-propelled (those on tracks) artillery can "shoot & scoot" faster after firing their rounds, the digital towed systems allow it to be emplaced as fast & move out almost as quickly as the tracked artillery.
And, the Russians ain't that well-trained in counter-fire. 6/
That brings us to...the radars.
Part of the package also included "artillery finding" radars (it's called the Q36).
Those radars "find" an enemy when they fire a round.
Digital systems then help transfer the location to the US guns to fire back. VERY quickly. "Counterfire." 7/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507092621496320/photo/1
The package also includes many "small unmanned aerial systems (UAS)," or drones.
Those provide intel on locations, calculate grids & can pass location to a gun firing Excaliber BEFORE the RU even shoot.
For the tactical fight, small drones are MUCH better than Predators. 8/
I won't get into the Switchblade or "Ghost drones" recently developed (mostly for US special operators), but along with the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 all will be effective in both killing RU armored vehicles & increasing RU troops feeling of helplessness on the battlefield. 9/
UA has been effective in establishing kill zones & counterattacking thus far, & they're doing the same in the East.
Key to this phase of the fight for UK: Keep logistics trail light, incorporate simple & new equipment, counter RU arty, move fast , use quick reaction forces.10/10
73margd
Ukraine Army destroys enemy command operations center, eliminates two Russian generals
23.04.2022 18:48
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed a command operations center of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces, eliminating two enemy generals.
The relevant statement was made by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry on Facebook, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
“On April 22, 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine landed a devastating blow on the forward command operations center of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Russian occupation forces, which, in defiance of combat instructions and common sense, was located a short distance from the combat line in Kherson Region,” the report states.
As a result, the command operations center was destroyed; two Russian generals were eliminated; one more enemy general was seriously injured and evacuated in critical condition. The personal data are yet to be reported...
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3465606-ukraine-army-destroys-enemy-command...
----------------------------------------------------------
Ukrainian Military Attacked Army-Level (RU) Command Post In Kherson Region - Arestovych
Даша Зубкова | 23 April 2022
...Oleksii Arestovych, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President, said..."There were about 50 senior Russian officers, their fate is unknown" ...
https://ukranews.com/en/news/852019-ukrainian-military-attacked-army-level-comma...
23.04.2022 18:48
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed a command operations center of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces, eliminating two enemy generals.
The relevant statement was made by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry on Facebook, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
“On April 22, 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine landed a devastating blow on the forward command operations center of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Russian occupation forces, which, in defiance of combat instructions and common sense, was located a short distance from the combat line in Kherson Region,” the report states.
As a result, the command operations center was destroyed; two Russian generals were eliminated; one more enemy general was seriously injured and evacuated in critical condition. The personal data are yet to be reported...
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3465606-ukraine-army-destroys-enemy-command...
----------------------------------------------------------
Ukrainian Military Attacked Army-Level (RU) Command Post In Kherson Region - Arestovych
Даша Зубкова | 23 April 2022
...Oleksii Arestovych, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President, said..."There were about 50 senior Russian officers, their fate is unknown" ...
https://ukranews.com/en/news/852019-ukrainian-military-attacked-army-level-comma...
74John5918
David Nott: The war surgeon helping doctors save lives in Ukraine (BBC)
On Thursday, trauma surgeon David Nott was in London - a long way from Ukraine. But that didn't stop him from helping to save the leg of a man who'd been caught by a blast in the war-ravaged country. Oleksandr, the doctor who actually carried out the operation, had never performed the tricky procedure before. But a little over a week previously he had watched Prof Nott demonstrate how it was done inside a Ukrainian hospital. And so Oleksandr took a photo of the wound with his smartphone and sent it to Prof Nott, who had recently flown back to the UK. The experienced British war surgeon confirmed the operation was necessary. He'd also previously given Oleksandr a video talking him through how it was done. "I was quite nervous and it was slowly, step-by-step surgery, but it went well thanks to David Nott," Oleksandr says...
75lriley
I wonder what Putin’s endgame for Ukraine really is now. It seems as if there is nothing but this petulant kind of revenge. Of the territory the Russians have captured what are they really ruling over after they’ve reduced so much of it to rubble? Who is going to live in Mariupol? for instance. Who is going to rebuild? Not only do we have the incompetency of their military and their inability to maintain their war machine or properly supply their own troops but Russia hardly has two nickels to rub together now. With the sanctions it’s only going to get worse for their economy. They’re not going to rebuild what they’ve destroyed and they’re not likely going to be able to keep the water or electricity running or feed whatever population that still remains.
76prosfilaes
>32 davidgn: There is a school of thought that believes the dismemberment and disintegration of Russia is what the US and NATO have been plotting to achieve all along (not without reason -- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32487081 // https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/08/usa.russia ), and nothing that's happening now will be allaying those fears.
There's a school of thought that believes the dismemberment of Germany is what the US and Soviet Union wanted all along, and nothing that was happening in 1944 was allaying those fears.
The US and NATO were mostly fine with post-Soviet Russia, until it invaded Georgia and Ukraine, and even then, Germany, a NATO nation, was building the Nord Stream 2 with Russia. NATO doesn't seem to have been actively doing anything pre-2022.
This only changed when Russia decided to fully conquer Ukraine. Eastern Europe spent 40 recent, unhappy years under Russian control, and in several cases decades or centuries under Russian control before that. They invaded an Eastern European nation and threatened an EU nation (Finland); it takes a special type of paranoia and narcissism to treat the reaction as indication that everyone has been plotting against them all along.
There's a school of thought that believes the dismemberment of Germany is what the US and Soviet Union wanted all along, and nothing that was happening in 1944 was allaying those fears.
The US and NATO were mostly fine with post-Soviet Russia, until it invaded Georgia and Ukraine, and even then, Germany, a NATO nation, was building the Nord Stream 2 with Russia. NATO doesn't seem to have been actively doing anything pre-2022.
This only changed when Russia decided to fully conquer Ukraine. Eastern Europe spent 40 recent, unhappy years under Russian control, and in several cases decades or centuries under Russian control before that. They invaded an Eastern European nation and threatened an EU nation (Finland); it takes a special type of paranoia and narcissism to treat the reaction as indication that everyone has been plotting against them all along.
77John5918
>75 lriley: It seems as if there is nothing but this petulant kind of revenge.
Not uncommon in militaristic states. The USA destroyed two countries in revenge for the attack by a small number of extremists on New York and Washington DC. "They’ve reduced so much of it to rubble" and "They’re not going to rebuild what they’ve destroyed and they’re not likely going to be able to keep the water or electricity running or feed whatever population that still remains" might well describe the USA's actions then.
Not uncommon in militaristic states. The USA destroyed two countries in revenge for the attack by a small number of extremists on New York and Washington DC. "They’ve reduced so much of it to rubble" and "They’re not going to rebuild what they’ve destroyed and they’re not likely going to be able to keep the water or electricity running or feed whatever population that still remains" might well describe the USA's actions then.
78John5918
An Agenda for the UN Secretary-General’s Trip to Russia and Ukraine (International Crisis Group)
UN Secretary-General António Guterres is travelling to Moscow and Kyiv. He will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on 26 April, and then with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the 28th. The Secretary-General’s visit will take place against the backdrop of the hostilities in eastern and southern Ukraine. He is in no position to act as a peacemaker in the short term, as both sides still believe that they can gain the upper hand on the battlefield and he has no new incentives to offer that would be sufficient to persuade either party to change course. Nonetheless, Guterres can use this opportunity to press for relief for Ukrainian civilians – especially those trapped in the devastated city of Mariupol – and give the two presidents some ideas as to how the UN could facilitate and support credible peace initiatives in the future... Given his limited diplomatic options, the Secretary-General has tried to address the war’s consequences inside and outside Ukraine from other angles. He has focused on humanitarian operations inside the country – where the UN has over 1,000 staff – and on drawing attention to the war’s impact on global food, energy and commodity prices. The UN may yet play a crucial role in coordinating efforts to mitigate the war’s international economic fallout. But given the central place of peace and security in the organisation’s charter, it is hard to see the Secretary-General giving up on diplomacy while the war rages. In both Moscow and Kyiv, Guterres is likely to find the atmosphere chilly at best...
79Skylight2512 
Dieser Benutzer wurde wegen Spammens entfernt.
80margd
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 10:58 AM · Apr 24, 2022:
American racecar driver - Japanese SUPER GT.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518242872377585664
🧵 RELIGION: Here's more of Kremlin's image altering. Kiril, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, is a key member of Putin's Mafia and is a billionaire himself. Kremlin photoshopped this photo to remove his ~$30,000 wristwatch but forgot to remove the watch reflection.
Photos ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518242872377585664/photo/1 )
Real name of "Kirill" is Vladimir Mikhailovich Gundyayev and he was a KGB agent. He is from St. Petersburg, just like Putin:
Kirill, the Patriarch in league with Putin
Damian Thompson | From magazine issue: 26 March 2022
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/kirill-the-patriarch-in-league-with-putin/am...
You can read the Investigative paper by historian Felix Corley proving "Patriarch" Kirill's past as a KGB officer:
The Mikhailov Files: Patriarch Kirill and the KGB
Felix Corley
https://www.academia.edu/37152767/The_Mikhailov_Files_Patriarch_Kirill_and_the_K...
Back in 2012, BBC reported on the $30,000 Breguet watch worn by this KGB mafiosi who likes to wear a holy man costume: 🤡
Russia's Patriarch Kirill in furore over luxury watch
5 April 2012
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17622820
How did KGB mafiosi "Patriarch Kirill" become a billionaire using the Russian Orthodox Church? Of course it started back in the 90s. Import of 10,000 TONS of contraband cigarettes, accounting for 10% of national consumption, and much, much more.
East-West Church & Ministry Report
Covering the Former Soviet Union and East Central Europe
Orthodoxy, Oil, Tobacco, and Wine: Do They Mix?
Andrei Zolotov | Vol. 5, No. 1, Winter 1997,
The Russian Orthodox Church has suffered a major blow to its public image because of disclosures, made in a series of articles IN THE RUSSIAN PRESS (emphasis margd's), about the involvement of the church's hierarchy in lucrative business operations, including the import of tobacco and alcohol...
https://www.eastwestreport.org/articles/ew05108.htm
___________________________________________
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 1:54 PM · Apr 24, 2022
News and views from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1518287243999420420
Russian Orthodox Church plays key part in deportation & resettlement of Ukrainians in Russia - http://Slidstvo.info (margd: Ukr language)
Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations transfers all info on deportees to ROC, which resettles them in churches & monasteries
https://slidstvo.info/warnews/deportuj-blyzhnogo-svogo-yak-rosijska-pravoslavna-... (margd: Ukr language)
photo ( https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1518287243999420420/photo/1 )
In 2 months of war, Russia deported 600k Ukrainians, incl 117k children, chiefly from E regions, esp Mariupol.
The mass deportation & resettlement of Ukrainians to Russia shows signs of genocide, Ukraine has launched criminal proceedings against such actions of the occupiers
_____________________________________________
Amid the ruins of Bucha and Chernihiv, an Easter celebration
Isabelle Khurshudyan, Robert Klemko, and Kostiantyn Khudov | 24 April 2022
This Orthodox Easter — typically a colorful occasion with frosted cakes and painted eggs — was a somber but defiant one in Ukraine.
It marked the 60th day of a bloody war. A day usually reserved for celebration was marked with anger and loss.
...Metropolitan Epiphanius, the leader of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, said, 'Despite the sanctity of Holy Week and the Resurrection of Christ ... , Russian troops not only did not stop their crimes, but they, as if inspired by Satan himself, multiplied bloodshed...
https://washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/24/ukraine-chernihiv-bucha-orthodox-eas...
American racecar driver - Japanese SUPER GT.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518242872377585664
🧵 RELIGION: Here's more of Kremlin's image altering. Kiril, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, is a key member of Putin's Mafia and is a billionaire himself. Kremlin photoshopped this photo to remove his ~$30,000 wristwatch but forgot to remove the watch reflection.
Photos ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518242872377585664/photo/1 )
Real name of "Kirill" is Vladimir Mikhailovich Gundyayev and he was a KGB agent. He is from St. Petersburg, just like Putin:
Kirill, the Patriarch in league with Putin
Damian Thompson | From magazine issue: 26 March 2022
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/kirill-the-patriarch-in-league-with-putin/am...
You can read the Investigative paper by historian Felix Corley proving "Patriarch" Kirill's past as a KGB officer:
The Mikhailov Files: Patriarch Kirill and the KGB
Felix Corley
https://www.academia.edu/37152767/The_Mikhailov_Files_Patriarch_Kirill_and_the_K...
Back in 2012, BBC reported on the $30,000 Breguet watch worn by this KGB mafiosi who likes to wear a holy man costume: 🤡
Russia's Patriarch Kirill in furore over luxury watch
5 April 2012
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17622820
How did KGB mafiosi "Patriarch Kirill" become a billionaire using the Russian Orthodox Church? Of course it started back in the 90s. Import of 10,000 TONS of contraband cigarettes, accounting for 10% of national consumption, and much, much more.
East-West Church & Ministry Report
Covering the Former Soviet Union and East Central Europe
Orthodoxy, Oil, Tobacco, and Wine: Do They Mix?
Andrei Zolotov | Vol. 5, No. 1, Winter 1997,
The Russian Orthodox Church has suffered a major blow to its public image because of disclosures, made in a series of articles IN THE RUSSIAN PRESS (emphasis margd's), about the involvement of the church's hierarchy in lucrative business operations, including the import of tobacco and alcohol...
https://www.eastwestreport.org/articles/ew05108.htm
___________________________________________
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 1:54 PM · Apr 24, 2022
News and views from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1518287243999420420
Russian Orthodox Church plays key part in deportation & resettlement of Ukrainians in Russia - http://Slidstvo.info (margd: Ukr language)
Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations transfers all info on deportees to ROC, which resettles them in churches & monasteries
https://slidstvo.info/warnews/deportuj-blyzhnogo-svogo-yak-rosijska-pravoslavna-... (margd: Ukr language)
photo ( https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1518287243999420420/photo/1 )
In 2 months of war, Russia deported 600k Ukrainians, incl 117k children, chiefly from E regions, esp Mariupol.
The mass deportation & resettlement of Ukrainians to Russia shows signs of genocide, Ukraine has launched criminal proceedings against such actions of the occupiers
_____________________________________________
Amid the ruins of Bucha and Chernihiv, an Easter celebration
Isabelle Khurshudyan, Robert Klemko, and Kostiantyn Khudov | 24 April 2022
This Orthodox Easter — typically a colorful occasion with frosted cakes and painted eggs — was a somber but defiant one in Ukraine.
It marked the 60th day of a bloody war. A day usually reserved for celebration was marked with anger and loss.
...Metropolitan Epiphanius, the leader of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, said, 'Despite the sanctity of Holy Week and the Resurrection of Christ ... , Russian troops not only did not stop their crimes, but they, as if inspired by Satan himself, multiplied bloodshed...
https://washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/24/ukraine-chernihiv-bucha-orthodox-eas...
81margd
Newsfeed Ukraine 🇺🇦 @NewsfeedUkraine | 12:44 AM · Apr 25, 2022:
Offering an overview of news on Ukraine.
The city of #Bryansk, Russia tonight. Oil depot(s) reportedly on fire. Via @visegrad24
0:08 ( https://twitter.com/NewsfeedUkraine/status/1518450912766922752 )
From Woofers
------------------------------------------------------
Bryansk Fire Videos Show Explosions, Massive Inferno at Russian Oil Depot
Giulia Carbonaro | 4/25/22
...a second unconfirmed fire broke out in the Russian city in addition to one reported by Russian authorities on Monday.
In several clips shared by Twitter users, what appears to be a second blaze can be seen burning bright in the dark Bryansk sky in the early hours of April 25 next to another, smaller fire, suggesting that two locations caught fire during the night in the Russian city, which lies about 95 miles from the Ukraine border.
...The Druzhba fuel depot on fire belongs to Russian state-controlled oil pipeline company Transneft. The depot's location is strategic for the conflict in Ukraine. Bryansk, a city of 400,000 people and the administrative center of Bryansk Oblast, lies 93 miles from Ukraine and serves as a logistics base for Russian troops fighting in the neighboring country. The city is some 240 miles from Moscow.
According to TASS, the first report of a fire was made at 2 a.m. Moscow time. The first responders had left for the scene when the government's press office talked to the Russian news agency...
https://twitter.com/NewsfeedUkraine/status/1518450912766922752
Offering an overview of news on Ukraine.
The city of #Bryansk, Russia tonight. Oil depot(s) reportedly on fire. Via @visegrad24
0:08 ( https://twitter.com/NewsfeedUkraine/status/1518450912766922752 )
From Woofers
------------------------------------------------------
Bryansk Fire Videos Show Explosions, Massive Inferno at Russian Oil Depot
Giulia Carbonaro | 4/25/22
...a second unconfirmed fire broke out in the Russian city in addition to one reported by Russian authorities on Monday.
In several clips shared by Twitter users, what appears to be a second blaze can be seen burning bright in the dark Bryansk sky in the early hours of April 25 next to another, smaller fire, suggesting that two locations caught fire during the night in the Russian city, which lies about 95 miles from the Ukraine border.
...The Druzhba fuel depot on fire belongs to Russian state-controlled oil pipeline company Transneft. The depot's location is strategic for the conflict in Ukraine. Bryansk, a city of 400,000 people and the administrative center of Bryansk Oblast, lies 93 miles from Ukraine and serves as a logistics base for Russian troops fighting in the neighboring country. The city is some 240 miles from Moscow.
According to TASS, the first report of a fire was made at 2 a.m. Moscow time. The first responders had left for the scene when the government's press office talked to the Russian news agency...
https://twitter.com/NewsfeedUkraine/status/1518450912766922752
82lriley
>77 John5918: Absolutely agree with you that the United States isn’t the paragon of virtue it would like others to believe and in Iraq’s case there was no linkage to 9-11.
Part of the point I made above though is that What Russia is destroying (and it’s not just a few cities—they have pretty much targeted every major population center) it’s incapable economically of rebuilding. During the Iraq occupation the United States threw hundreds of billions into Iraq even if most of that ended up in the pockets of the corrupted. Remember L. Paul Bremer? The capability was there though. What it comes down to is what is the plan going forward when the shooting war peters out. I don’t think the Russians have one.
Part of the point I made above though is that What Russia is destroying (and it’s not just a few cities—they have pretty much targeted every major population center) it’s incapable economically of rebuilding. During the Iraq occupation the United States threw hundreds of billions into Iraq even if most of that ended up in the pockets of the corrupted. Remember L. Paul Bremer? The capability was there though. What it comes down to is what is the plan going forward when the shooting war peters out. I don’t think the Russians have one.
84margd
Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova | 8:24 PM · Apr 23, 2022:
Journalist from Minsk, Belarus. Non-resident fellow @AtlanticCouncil. Media trainer. Formerly @RFERL
, @Belsat_TV. 2019 @worldpressinst fellow.
#Ukraine Journalist Valeria Glodan and her 3-month-old daughter died in Odesa after Russians attacked the city.* Valeria’s mother also died.
This is so painful. And what, Putin will go to a church tomorrow to celebrate Easter?
Photo ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1518022964658200576/photo/1 )
* https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/apr/23/footage-shows-building-in-od...
--------------------------------------------------------------
Visegrád 24@visegrad24 | 9:24 AM · Apr 24, 2022:
First clear video of the Russian cruise missile strikes on residential areas in Odesa that killed 3-month-old Kira, her mother Valeria and her grandmother.
There must be a Nuremberg 2 for Putin and all other Russian war criminals.
0:19 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1518219351622664192 )
____________________________________________
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 2:48 AM · Apr 24, 2022:
🧵 RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA FAKE: Easter on Russian State TV. Putin was too much of a coward to be present in the church during the actual event. Pre-recorded footage of him added in, and quite poorly. He is missing next to the painting of a crown on a red table on the wall.
1:01 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518119766547857408 )
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 2:48 AM · Apr 24, 2022
This pathetic dictator doesn't even have a body-double for public events....
Photos
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518119774793859074/photo/1
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518119774793859074/photo/2
Someone captured Putin on video during the pre-recording of him in an emptied church protected by his body guards. This footage was then broadcast as "live" on Russian state propaganda TV, sprinkled into the actual footage of Easter services.
0:19 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518124361986699270 )
It's possible the inserted pre-recorded video was from last year - 2021. I'm sure the Twitter sleuths can get to the bottom of it by analyzing last year's videos and photos. See photo from 2021 Easter. Color of his suit, condition of his face, etc. 2021:
https://www.m24.ru/news/vlast/02052021/163751
Journalist from Minsk, Belarus. Non-resident fellow @AtlanticCouncil. Media trainer. Formerly @RFERL
, @Belsat_TV. 2019 @worldpressinst fellow.
#Ukraine Journalist Valeria Glodan and her 3-month-old daughter died in Odesa after Russians attacked the city.* Valeria’s mother also died.
This is so painful. And what, Putin will go to a church tomorrow to celebrate Easter?
Photo ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1518022964658200576/photo/1 )
* https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/apr/23/footage-shows-building-in-od...
--------------------------------------------------------------
Visegrád 24@visegrad24 | 9:24 AM · Apr 24, 2022:
First clear video of the Russian cruise missile strikes on residential areas in Odesa that killed 3-month-old Kira, her mother Valeria and her grandmother.
There must be a Nuremberg 2 for Putin and all other Russian war criminals.
0:19 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1518219351622664192 )
____________________________________________
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 2:48 AM · Apr 24, 2022:
🧵 RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA FAKE: Easter on Russian State TV. Putin was too much of a coward to be present in the church during the actual event. Pre-recorded footage of him added in, and quite poorly. He is missing next to the painting of a crown on a red table on the wall.
1:01 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518119766547857408 )
Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 2:48 AM · Apr 24, 2022
This pathetic dictator doesn't even have a body-double for public events....
Photos
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518119774793859074/photo/1
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518119774793859074/photo/2
Someone captured Putin on video during the pre-recording of him in an emptied church protected by his body guards. This footage was then broadcast as "live" on Russian state propaganda TV, sprinkled into the actual footage of Easter services.
0:19 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1518124361986699270 )
It's possible the inserted pre-recorded video was from last year - 2021. I'm sure the Twitter sleuths can get to the bottom of it by analyzing last year's videos and photos. See photo from 2021 Easter. Color of his suit, condition of his face, etc. 2021:
https://www.m24.ru/news/vlast/02052021/163751
85margd
Timothy Phillips (Oxford U) @TSJPhillips | 3:02 PM · Apr 21, 2022:
Putin was not looking at all well today. People have particularly noted his hunched position and the fact he never let go of the table during the entire 12-minute meeting with (minister of defense) Shoigu.
Source: SvobodaRadio
0:47 ( https://twitter.com/TSJPhillips/status/1517217288814055425 )
Putin was not looking at all well today. People have particularly noted his hunched position and the fact he never let go of the table during the entire 12-minute meeting with (minister of defense) Shoigu.
Source: SvobodaRadio
0:47 ( https://twitter.com/TSJPhillips/status/1517217288814055425 )
86davidgn
>76 prosfilaes: Unfortunately, it doesn't matter what you or I believe. It matters what the people in the Kremlin believe. And in many ways, they seem themselves as less acting than reacting. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-is-trying-to-dismember-russia-says-putin-advise...
Perhaps they are working to fulfill their own prophecies. Still, that doesn't make the situation any less dangerous.
Perhaps they are working to fulfill their own prophecies. Still, that doesn't make the situation any less dangerous.
87davidgn
>86 davidgn: This is excellent. I recommend watching the whole thing.
The Ukraine War From Russia's Perspective
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkrLUFAcjH0
I have a quibble with the notion that the Russians intended to take the entirety of Ukraine in terms of military occupation (via taking Kyiv, decapitation, and regime change, perhaps, yes), and I fundamentally disagree on some other points, but it's a good start to understanding a different system of thinking.
This likewise:
Meet the Russian Siloviki - Putin's inner circle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO88kFvlE2k
And if anyone thinks it's offensive to attempt to look at things through the eyes of the adversary, I'm afraid they've quite missed the point of the exercise.
The Ukraine War From Russia's Perspective
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkrLUFAcjH0
I have a quibble with the notion that the Russians intended to take the entirety of Ukraine in terms of military occupation (via taking Kyiv, decapitation, and regime change, perhaps, yes), and I fundamentally disagree on some other points, but it's a good start to understanding a different system of thinking.
This likewise:
Meet the Russian Siloviki - Putin's inner circle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO88kFvlE2k
And if anyone thinks it's offensive to attempt to look at things through the eyes of the adversary, I'm afraid they've quite missed the point of the exercise.
88margd
Loitering Munitions in Ukraine and Beyond
Brennan Deveraux | April 22, 2022
...Loitering munitions are one-time-use weapons designed to find a target and crash into it, giving it its “kamikaze” nickname. Once airborne, loitering munitions can hunt for a target by a human-driven process from a control station, autonomous flight with authority to strike designated targets, or a combination of these methods. Although there are options for recovering some models that do not engage a target, the munition is generally assumed expended once launched. This is essential to understanding their potential role in the Ukraine conflict, as the loitering munitions the United States is providing are likely to be expended quickly.
Soldiers are not reliant on airfields or large open areas to employ these weapons. Thus, like the handheld Javelin anti-armor systems having great success in Ukraine, the man-portable nature of most loitering munitions allows small units to discreetly deploy the weapon across the battlefield. The munition’s launch style varies by type, including a mounted or ground-based catapult system, a modified mortar tube, and a vertical multi-rotor lift. Once airborne, the system is designed to “loiter,” thus the name, for an extended time. The loiter time varies between models. Those being used in Ukraine can stay airborne from 30 to 60 minutes, while some Israeli systems can loiter for nine hours.
What the United States Is Sending...Switchblade (300 model weighs 5.5 pounds, range of only 10 kilometers and 15 minutes of flight time, and it cannot penetrate armor; 600 model weighs 50 pounds, 40-kilometer range and a loiter time of over 40 minutes. And it can kill tanks.)...Phoenix Ghost ...
Ukrainian Organic Loitering Munitions...RAM II...ST-35 Silent Thunder...
Russian Loitering Munitions...the Lancet...the KYB...
The Changing Character of War
First, because of the limited range and capability of U.S.-made systems, the impact of loitering munitions will be on a smaller and more tactical scale than the Israeli systems that dominated the Armenian military in 2020. ...
Second, while limited in quantity, anti-armor capable loitering munitions can replicate Ukraine’s success with the Javelin anti-armor launcher and similar weapons...
Third, if a small, dismounted team can replicate the role of artillery, this leaves enemy forces that can operate in more protected or safer areas of the battlefield. These long-range strikes can originate from anywhere and disrupt operations across an entire theater by finding and destroying things like fuel dumps, resupply convoys, and headquarters...
Finally, suppose these simple and relatively inexpensive systems can penetrate the world’s most advanced air-defense systems. In that case, this challenges the notion of the protective anti-access bubble that Russia and China have made foundational to their modernization efforts...
Conclusion...
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/loitering-munitions-in-ukraine-and-beyond/
89margd
The Last Thing: The best of humanity (5:16)
Anchor Stephanie Ruhle shares her week-long experience volunteering and working with refugees at the Poland-Ukraine border.April 26, 2022
https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/the-last-thing-the-best-of-humanity-138620...
Anchor Stephanie Ruhle shares her week-long experience volunteering and working with refugees at the Poland-Ukraine border.April 26, 2022
https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/the-last-thing-the-best-of-humanity-138620...
90margd
Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer 🇺🇦🇨🇦✊🏻 @CanadianUkrain1 | 1:44 AM · Apr 23, 2022
Fighting the Russians in Kherson region. Our crew doesn't accept donations, but you can donate to help the city of Mykolaiv here: https://kimmerians.org.ua
A new video recorded by the Defenders of #Mariupol, showing the many women and children taking shelter in the bunkers underneath #Azovstal. I can't translate it all, so just watch it. The emotions are clear even without understanding the language.
Glory to #Ukraine ✊🏻🇺🇦
10:00 ( https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1517741197611220992 )
_________________________________________
With English subtitles:
1/5 2:15 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517792296258912256 )
2/5 2:11 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517797957546004480 )
3/5 2:13 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517810478046715904 )
4/5 2:09 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517810478046715904 )
5/5 1:27 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517827761108402176 )
Fighting the Russians in Kherson region. Our crew doesn't accept donations, but you can donate to help the city of Mykolaiv here: https://kimmerians.org.ua
A new video recorded by the Defenders of #Mariupol, showing the many women and children taking shelter in the bunkers underneath #Azovstal. I can't translate it all, so just watch it. The emotions are clear even without understanding the language.
Glory to #Ukraine ✊🏻🇺🇦
10:00 ( https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1517741197611220992 )
_________________________________________
With English subtitles:
1/5 2:15 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517792296258912256 )
2/5 2:11 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517797957546004480 )
3/5 2:13 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517810478046715904 )
4/5 2:09 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517810478046715904 )
5/5 1:27 ( https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1517827761108402176 )
91margd
In Russia, apparently, one can be detained for signs that are blank, say "two words", or are invisible...
Татия 👩🦰☕️🥨 @taty40050803 | 11:30 AM · Apr 22, 2022
Из протокола: "..задержанные держали в руках невидимые плакаты с антиправительственными надписями".
Translated from Russian by google:
From the protocol: ".. the detainees were holding invisible posters with anti-government inscriptions in their hands."
Photo ( https://twitter.com/taty40050803/status/1517526242857209856/photo/1 )
Татия 👩🦰☕️🥨 @taty40050803 | 11:30 AM · Apr 22, 2022
Из протокола: "..задержанные держали в руках невидимые плакаты с антиправительственными надписями".
Translated from Russian by google:
From the protocol: ".. the detainees were holding invisible posters with anti-government inscriptions in their hands."
Photo ( https://twitter.com/taty40050803/status/1517526242857209856/photo/1 )
92margd
May 9...Will it be D-Day for Ukrainian soldiers and civilians?
Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova | 10:29 AM · Apr 20, 2022:
Russians are really planning to organize a Victory Day parade among ashes and ruins in Mariupol, #Ukraine. The Russian-controlled authorities of the destroyed key port city said that on May 9, the "Immortal Regiment" rally will be held there.
Photo-Mariupol street ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1516786064257605653/photo/1 )
* Critics, which even include Igor Dmitriev (the founder of the Immortal Regiment), have primarily alleged that the procession has turned into an attempt by the (Russian) government to promote its own domestic and foreign policies, rather than to honor the memories of the millions who perished in the war (WW2). (Wikipedia)
Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova | 10:29 AM · Apr 20, 2022:
Russians are really planning to organize a Victory Day parade among ashes and ruins in Mariupol, #Ukraine. The Russian-controlled authorities of the destroyed key port city said that on May 9, the "Immortal Regiment" rally will be held there.
Photo-Mariupol street ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1516786064257605653/photo/1 )
* Critics, which even include Igor Dmitriev (the founder of the Immortal Regiment), have primarily alleged that the procession has turned into an attempt by the (Russian) government to promote its own domestic and foreign policies, rather than to honor the memories of the millions who perished in the war (WW2). (Wikipedia)
93margd
Tim Mak @timkmak | 9:16 AM · Apr 26, 2022:
NPR Investigative Correspondent, in Ukraine. Author of 'MISFIRE: Inside the Downfall of the NRA' Covering politics/natsec/tech Fmr Army medic
Good morning to readers; hello from Ukraine.
Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
All eyes on Transnistria, the Ukraine-adjacent breakaway region of Moldova controlled by pro-Russian leaders. It also hosts Russian troops.
Explosions were observed there. Here's why that matters:
Explosions struck building housing region's security services, FT reports; Al Jazeera also reports radio masts were hit by two explosions.
Transnistria region is home to ~1,500 Russian and 8,500 Transnistrian troops, reports colleague Frank Langfitt: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/15/1091998660/ukraine-russia-war-moldova-security-tr...
A look at this map, by NPR's @mulletmapping, shows you this region would be relevant to the war in Ukraine:
-Not far from the Black Sea port of Odesa.
-Shares a 250 mile border with Ukraine
-Fighting could also imperil the north-south route from Kyiv to Odesa.
Map ( https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1518942870073446401/photo/1 )
The incidents ratcheted up tensions immediately.
Following the explosions, the president of Moldova convened the country's Supreme Security council.
The breakway region's pro-Russian leaders also said they would "protect the interests" of the region:
Will Vernon @BBCWillVernon | 5:30 AM · Apr 26, 2022:
Moldovan Pres Sandu is chairing a Security Council meeting in 30mins, after which she will brief the media. Today, the breakaway Moldovan Transnistria “authorities” announced they will shortly “take a decision to protect the interests of their republic,” which is allied to Russia
Already, Moldova's former defense minister is saying attacks bear "signature" of Russian military intelligence
..."building more and more facts that will give them the 'right' — they'll say the 'right' — to intervene in the Transnistria region" he said
https://www.businessinsider.com/transnitria-explosions-have-signature-of-russia-...
... https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1518942184740995073
NPR Investigative Correspondent, in Ukraine. Author of 'MISFIRE: Inside the Downfall of the NRA' Covering politics/natsec/tech Fmr Army medic
Good morning to readers; hello from Ukraine.
Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
All eyes on Transnistria, the Ukraine-adjacent breakaway region of Moldova controlled by pro-Russian leaders. It also hosts Russian troops.
Explosions were observed there. Here's why that matters:
Explosions struck building housing region's security services, FT reports; Al Jazeera also reports radio masts were hit by two explosions.
Transnistria region is home to ~1,500 Russian and 8,500 Transnistrian troops, reports colleague Frank Langfitt: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/15/1091998660/ukraine-russia-war-moldova-security-tr...
A look at this map, by NPR's @mulletmapping, shows you this region would be relevant to the war in Ukraine:
-Not far from the Black Sea port of Odesa.
-Shares a 250 mile border with Ukraine
-Fighting could also imperil the north-south route from Kyiv to Odesa.
Map ( https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1518942870073446401/photo/1 )
The incidents ratcheted up tensions immediately.
Following the explosions, the president of Moldova convened the country's Supreme Security council.
The breakway region's pro-Russian leaders also said they would "protect the interests" of the region:
Will Vernon @BBCWillVernon | 5:30 AM · Apr 26, 2022:
Moldovan Pres Sandu is chairing a Security Council meeting in 30mins, after which she will brief the media. Today, the breakaway Moldovan Transnistria “authorities” announced they will shortly “take a decision to protect the interests of their republic,” which is allied to Russia
Already, Moldova's former defense minister is saying attacks bear "signature" of Russian military intelligence
..."building more and more facts that will give them the 'right' — they'll say the 'right' — to intervene in the Transnistria region" he said
https://www.businessinsider.com/transnitria-explosions-have-signature-of-russia-...
... https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1518942184740995073
94margd
Rachel Maddow MSNBC @maddow | 2:33 PM · Apr 26, 2022:
Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency at Chernobyl today. Thanks the heroic workers there who stayed on the job and prevented disaster while Russian troops occupied and looted.
Quote Tweet
Rafael MarianoGrossi (IAEA) @rafaelmgrossi · 5h
I was honoured to meet the #Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant staff and personally thank them for their resilience and courage during such extremely difficult times. They have my and @IAEAorg's full respect and admiration: they are heroes.
Photos
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1518970831849803785/photo/1
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1518970831849803785/photo/2
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1518970831849803785/photo/3
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1518970831849803785/photo/4
Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency at Chernobyl today. Thanks the heroic workers there who stayed on the job and prevented disaster while Russian troops occupied and looted.
Quote Tweet
Rafael MarianoGrossi (IAEA) @rafaelmgrossi · 5h
I was honoured to meet the #Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant staff and personally thank them for their resilience and courage during such extremely difficult times. They have my and @IAEAorg's full respect and admiration: they are heroes.
Photos
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1518970831849803785/photo/1
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1518970831849803785/photo/2
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1518970831849803785/photo/3
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1518970831849803785/photo/4
95John5918
Behind Austin's Call for a 'Weakened' Russia, Hints of a Shift (NYT)
The following is a letter to the NYT referring to the above unhelpful development. If you go to the link below you need to scroll down the page before you reach this letter.
An Unhelpful U.S. Message to Russia?
When Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III declared Monday at the end of a stealth visit to Ukraine that America’s goal is to see Russia so “weakened” that it would no longer have the power to invade a neighboring state, he was acknowledging a transformation of the conflict, from a battle over control of Ukraine to one that pits Washington more directly against Moscow...
The following is a letter to the NYT referring to the above unhelpful development. If you go to the link below you need to scroll down the page before you reach this letter.
An Unhelpful U.S. Message to Russia?
Re “U.S. Vows to Dull Russia’s Capacity to Act Militarily” (front page, April 26):
However one might view the morality, let alone wisdom, of Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, it seems clear that one motivation was Russia’s fear — repeatedly expressed — that the United States and its NATO allies were steadily moving eastward, toward Russia’s borders.
It is difficult to understand how a public statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that the U.S. hopes that the war will weaken Russia’s military will allay any of those concerns, de-escalate the violence being inflicted on the Ukrainian people, or contribute to a resolution of the conflict.
96margd
Hardly a stealth visit (below). Wonder why Austin just didn't say he wanted Russia so weakened that it couldn't sustain attacks on UKRAINE? Same diff but didn't give Putin a particularly juicy talking point to use domestically.
Secretary of Defense Austin Remained in Nuclear Chain of Command During Kyiv Trip
Howard Altman, Tyler Rogoway | Apr 25, 2022
...The dangerous nature of the trip was highlighted by the bombardment of five railway stations in central and Western Ukraine that were hit by Russia within the span of an hour Monday morning, The Guardian reported.
The attacks came "just hours after" Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv. Austin and Blinken crossed into Poland shortly before the Russian missiles struck several railway lines, Politico reported.
...The New York Times described the voyage taken by Austin and Blinken as an 11-hour train ride from just inside Ukraine’s border with Poland to Kyiv.
...“In an apparently unscripted remark Saturday afternoon during a news conference in the Ukrainian capital, Mr. Zelensky announced that Mr. Blinken and Mr. Austin would be arriving in Kyiv the next day,” the New York Times reported. “Shortly afterward, a senior defense official emerged from Mr. Austin’s quarters in the C-17’s cargo hold and somewhat sheepishly informed the three reporters accompanying the defense secretary that President Zelensky had blown the operation’s cover and the future of the trip was uncertain.”...
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/secdef-austin-retained-position-in-nuclear...
Secretary of Defense Austin Remained in Nuclear Chain of Command During Kyiv Trip
Howard Altman, Tyler Rogoway | Apr 25, 2022
...The dangerous nature of the trip was highlighted by the bombardment of five railway stations in central and Western Ukraine that were hit by Russia within the span of an hour Monday morning, The Guardian reported.
The attacks came "just hours after" Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv. Austin and Blinken crossed into Poland shortly before the Russian missiles struck several railway lines, Politico reported.
...The New York Times described the voyage taken by Austin and Blinken as an 11-hour train ride from just inside Ukraine’s border with Poland to Kyiv.
...“In an apparently unscripted remark Saturday afternoon during a news conference in the Ukrainian capital, Mr. Zelensky announced that Mr. Blinken and Mr. Austin would be arriving in Kyiv the next day,” the New York Times reported. “Shortly afterward, a senior defense official emerged from Mr. Austin’s quarters in the C-17’s cargo hold and somewhat sheepishly informed the three reporters accompanying the defense secretary that President Zelensky had blown the operation’s cover and the future of the trip was uncertain.”...
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/secdef-austin-retained-position-in-nuclear...
97margd
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 10:34 PM · Apr 26, 2022
"According to preliminary data, an ammunition depot is on fire near the village of Staraya Nelidovka" - Governor of Russia's Belgorod Oblast Vyacheslav Gladkov
He says there were no casualties among the civilian population.
📷https://svtv.org/online/#7018
https://t.me/vvgladkov/327
Photos
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519142822007525378/photo/1
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519142822007525378/photo/2
----------------------------------------------------------
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 10:47 PM · Apr 26, 2022:
Staraya Nelidovka, 🇷🇺Belgorod Oblast, is located about 20 km from the Ukrainian border. The 🇺🇦city of Kharkiv, facing Belgorod across the border, has been under repeated Russian artillery and rocket attacks since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Map ( https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519146287379234816/photo/1 )
__________________________________________
ETA
Mystery fires at sensitive facilities compound Russia’s war challenge
Liz Sly | 27 April 2022
...An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declined to comment on whether Ukraine was responsible and said there could be many different reasons for the fires, including what he called “karma.”
“If you (Russians) decided to attack another country en masse, kill everyone there en masse, crush civilians with tanks en masse, and use warehouses in your regions to ensure the killings, then sooner or later the debts will have to be repaid,” Mykhailo Podolyak said in a Telegram post written in Russian. “And therefore the disarmament of the murderers’ Belgorod-Voronezh warehouses is an absolutely matter-of-course, natural process. Karma is a cruel thing.”...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/mystery-fires-sensitive-faciliti...
"According to preliminary data, an ammunition depot is on fire near the village of Staraya Nelidovka" - Governor of Russia's Belgorod Oblast Vyacheslav Gladkov
He says there were no casualties among the civilian population.
📷https://svtv.org/online/#7018
https://t.me/vvgladkov/327
Photos
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519142822007525378/photo/1
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519142822007525378/photo/2
----------------------------------------------------------
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 10:47 PM · Apr 26, 2022:
Staraya Nelidovka, 🇷🇺Belgorod Oblast, is located about 20 km from the Ukrainian border. The 🇺🇦city of Kharkiv, facing Belgorod across the border, has been under repeated Russian artillery and rocket attacks since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Map ( https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519146287379234816/photo/1 )
__________________________________________
ETA
Mystery fires at sensitive facilities compound Russia’s war challenge
Liz Sly | 27 April 2022
...An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declined to comment on whether Ukraine was responsible and said there could be many different reasons for the fires, including what he called “karma.”
“If you (Russians) decided to attack another country en masse, kill everyone there en masse, crush civilians with tanks en masse, and use warehouses in your regions to ensure the killings, then sooner or later the debts will have to be repaid,” Mykhailo Podolyak said in a Telegram post written in Russian. “And therefore the disarmament of the murderers’ Belgorod-Voronezh warehouses is an absolutely matter-of-course, natural process. Karma is a cruel thing.”...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/mystery-fires-sensitive-faciliti...
98margd
Below, Financial Times' overview of war impacts on Ukrainian agriculture and transport.
Apparently UA cultivates 57% of its land, c.f. 17% of U.S.
FT Data @ftdata · 5:52 AM · Apr 27, 2022
Ukrainian agricultural exporters are trying to shift usually sea-bound goods to trains for export via the western border. But there’s a catch: Ukrainian railway lines use a wider gauge than their European neighbours’. Here’s how to get around that:
How Russia’s war in Ukraine upended the breadbasket of Europe
John Reed in Kyiv, Emiko Terazono, Alexandra Heal, Sam Joiner, Dan Clark in London and Sam Learner in New York | 27 April 2022
Sowing seeds under fire: the perils of farming in a war zone
Bottlenecks at the border: export routes cut off by war *
New wheels on wagons: how to exchange ‘bogies’ *
(cool gif at https://twitter.com/ftdata/status/1519253117954572290 )
The shockwave of war: food shortages felt far beyond Ukraine
https://ig.ft.com/ukraine-war-food-insecurity/
https://on.ft.com/3viVxOF
-------------------------------------------------------
David Frum @davidfrum | 5:54 AM · Apr 27, 2022:
Rebuilding the Ukrainian railway network to European gauge will be a major driver of economic growth for both Ukraine and its trading partners after Ukraine's victory
Apparently UA cultivates 57% of its land, c.f. 17% of U.S.
FT Data @ftdata · 5:52 AM · Apr 27, 2022
Ukrainian agricultural exporters are trying to shift usually sea-bound goods to trains for export via the western border. But there’s a catch: Ukrainian railway lines use a wider gauge than their European neighbours’. Here’s how to get around that:
How Russia’s war in Ukraine upended the breadbasket of Europe
John Reed in Kyiv, Emiko Terazono, Alexandra Heal, Sam Joiner, Dan Clark in London and Sam Learner in New York | 27 April 2022
Sowing seeds under fire: the perils of farming in a war zone
Bottlenecks at the border: export routes cut off by war *
New wheels on wagons: how to exchange ‘bogies’ *
(cool gif at https://twitter.com/ftdata/status/1519253117954572290 )
The shockwave of war: food shortages felt far beyond Ukraine
https://ig.ft.com/ukraine-war-food-insecurity/
https://on.ft.com/3viVxOF
-------------------------------------------------------
David Frum @davidfrum | 5:54 AM · Apr 27, 2022:
Rebuilding the Ukrainian railway network to European gauge will be a major driver of economic growth for both Ukraine and its trading partners after Ukraine's victory
99margd
>87 davidgn: Sure explains why e Europeans, Baltics, Finland, Sweden would rather associate with EU and NATO, if faced with the choice.
100davidgn
>95 John5918: Exceedingly dangerous rhetoric. Overtly frames this conflict as the existential showdown the hardest-line figures in the Kremlin have been warning it is. I feel a strange urge to check on the order of potassium iodide I placed last month -- for all the good it will do.
101davidgn
Worth quoting most of this.
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-stooges-may-nuke-us-183813392.html
Bolded points mine. First bolded paragraph is the most typically Russian sentiment I've seen quoted in a while. Second and third is, best guess, unfortunately what most of the Kremlin actually believe. At what point do we recognize that these people are serious? At what point do we stop escalating?
RUSSIA
Putin’s Stooges: He May Nuke Us All but We Are Ready to Die
‘IT IS WHAT IT IS’
Just when you thought Russian airwaves could not get any stranger, Putin’s puppets have now surrendered to the idea of nuclear apocalypse, because at least they’ll “go to heaven.”
Julia Davis
Updated Apr. 27, 2022 2:54PM ET / Published Apr. 27, 2022 2:38PM ET
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-stooges-may-nuke-us-183813392.html
During Tuesday’s broadcast of 60 Minutes, Vladimir Avatkov of Russia’s Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered an Orwellian perspective of current events. “What is happening right now is not about Ukraine, but about the future world order, which has no room for hegemony and where Russia can’t be isolated.”
Host Olga Skabeeva described a summit hosted by the U.S. in Germany that day to discuss upping Ukraine’s defense capabilities as a sign that this is indeed “World War III, no longer just a special operation, with forty countries against us. They declared a war.” Portraying global opponents of Russian aggression as evil incarnate, political scientist Mikhail Markelov claimed: “The representatives of those forty different countries are today’s collective Hitler.”
“We’re all going to die someday.”
Later the same day, on The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, host Vladimir Solovyov lamented the West’s refusal to heed the Kremlin’s warnings. “If they decide to support Ukraine—even though Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told them that this could lead to WWIII—nothing will stop them. They’ve decided to play it big... These are the bastards with no morals.” Head of RT Margarita Simonyan added: “Personally, I think that the most realistic way is the way of World War III, based on knowing us and our leader, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, knowing how everything works around here, it’s impossible—there is no chance—that we will give up.”
In perhaps the most shocking declaration about a nuclear holocaust delivered on Russian television in recent months, Simonyan concluded that the idea “that everything will end with a nuclear strike, to me, is more probable than the other outcome. This is to my horror, on one hand, but on the other hand, with the understanding that it is what it is.” Solovyov chimed in: “But we will go to heaven, while they will simply croak.” Simonyan comforted the audiences by adding: “We’re all going to die someday.”
Once the conversation turned to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine and a series of fires and explosions on Russian territory, Solovyov pondered out loud: “What is preventing us from striking the territory of the United Kingdom, targeting those logistical centers where these arms are being loaded?” Andrey Sidorov, deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State University, retorted that rather than strike the U.K., Russia should target the real mastermind: America. He specified: “If we decide to strike the U.K., we should rather decide to strike the United States... Final decisions are being made not in London, but in Washington. If we want to hit the real center of the West, then we need to strike Washington.”
In a bizarre attempt to soften the blow of Russia’s grim predicament, state TV host and media personality Dmitry Kulikov told audiences that war is sometimes “inevitable.” “This is a big war. The West declared it against us. It’s being waged through different methods, never seen before, but there’s never been as many nuclear weapons in the world either,” he said. “That is the only thing that sets this war apart from all others. This is a historical event, something we’re used to. Let’s be worthy of our predecessors, everyone who lived through that. What made us think that our lives should be better than those of our grandparents? Why should we be free of our historical mission?”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova appeared on the same program and continued with the same hard line. Solovyov asked her: “How far is the West ready to go?” Without hesitation, Zakharova replied: “They’ll go as far as they’re allowed to. If they aren’t stopped, they will go all the way.”
Adding his two cents to the nuclear apocalypse sideshow on Wednesday was military expert and retired Colonel Yury Knutov. “I’ve been observing the American approach from its top levels of leadership towards Russia for several years now,” he said on the state TV show 60 Minutes. “For some reason, they believe that Russia can be choked for as long as it takes, until it surrenders, and Russia will never respond or use its nuclear weapons or its nuclear potential... They themselves are creating the situation when there is a threat to the existence of our nation and our military doctrine prescribes that it gives us the right to use nuclear weapons.”
Bolded points mine. First bolded paragraph is the most typically Russian sentiment I've seen quoted in a while. Second and third is, best guess, unfortunately what most of the Kremlin actually believe. At what point do we recognize that these people are serious? At what point do we stop escalating?
102davidgn
The huge gap between how serious nuclear war is and how seriously it’s being taken
Posted Mar 17, 2022 by Caitlin A. Johnstone
Originally published: Caitlin A Johnstone Blog on March 16, 2022 (more by Caitlin A Johnstone Blog)
https://mronline.org/2022/03/17/the-huge-gap-between-how-serious-nuclear-war-is-...
ETA
This is what would happen to Earth if a nuclear war broke out between the West and Russia
Climate change is not the only man-made threat that could wipe out humanity; a nuclear war would also do that
By MATTHEW ROZSA
PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 19, 2022 10:00AM (EST)
https://www.salon.com/2022/02/19/this-is-what-would-happen-to-earth-if-a-nuclear...
Posted Mar 17, 2022 by Caitlin A. Johnstone
Originally published: Caitlin A Johnstone Blog on March 16, 2022 (more by Caitlin A Johnstone Blog)
https://mronline.org/2022/03/17/the-huge-gap-between-how-serious-nuclear-war-is-...
ETA
This is what would happen to Earth if a nuclear war broke out between the West and Russia
Climate change is not the only man-made threat that could wipe out humanity; a nuclear war would also do that
By MATTHEW ROZSA
PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 19, 2022 10:00AM (EST)
https://www.salon.com/2022/02/19/this-is-what-would-happen-to-earth-if-a-nuclear...
103librorumamans
>74 John5918:
John, you (and everyone else) would find it worthwhile to listen to David Nott on Desert Island Discs from 2016.
John, you (and everyone else) would find it worthwhile to listen to David Nott on Desert Island Discs from 2016.
104John5918
Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now (Guardian)
By providing arms but avoiding military intervention western leaders are prolonging this hideous conflict. Talks are the best way out... Few people in the west doubt that Ukraine is fighting a just war. Russia’s invasion was entirely unprovoked. Whatever complaints it may have had about Nato expansion or Ukraine’s mistreatment of Russians in Donbas, nobody had attacked Russia, and nobody was planning to. Vladimir Putin launched a straightforward war of aggression and territorial conquest. It follows that supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do. But it is not at all clear that the kind of support we are giving (and not giving) is the right way to go about preserving the Ukrainian nation...
105John5918
UN secretary general describes war in Ukraine as ‘absurdity’ in 21st century (Guardian)
The UN secretary general has described the war in Ukraine as “an absurdity” in the 21st century on a visit to the scene of civilian killings outside Kyiv, as Russia warned the west that increasing arms supplies to Ukraine would endanger European security...
106margd
Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 3:41 PM · Apr 28, 2022:
Russian TV keeps threatening nuclear strikes against Western nations, desperately trying to deter them from continuing to help Ukraine. On a side note, this is the first state TV host who doesn't seem to be eager to die for the Motherland, arguing with a trigger-happy lawmaker.
1:14 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1519763655608479746 )
Russian TV keeps threatening nuclear strikes against Western nations, desperately trying to deter them from continuing to help Ukraine. On a side note, this is the first state TV host who doesn't seem to be eager to die for the Motherland, arguing with a trigger-happy lawmaker.
1:14 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1519763655608479746 )
107margd
Jack Detsch (Foreign Policy)@JackDetsch | 7:52 AM · Apr 28, 2022:
NEW: The Mariupol mayor’s office reports that 4 Russian filtration camps are operating in the city: US official
US amb to the OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) Michael Carpenter said a Mariupol escapee said the camps are “like ghettos” where 🇷🇺 divides up people linked to 🇺🇦 govt, military, or media
NEW: The Mariupol mayor’s office reports that 4 Russian filtration camps are operating in the city: US official
US amb to the OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) Michael Carpenter said a Mariupol escapee said the camps are “like ghettos” where 🇷🇺 divides up people linked to 🇺🇦 govt, military, or media
108margd
Ukrainian Paramedics Save Lives in Dangerous Areas of Kharkiv
As Russia’s war on Ukraine passes the two-month mark, these Ukrainian paramedics continue to risk their lives to help those in the most dangerous areas of Kharkiv
6:15 ( https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1519467178365308929 )
As Russia’s war on Ukraine passes the two-month mark, these Ukrainian paramedics continue to risk their lives to help those in the most dangerous areas of Kharkiv
6:15 ( https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1519467178365308929 )
109margd
Interesting interview with UA soldier on the war and the invaders:
David Patrikarakos (Unherd News) @dpatrikarakos | 6:59 AM · Apr 27, 2022:
https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1519270060900106240
THREAD: I’ve arrived in Dnipro to begin covering the battle for eastern #Ukraine.
Dima has been fighting since early March.
“It’s like WWII but with modern technology. 2014 was a playground compared to this.”
* I have permission to tweet his photo & all comments.
...“What has shocked me is the callousness of #Russia soldiers to their own men.”
..."Chechen soldiers? ...Their job is not to fight but to shoot Russian boy conscripts who don't want to fight. It's Soviet tactics."
..."I want to say one thing: @elonmusk's Starlink is what changed the war in #Ukraine's favour. #Russia went out of its way to blow up all our comms. Now they can't. Starlink works under Katyusha fire, under artillery fire. It even works in Mariupol."
..."I know you British have a complicated relationship with your prime minister but here @BorisJohnson has become something of a national hero. We knew from the beginning that Britain was a very ancient and important nation – and it is a country that stands by its word."...
David Patrikarakos (Unherd News) @dpatrikarakos | 6:59 AM · Apr 27, 2022:
https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1519270060900106240
THREAD: I’ve arrived in Dnipro to begin covering the battle for eastern #Ukraine.
Dima has been fighting since early March.
“It’s like WWII but with modern technology. 2014 was a playground compared to this.”
* I have permission to tweet his photo & all comments.
...“What has shocked me is the callousness of #Russia soldiers to their own men.”
..."Chechen soldiers? ...Their job is not to fight but to shoot Russian boy conscripts who don't want to fight. It's Soviet tactics."
..."I want to say one thing: @elonmusk's Starlink is what changed the war in #Ukraine's favour. #Russia went out of its way to blow up all our comms. Now they can't. Starlink works under Katyusha fire, under artillery fire. It even works in Mariupol."
..."I know you British have a complicated relationship with your prime minister but here @BorisJohnson has become something of a national hero. We knew from the beginning that Britain was a very ancient and important nation – and it is a country that stands by its word."...
110margd
‘Enormous impact’: US intelligence prevented the fall of Kyiv
Rozina Sabur | April 28, 2022
Washington: America helped foil Moscow’s efforts to take Kyiv and repelled its advances elsewhere by sharing such detailed intelligence that Ukraine knew exactly when and where Russian bombs would fall, it has emerged.
In an unprecedented information-sharing operation, US spy agencies divulged the co-ordinates of Russian forces and aircraft to Ukrainian troops, allowing them to pre-empt attacks...
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/enormous-impact-us-intelligence-prevented-th...
Rozina Sabur | April 28, 2022
Washington: America helped foil Moscow’s efforts to take Kyiv and repelled its advances elsewhere by sharing such detailed intelligence that Ukraine knew exactly when and where Russian bombs would fall, it has emerged.
In an unprecedented information-sharing operation, US spy agencies divulged the co-ordinates of Russian forces and aircraft to Ukrainian troops, allowing them to pre-empt attacks...
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/enormous-impact-us-intelligence-prevented-th...
111margd
Laurence Tribe (Harvard Law) tribelaw | 7:10 PM · Apr 27, 2022
The author says my recent NYT proposal to seize Russian government dollars frozen in the U.S. “blows by potential legal obstacles at warp speed.” That’s because I lacked the luxury of space. In a forthcoming piece, I will respond in full to this analysis.
Giving Russian Assets to Ukraine—Freezing Is Not Seizing
Paul Stephan* | Tuesday, April 26, 2022
The International Economic Emergency Powers Act and Implied Presidential Authority
Constitutional Issues With Hypothetical New Legislation
International Legal Issues With Possible New Legislation
...I appreciate the impulse to hoist Russia on its own petard. The invasion is an outrage, and the atrocities that have come to light disgust any sensible person. One can hope for a resolution that will both stop the killing and destruction while vindicating basic values and a sense of justice. In the meantime, the U.S. should provide Ukraine what aid it can, based on current authorities or new ones adopted by Congress. What the executive branch should not do is pretend that Russia’s money can be used to provide material support to Ukraine in the face of existing legal barriers.
Confiscating the frozen central bank assets is not something to be done lightly, if at all. In arguing that the executive already has the authority to do this and that Russia’s property in any event enjoys no legal protection in the United States, Tribe, Lewin, Zelikow and Johnson play to the passions of the American public, not its judgment. Grave and consequential matters of constitutional and international law are at stake. U.S. policymakers should not ignore these considerations just because doing so would make the American people, however briefly, feel good.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/giving-russian-assets-ukraine-freezing-not-seizing
*Paul Stephan is the John C. Jeffries, Jr., Distinguished Professor of Law and David H. Ibbeken ’71 Research Professor of Law at the University of Virginia School of Law. He served as counselor on international law to the legal adviser of the U.S. State Department in 2006-07 and as special counsel to the general counsel of the U.S. Department of Defense in 2020-21.
The author says my recent NYT proposal to seize Russian government dollars frozen in the U.S. “blows by potential legal obstacles at warp speed.” That’s because I lacked the luxury of space. In a forthcoming piece, I will respond in full to this analysis.
Giving Russian Assets to Ukraine—Freezing Is Not Seizing
Paul Stephan* | Tuesday, April 26, 2022
The International Economic Emergency Powers Act and Implied Presidential Authority
Constitutional Issues With Hypothetical New Legislation
International Legal Issues With Possible New Legislation
...I appreciate the impulse to hoist Russia on its own petard. The invasion is an outrage, and the atrocities that have come to light disgust any sensible person. One can hope for a resolution that will both stop the killing and destruction while vindicating basic values and a sense of justice. In the meantime, the U.S. should provide Ukraine what aid it can, based on current authorities or new ones adopted by Congress. What the executive branch should not do is pretend that Russia’s money can be used to provide material support to Ukraine in the face of existing legal barriers.
Confiscating the frozen central bank assets is not something to be done lightly, if at all. In arguing that the executive already has the authority to do this and that Russia’s property in any event enjoys no legal protection in the United States, Tribe, Lewin, Zelikow and Johnson play to the passions of the American public, not its judgment. Grave and consequential matters of constitutional and international law are at stake. U.S. policymakers should not ignore these considerations just because doing so would make the American people, however briefly, feel good.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/giving-russian-assets-ukraine-freezing-not-seizing
*Paul Stephan is the John C. Jeffries, Jr., Distinguished Professor of Law and David H. Ibbeken ’71 Research Professor of Law at the University of Virginia School of Law. He served as counselor on international law to the legal adviser of the U.S. State Department in 2006-07 and as special counsel to the general counsel of the U.S. Department of Defense in 2020-21.
112davidgn
Chilling presentation on the downstream agriculture impacts from Peter Zeihan. They're just getting started. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMSch7g-ias
113margd
>112 davidgn: Interesting--thx. Per one comment, UA can likely feed itself as many have small personal plots of this fertile land, but the prospect of famine for dependent ag markets is, as you say, chilling...
114davidgn
One of the best inter-cultural translators I've found. This is absolutely required listening.
The REAL reason Putin might start a nuclear war
https://youtu.be/Jyni1VYT_hI
This follow-up is important as well, which contextualizes all of this within the Russian cultural and literary tradition. Yes, Gogol's troika came to my mind as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6UiEXrVrvg
The REAL reason Putin might start a nuclear war
https://youtu.be/Jyni1VYT_hI
This follow-up is important as well, which contextualizes all of this within the Russian cultural and literary tradition. Yes, Gogol's troika came to my mind as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6UiEXrVrvg
115davidgn
And here's the late Gen. Colin Powell's long-time aide, Col. Wilkerson, with Paul Jay, discussing nuclear weapons and Ukraine. Top of my list when I get a chance to read/watch.
https://theanalysis.news/ukraine-and-the-doomsday-machine-larry-wilkerson-and-pa...
https://theanalysis.news/ukraine-and-the-doomsday-machine-larry-wilkerson-and-pa...
There’s a word that’s missing in all this conversation about nuclear war. There’s a lot of discussion about tactical nuclear weapons, low-yield nuclear weapons as if it’s just another weapon. The word that’s missing, and that’s the word that comes from the Doctor Strangelove movie or the Daniel Ellsberg book; that word is the doomsday machine. There actually are doomsday machines. The U.S. and the Russians both have it. The talk of tactical nuclear weapons as if it somehow doesn’t lead to a greater nuclear war is kind of shocking and amazing. But here we are.
116margd
April 29, 2022 | Clip Of Defense Department Briefing (1:21)
Pentagon Spokesman Becomes Emotional About War in Ukraine
Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby becomes emotional when responding to a question about whether Vladimir Putin is a rational actor. "It's difficult to look...Sorry, it's difficult to look at some of the images and imagine that any well-thinking, serious, mature leader would do that....I can't talk to his psychology, but I think we can all speak to his depravity," Kirby says.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5012872/pentagon-spokesman-emotional-war-ukraine
______________________________________________
Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman @Mij_Europe | 8:42 AM · Apr 29, 2022:
MD Europe @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @hmtreasury @EU_Commission. Senior Research Fellow @LSEEI. Columnist @POLITICOEurope...
A senior EU source tells me:
“Putin has now taken day-to day-control of the conflict and
delegated the running of Russia to the Prime Minister”
------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA:
David Frum @davidfrum | 5:37 PM · Apr 29, 2022:
Hitler did the same with the German army on the Russian front in December 1941. It didn't go well.
Dunning-Kruger, but for dictators losing wars.
Putin taking over day-to-day control of the Russian military seems like the sort of thing that can encourage a very negative response from that military if things go badly.
- Mark R. Yzaguirre @markyzaguirre | 5:41 PM · Apr 29, 2022
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA:
Reasons for the February Revolution, 1917
"...(WW1) In 1915, Tsar Nicholas II took personal command of the army. He left St Petersburg and moved to army headquarters in Russian Poland.
Nicholas II may have believed that, by taking charge, his army would be inspired and would fight with renewed vigour. Unfortunately, the Tsar knew little about the command and organisation of large military forces. The series of defeats and humiliations continued.
The organisation of the Russian army deteriorated and there were massive shortages of ammunition, equipment, and medical supplies.
Nicholas II's decision to take charge meant that he was increasingly seen by the Russian people as having personal responsibility for the military disasters inflicted on Russia. .."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/ztyk87h/revision/3
_______________________________________________
Protester sign:
"Dear Putin, Let's speed up to the part where you kill yourself in a bunker"...
Photo ( https://twitter.com/Cryptos_Girl/status/1496980625466609666/photo/1 )
Pentagon Spokesman Becomes Emotional About War in Ukraine
Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby becomes emotional when responding to a question about whether Vladimir Putin is a rational actor. "It's difficult to look...Sorry, it's difficult to look at some of the images and imagine that any well-thinking, serious, mature leader would do that....I can't talk to his psychology, but I think we can all speak to his depravity," Kirby says.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5012872/pentagon-spokesman-emotional-war-ukraine
______________________________________________
Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman @Mij_Europe | 8:42 AM · Apr 29, 2022:
MD Europe @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @hmtreasury @EU_Commission. Senior Research Fellow @LSEEI. Columnist @POLITICOEurope...
A senior EU source tells me:
“Putin has now taken day-to day-control of the conflict and
delegated the running of Russia to the Prime Minister”
------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA:
David Frum @davidfrum | 5:37 PM · Apr 29, 2022:
Hitler did the same with the German army on the Russian front in December 1941. It didn't go well.
Dunning-Kruger, but for dictators losing wars.
Putin taking over day-to-day control of the Russian military seems like the sort of thing that can encourage a very negative response from that military if things go badly.
- Mark R. Yzaguirre @markyzaguirre | 5:41 PM · Apr 29, 2022
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA:
Reasons for the February Revolution, 1917
"...(WW1) In 1915, Tsar Nicholas II took personal command of the army. He left St Petersburg and moved to army headquarters in Russian Poland.
Nicholas II may have believed that, by taking charge, his army would be inspired and would fight with renewed vigour. Unfortunately, the Tsar knew little about the command and organisation of large military forces. The series of defeats and humiliations continued.
The organisation of the Russian army deteriorated and there were massive shortages of ammunition, equipment, and medical supplies.
Nicholas II's decision to take charge meant that he was increasingly seen by the Russian people as having personal responsibility for the military disasters inflicted on Russia. .."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/ztyk87h/revision/3
_______________________________________________
Protester sign:
"Dear Putin, Let's speed up to the part where you kill yourself in a bunker"...
Photo ( https://twitter.com/Cryptos_Girl/status/1496980625466609666/photo/1 )
117margd
Air attacks hit near UN chief as Antonio Guterres visits Ukraine
Al Jazeera |
The United Nations expressed astonishment after a Russian missile attack hit close to Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as he visited Ukraine to help the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians caught in “mortal danger”.
Guterres and his team were “shocked” by the proximity of the Russian attacks that slammed into central Kyiv as they visited on Thursday but were all safe, a UN spokesman said. It was the boldest attack on the capital since Moscow’s forces retreated weeks ago.
...Today, immediately after the end of our talks in Kyiv, Russian missiles flew into the city. Five rockets. And this says a lot … about the Russian leadership’s efforts to humiliate the UN and everything that the organisation represents,” Zelenskyy said...
Guterres met with Zelenskyy following talks with President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday when the Russian leader agreed “in principle” to UN and International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) involvement in evacuating the Azovstal plant.
Guterres said intense discussions were continuing to enable the evacuation of the steel plant where fighters and civilians are holed up in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol.
The Mariupol city council has said about 100,000 residents across the city are “in mortal danger” because of Russian shelling and unsanitary conditions, and described a “catastrophic” shortage of drinking water and food.
...Referring to the possibility of a UN and ICRC-coordinated humanitarian corridor for the hundreds of civilians believed to still be in Azovstal, Guterres said: “As we speak, there are intense discussions to move forward on this proposal to make it a reality.
...Russia is preventing wounded Ukrainian fighters from being evacuated from the steel factory, the local governor said.
“They (want to) use the opportunity to capture the defenders of Mariupol, one of the main elements of whom are the … Azov regiment,” Donbas Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko told a briefing, referring to a group of fighters that Moscow has vilified.
“Therefore, the Russian side is not agreeing to any evacuation measures regarding wounded troops.”
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Putin had been quite clear while civilians could leave the plant, the defenders had to lay down their arms, the Tass state-owned news agency reported...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/28/un-chief-visits-ukraine-witnesses-explo...
----------------------------------------------
The woman Putin killed in attack on Kiev:
Yaroslava Antipina @strategywoman | 6:38 AM · Apr 29, 2022:
It’s hard but I need to put in this war diary such moments. Probably you’ve heard that yesterday russian missile killed Ukrainian journalist in Kyiv.
It hurts much reading her page with all these posts from people in her memory
https://facebook.com/vira.hyrych
Al Jazeera |
The United Nations expressed astonishment after a Russian missile attack hit close to Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as he visited Ukraine to help the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians caught in “mortal danger”.
Guterres and his team were “shocked” by the proximity of the Russian attacks that slammed into central Kyiv as they visited on Thursday but were all safe, a UN spokesman said. It was the boldest attack on the capital since Moscow’s forces retreated weeks ago.
...Today, immediately after the end of our talks in Kyiv, Russian missiles flew into the city. Five rockets. And this says a lot … about the Russian leadership’s efforts to humiliate the UN and everything that the organisation represents,” Zelenskyy said...
Guterres met with Zelenskyy following talks with President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday when the Russian leader agreed “in principle” to UN and International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) involvement in evacuating the Azovstal plant.
Guterres said intense discussions were continuing to enable the evacuation of the steel plant where fighters and civilians are holed up in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol.
The Mariupol city council has said about 100,000 residents across the city are “in mortal danger” because of Russian shelling and unsanitary conditions, and described a “catastrophic” shortage of drinking water and food.
...Referring to the possibility of a UN and ICRC-coordinated humanitarian corridor for the hundreds of civilians believed to still be in Azovstal, Guterres said: “As we speak, there are intense discussions to move forward on this proposal to make it a reality.
...Russia is preventing wounded Ukrainian fighters from being evacuated from the steel factory, the local governor said.
“They (want to) use the opportunity to capture the defenders of Mariupol, one of the main elements of whom are the … Azov regiment,” Donbas Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko told a briefing, referring to a group of fighters that Moscow has vilified.
“Therefore, the Russian side is not agreeing to any evacuation measures regarding wounded troops.”
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Putin had been quite clear while civilians could leave the plant, the defenders had to lay down their arms, the Tass state-owned news agency reported...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/28/un-chief-visits-ukraine-witnesses-explo...
----------------------------------------------
The woman Putin killed in attack on Kiev:
Yaroslava Antipina @strategywoman | 6:38 AM · Apr 29, 2022:
It’s hard but I need to put in this war diary such moments. Probably you’ve heard that yesterday russian missile killed Ukrainian journalist in Kyiv.
It hurts much reading her page with all these posts from people in her memory
https://facebook.com/vira.hyrych
118John5918
Ukraine - the narrative the West doesn't hear (BBC)
"Ukraine and its allies, including London, are threatening Russia for the last 1,000 years, to move Nato to our borders, to cancel our culture - they have bullied us for many, many years." That is what Yevgeny Popov, a member of the Russian Duma (parliament) and an influential TV host in Russia, told the BBC's Ukrainecast on 19 April. "Of course Nato plans for Ukraine are a direct threat to Russian citizens." His views were both surprising and enlightening as to the very different narrative put out by the Kremlin, compared to the way it's viewed in the West. To European and Western ears, these pronouncements sound almost unfathomable, even amounting to a blatant disregard for carefully documented evidence. Yet these are just some of the beliefs held not only by Kremlin supporters in Russia and across the wider population there but also in several other parts of the world...
119margd
Western artillery surging into Ukraine will reshape war with Russia
Dan Lamothe | April 30, 2022
...The expanded artillery battle follows Russia’s failed effort to rapidly seize Ukraine’s major population centers, including the capital, Kyiv. It comes as the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western benefactors brace for what is expected to be a grinding campaign in the Donbas region. The conflict there is expected to showcase the long-range cannons that are a centerpiece of Russia’s arsenal, weaponry already used to devastating effect in places such as Mariupol, a southern port city that has been pulverized by unrelenting bombardment.
The U.S. and Canadian howitzers bound for Ukraine are towed on trailers, while those pledged by France — systems known as self-propelled Caesar howitzers — fire the same 155 mm explosive rounds, but from the back of a truck chassis.
...Ukraine uses Soviet-era weapons against Russia...The introduction of various Western artillery pieces is expected to accelerate a tactical shift by both sides to employ what is known as counter-battery fire, in which military forces seek out their enemy’s artillery, determine its location and attack, analysts said.
...Ukraine’s ability to target Russian artillery units is especially important, analysts say, because of the Kremlin’s demonstrated willingness to lob round after round into cities and towns, destroying civilian homes and infrastructure. “Just the existence” of more Ukrainian artillery units performing counter-battery fire will degrade Russia’s ability to “sit there, pile up ammo and go to town,” said Scott Boston, a former U.S. Army field artillery officer who studies the Russian military for the Rand Corp.
...Artillery units often disguise themselves with camouflage or other forms of cover, and it can require a mixture of intelligence, unmanned aircraft and radar to spot them. The West is providing Ukraine with drones and counter-battery radar to do just that...shoot and scoot...
...The shipping of Western artillery into Ukraine is important partly because there are few places where Ukraine can find replacement rounds for its Soviet-era systems, said Sam Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Poland, Bulgaria and a few other NATO allies produce them, but many more countries produce ammunition for Western weapons.
...Russian forces are using artillery to extricate themselves from Ukrainian ambushes and inflict fatalities as well as to avoid having to go “into the teeth of these very high-end Western weapons,” including Javelin and NLAW anti-armor missiles, that already have destroyed some Russian units, Cranny-Evans said.
“They’re just going to sit back and let their long-range assets to do the work because they don’t have the manpower to waste,” he said.
...Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said in an interview that there is a role for collaboration among Western countries in providing weapons to Ukraine that are “consistent and interchangeable,” allowing Ukraine to learn the systems and maintain them when they are damaged.
...“If you do a good job of bottling someone up, then they’re going to be way more vulnerable to artillery than if they were dispersed and in cover,” he said. “If the Russians don’t have confidence that they can disperse because they’re going to get picked off by Javelin teams, then they might be bunching for security against that — and then be more vulnerable against artillery.”...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/30/ukraine-russia-artil...
Dan Lamothe | April 30, 2022
...The expanded artillery battle follows Russia’s failed effort to rapidly seize Ukraine’s major population centers, including the capital, Kyiv. It comes as the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western benefactors brace for what is expected to be a grinding campaign in the Donbas region. The conflict there is expected to showcase the long-range cannons that are a centerpiece of Russia’s arsenal, weaponry already used to devastating effect in places such as Mariupol, a southern port city that has been pulverized by unrelenting bombardment.
The U.S. and Canadian howitzers bound for Ukraine are towed on trailers, while those pledged by France — systems known as self-propelled Caesar howitzers — fire the same 155 mm explosive rounds, but from the back of a truck chassis.
...Ukraine uses Soviet-era weapons against Russia...The introduction of various Western artillery pieces is expected to accelerate a tactical shift by both sides to employ what is known as counter-battery fire, in which military forces seek out their enemy’s artillery, determine its location and attack, analysts said.
...Ukraine’s ability to target Russian artillery units is especially important, analysts say, because of the Kremlin’s demonstrated willingness to lob round after round into cities and towns, destroying civilian homes and infrastructure. “Just the existence” of more Ukrainian artillery units performing counter-battery fire will degrade Russia’s ability to “sit there, pile up ammo and go to town,” said Scott Boston, a former U.S. Army field artillery officer who studies the Russian military for the Rand Corp.
...Artillery units often disguise themselves with camouflage or other forms of cover, and it can require a mixture of intelligence, unmanned aircraft and radar to spot them. The West is providing Ukraine with drones and counter-battery radar to do just that...shoot and scoot...
...The shipping of Western artillery into Ukraine is important partly because there are few places where Ukraine can find replacement rounds for its Soviet-era systems, said Sam Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Poland, Bulgaria and a few other NATO allies produce them, but many more countries produce ammunition for Western weapons.
...Russian forces are using artillery to extricate themselves from Ukrainian ambushes and inflict fatalities as well as to avoid having to go “into the teeth of these very high-end Western weapons,” including Javelin and NLAW anti-armor missiles, that already have destroyed some Russian units, Cranny-Evans said.
“They’re just going to sit back and let their long-range assets to do the work because they don’t have the manpower to waste,” he said.
...Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said in an interview that there is a role for collaboration among Western countries in providing weapons to Ukraine that are “consistent and interchangeable,” allowing Ukraine to learn the systems and maintain them when they are damaged.
...“If you do a good job of bottling someone up, then they’re going to be way more vulnerable to artillery than if they were dispersed and in cover,” he said. “If the Russians don’t have confidence that they can disperse because they’re going to get picked off by Javelin teams, then they might be bunching for security against that — and then be more vulnerable against artillery.”...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/30/ukraine-russia-artil...
120margd
Olga Tokariuk (independent journalist) @olgatokariuk | 5:17 PM · Apr 29, 2022
Pope Francis reached out to Putin three times asking to allow the ship with a Vatican flag to evacuate civilians trapped in Mariupol's Azovstal steel mill, but all three times his requests were rejected, according to the Italian newspaper Il Messaggero
Putin per tre volte ha detto “no” al Papa per i corridoi umanitari a Mariupol, sfumata l'idea di...
Città del Vaticano - In questi sessanta giorni di conflitto Papa Francesco ha cercato per ben tre volte di esercitare il suo peso di autorità morale sul Cremlino, inviando...
https://www.ilmessaggero.it/vaticano/papa_francesco_ucraina_guerra_mariupol_corr...
Pope Francis reached out to Putin three times asking to allow the ship with a Vatican flag to evacuate civilians trapped in Mariupol's Azovstal steel mill, but all three times his requests were rejected, according to the Italian newspaper Il Messaggero
Putin per tre volte ha detto “no” al Papa per i corridoi umanitari a Mariupol, sfumata l'idea di...
Città del Vaticano - In questi sessanta giorni di conflitto Papa Francesco ha cercato per ben tre volte di esercitare il suo peso di autorità morale sul Cremlino, inviando...
https://www.ilmessaggero.it/vaticano/papa_francesco_ucraina_guerra_mariupol_corr...
121margd
Linas Linkevicius @LinkeviciusL | 1:59 AM · May 1, 2022:
Lithuania. Former Minister of Defence and former Minister of Foreign Affairs
Mariupol three months ago and after ‘Russian world’ came in.
Aerial photos
https://twitter.com/LinkeviciusL/status/1520644144800149507/photo/1
https://twitter.com/LinkeviciusL/status/1520644144800149507/photo/2
122margd
Shashank Joshi @shashj | 3:49 PM · May 1, 2022:
Defence Editor at TheEconomist
Russia’s Occupation of Southern Ukraine Hardens, With Rubles, Russian Schools and Lenin Statues
Yaroslav Trofimo, Photos by Manu Brabo |
May. 1, 2022
...Russian occupation authorities are swiftly integrating (A swath of southern Ukraine, including almost all of its Kherson region and the majority of its Zaporizhzhia region) into Russia, appointing collaborationist administrations and introducing Russian documents, education programs and currency. On Saturday, Russian authorities disconnected most of the occupied areas in southern Ukraine from Ukrainian cellphone service and internet providers by cutting fiber-optic cables and turning off power at base stations so as to hide “truthful information about the course of the war”...
The biggest fear, especially among men, in areas under Russian control is that they will soon be forcibly drafted to fight other Ukrainians. That happened earlier this year to men up to the age of 65 in the parts of eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions that Moscow has controlled since 2014.
“If they conscript you, and your family is left behind as hostages, what can you do? This was one of the main reasons why we got out,” said Mykola Murashko, 46, who drove to Zaporizhzhia on Wednesday with his wife and children from the Russian-occupied town of Vasylivka...
https://wsj.com/articles/russias-occupation-of-southern-ukraine-hardens-with-rub...
Defence Editor at TheEconomist
Russia’s Occupation of Southern Ukraine Hardens, With Rubles, Russian Schools and Lenin Statues
Yaroslav Trofimo, Photos by Manu Brabo |
May. 1, 2022
...Russian occupation authorities are swiftly integrating (A swath of southern Ukraine, including almost all of its Kherson region and the majority of its Zaporizhzhia region) into Russia, appointing collaborationist administrations and introducing Russian documents, education programs and currency. On Saturday, Russian authorities disconnected most of the occupied areas in southern Ukraine from Ukrainian cellphone service and internet providers by cutting fiber-optic cables and turning off power at base stations so as to hide “truthful information about the course of the war”...
The biggest fear, especially among men, in areas under Russian control is that they will soon be forcibly drafted to fight other Ukrainians. That happened earlier this year to men up to the age of 65 in the parts of eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions that Moscow has controlled since 2014.
“If they conscript you, and your family is left behind as hostages, what can you do? This was one of the main reasons why we got out,” said Mykola Murashko, 46, who drove to Zaporizhzhia on Wednesday with his wife and children from the Russian-occupied town of Vasylivka...
https://wsj.com/articles/russias-occupation-of-southern-ukraine-hardens-with-rub...
123margd
Hacking Russia was off-limits. The Ukraine war made it a free-for-all.
Joseph Menn | May 2, 2022
Experts anticipated a Moscow-led cyber-assault; instead, unprecedented attacks by hacktivists and criminals have wreaked havoc in Russia...the third month of war finds Russia, not the United States, struggling under an unprecedented hacking wave that entwines government activity, political voluntarism and criminal action...
Last month, a quarterly survey of email addresses, passwords and other sensitive data released on the open Web identified more victim accounts likely to be Russian than those from any other country. Russia topped the survey for the first time...The number of presumed Russian credentials, such as those for email addresses ending in .ru, in March jumped to encompass 50 percent of the global total, double the previous month and more than five times as many published as were in January.
“The U.S. is first most of the time. Sometimes it’s India,” said SurfShark data researcher Agneska Sablovskaja “It was really surprising for us.”...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-occupation-of-southern-ukraine-hardens-with...
----------------------------------------------------------
Meet the Sneakiest Defenders of Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine
"If you are truly against the war in Ukraine, you must also be against the US and NATO, which started that war."
https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-the-sneakiest-defenders-of-vladimir-putins-uk...
Joseph Menn | May 2, 2022
Experts anticipated a Moscow-led cyber-assault; instead, unprecedented attacks by hacktivists and criminals have wreaked havoc in Russia...the third month of war finds Russia, not the United States, struggling under an unprecedented hacking wave that entwines government activity, political voluntarism and criminal action...
Last month, a quarterly survey of email addresses, passwords and other sensitive data released on the open Web identified more victim accounts likely to be Russian than those from any other country. Russia topped the survey for the first time...The number of presumed Russian credentials, such as those for email addresses ending in .ru, in March jumped to encompass 50 percent of the global total, double the previous month and more than five times as many published as were in January.
“The U.S. is first most of the time. Sometimes it’s India,” said SurfShark data researcher Agneska Sablovskaja “It was really surprising for us.”...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-occupation-of-southern-ukraine-hardens-with...
----------------------------------------------------------
Meet the Sneakiest Defenders of Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine
"If you are truly against the war in Ukraine, you must also be against the US and NATO, which started that war."
https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-the-sneakiest-defenders-of-vladimir-putins-uk...
124margd
Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (newslinesmag)@michaeldweiss | 1:31 PM · May 1, 2022:
Not independently verified but… Ukrainian military intelligence tells me Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the general staff, was “lightly injured” in an artillery strike in Izyum. Gerasimov was evacuated. Another general and “dozens of high staff officers were killed.”
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling
Retired general, frmr cdr US Army Europe
🧵 1/15 https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1520887048063930368
If these reports of GEN Gerasimov being wounded (and many others being killed and wounded) in the Izyum front, it's a big deal.
But for even more reasons that this being "another general" being killed/wounded on the front lines.
GEN Valery Gerasimov was appointed Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces & First Deputy Defence Minister by Putin on 9 November 2012.
In other words, he has been the counterpart of our Chairman of the Joint Staff for 10 years!
The #1 guy in RU's military. 2/ ...
A few weeks ago, Putin named Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov (the "butcher") the new commander of the Ukrainian theater of operation. He called Gerasimov back to Moscow.
Good call having a "theater commander."
Last week, rumor has Gerasimov in Izyum.
My reaction: WTF? 4/
This would be the equivalent of placing GEN Milley in charge of a tactical battle in a small sector under the operational command of, say, GEN Wolters of EUCOM.
Embarrassing for the senior dude (Gerasimov); awkward for the junior dude (Dvornikov).
And who's in Moscow? 5/
What makes it worse...apparently (if reports are correct) *someone* (Gerasimov?) decided to have a battlefield "huddle" on the front lines near the intense fight occurring near Izyum.
Not a smart "general officer" move. 6/
Then...to make it even worse...it appears RU is still having Command, Control, Communication & Intelligence (C3I) issues.
Russia is having a very hard time overcoming their reliance on overt hierarchical command structure. 7/
Chart-New Organizational Structure of the Armed Forces
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1520887066258726913/photo/1
...
US doctrine defines MISSION COMMAND as "the exercise of authority & direction by the commander using mission orders to enable disciplined initiative within the commander's intent to empower agile & adaptive leaders in the conduct of unified land operations."... 10/
...
...leader development requires commanders "build their bench."
That is, ensure they take time in ensuring their are those on their team who can "take over" if someone is killed or injured on the battlefield... 12/
From my limited observations of the Russian Army, they have no clue how to do this.
At the senior, middle, or junior level.
The result is indiscipline and chaos when someone is killed or injured and removed from the field. 13/
...
__________________________________________________
Jimmy @JimmySecUK | 3:04 PM · Apr 30, 2022:
Ukrainian sources are claiming this artillery strike on a 2nd Army Russian command post near Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, killed Major General Andrey Simonov*.
It's yet to be confirmed by Russian sources but it's significant they named a specific general.
0:22 ( https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1520479287995994112 )
From Euromaidan Press
* Russian military's leading electronic warfare specialist
Not independently verified but… Ukrainian military intelligence tells me Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the general staff, was “lightly injured” in an artillery strike in Izyum. Gerasimov was evacuated. Another general and “dozens of high staff officers were killed.”
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling
Retired general, frmr cdr US Army Europe
🧵 1/15 https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1520887048063930368
If these reports of GEN Gerasimov being wounded (and many others being killed and wounded) in the Izyum front, it's a big deal.
But for even more reasons that this being "another general" being killed/wounded on the front lines.
GEN Valery Gerasimov was appointed Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces & First Deputy Defence Minister by Putin on 9 November 2012.
In other words, he has been the counterpart of our Chairman of the Joint Staff for 10 years!
The #1 guy in RU's military. 2/ ...
A few weeks ago, Putin named Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov (the "butcher") the new commander of the Ukrainian theater of operation. He called Gerasimov back to Moscow.
Good call having a "theater commander."
Last week, rumor has Gerasimov in Izyum.
My reaction: WTF? 4/
This would be the equivalent of placing GEN Milley in charge of a tactical battle in a small sector under the operational command of, say, GEN Wolters of EUCOM.
Embarrassing for the senior dude (Gerasimov); awkward for the junior dude (Dvornikov).
And who's in Moscow? 5/
What makes it worse...apparently (if reports are correct) *someone* (Gerasimov?) decided to have a battlefield "huddle" on the front lines near the intense fight occurring near Izyum.
Not a smart "general officer" move. 6/
Then...to make it even worse...it appears RU is still having Command, Control, Communication & Intelligence (C3I) issues.
Russia is having a very hard time overcoming their reliance on overt hierarchical command structure. 7/
Chart-New Organizational Structure of the Armed Forces
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1520887066258726913/photo/1
...
US doctrine defines MISSION COMMAND as "the exercise of authority & direction by the commander using mission orders to enable disciplined initiative within the commander's intent to empower agile & adaptive leaders in the conduct of unified land operations."... 10/
...
...leader development requires commanders "build their bench."
That is, ensure they take time in ensuring their are those on their team who can "take over" if someone is killed or injured on the battlefield... 12/
From my limited observations of the Russian Army, they have no clue how to do this.
At the senior, middle, or junior level.
The result is indiscipline and chaos when someone is killed or injured and removed from the field. 13/
...
__________________________________________________
Jimmy @JimmySecUK | 3:04 PM · Apr 30, 2022:
Ukrainian sources are claiming this artillery strike on a 2nd Army Russian command post near Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, killed Major General Andrey Simonov*.
It's yet to be confirmed by Russian sources but it's significant they named a specific general.
0:22 ( https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1520479287995994112 )
From Euromaidan Press
* Russian military's leading electronic warfare specialist
125margd
Hanna Liubakova (journalist) @HannaLiubakova | 6:39 AM · May 1, 2022:
Ukrainian intelligence: We neutralized saboteurs who wanted to shoot down a passenger plane on the territory of Russia or Belarus. According to Ukrainians, the Armed Forces of Russia planned to blame Ukraine for a terrorist attack.
2:12 ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1520714479771820032 )
---------------------------------------------------
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 8:05 PM · May 1, 2022:
Seems to be a very busy night for the air defenses covering the Russian city of Belgorod tonight.
Are the Ukrainians our looking for fuel or arms depots again?
0:06 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520917437570555904 )
From D.Emery
---------------------------------------------------
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 8:56 PM · May 1, 2022
The Russians living in Belgorod aren’t getting any sleep tonight.
Something is going on in the airspace above the city.
0:05 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520930249097236480 )
From Moshe Schwartz
-----------------------------------------------------
Samuel Ramani (U Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 12:25 PM · May 1, 2022
BREAKING: Denmark summons Russia's ambassador after a Russian spy plane violates its airspace
Ukrainian intelligence: We neutralized saboteurs who wanted to shoot down a passenger plane on the territory of Russia or Belarus. According to Ukrainians, the Armed Forces of Russia planned to blame Ukraine for a terrorist attack.
2:12 ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1520714479771820032 )
---------------------------------------------------
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 8:05 PM · May 1, 2022:
Seems to be a very busy night for the air defenses covering the Russian city of Belgorod tonight.
Are the Ukrainians our looking for fuel or arms depots again?
0:06 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520917437570555904 )
From D.Emery
---------------------------------------------------
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 8:56 PM · May 1, 2022
The Russians living in Belgorod aren’t getting any sleep tonight.
Something is going on in the airspace above the city.
0:05 ( https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520930249097236480 )
From Moshe Schwartz
-----------------------------------------------------
Samuel Ramani (U Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 12:25 PM · May 1, 2022
BREAKING: Denmark summons Russia's ambassador after a Russian spy plane violates its airspace
126margd
The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which its expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared.
- OSINTdefender @sentdefender | 4:48 PM · Apr 29, 2022
Open Source Intelligence Monitor currently focused on Eastern Europe and the ongoing Crisis in Ukraine, Geospatial Analyst.
- OSINTdefender @sentdefender | 4:48 PM · Apr 29, 2022
Open Source Intelligence Monitor currently focused on Eastern Europe and the ongoing Crisis in Ukraine, Geospatial Analyst.
127margd
Michael McFaul (frmr Amb to Russia) McFaul | 8:57 AM · Apr 29, 2022
How can Cuba be on the @StateDept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism, but Russia is not?
State Sponsors of Terrorism - United States Department of State
Countries determined by the Secretary of State to have repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism are designated pursuant to three laws: section1754(c) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, section 40 of the Arms Export Control Act, and section 620A of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961). Taken together, the four main categories of sanctions resulting from designation under these authorities include restrictions on U.S. foreign assistance; a ban on defense exports and sales; certain controls over exports of dual use items; and miscellaneous financial and other restrictions.
Designation under the above-referenced authorities also implicates other sanctions laws that penalize persons and countries engaging in certain trade with state sponsors. Currently there are four countries designated under these authorities: Cuba, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), Iran, and Syria.
https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/
How can Cuba be on the @StateDept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism, but Russia is not?
State Sponsors of Terrorism - United States Department of State
Countries determined by the Secretary of State to have repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism are designated pursuant to three laws: section1754(c) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, section 40 of the Arms Export Control Act, and section 620A of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961). Taken together, the four main categories of sanctions resulting from designation under these authorities include restrictions on U.S. foreign assistance; a ban on defense exports and sales; certain controls over exports of dual use items; and miscellaneous financial and other restrictions.
Designation under the above-referenced authorities also implicates other sanctions laws that penalize persons and countries engaging in certain trade with state sponsors. Currently there are four countries designated under these authorities: Cuba, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), Iran, and Syria.
https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/
128margd
Michael McFaul (frmr amb to Russia) McFaul | 3:26 PM · Apr 28, 2022
Letting the historical analogy of 1945 shape their analysis, so many assume that @ZelenskyyUa
and the Ukrainian people would surrender if Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon. Huge assumption. One can easily imagine that Ukrainians might fight even harder and longer.
The analogy with 1945 s also very imprecise.
1. By 1945, Japan had been at war for many years.
2. Japan was losing.
3. No one in the world supported Japan by 1945.
4. Japan had no means to strike back at US (Ukraine can do things against Russia inside Russia).
5. Who in the world would defend Putin's use of a tactical nuke in Ukraine? Right now, big chunks of the world are on the sidelines in this war. That would change if he used a nuke.
Letting the historical analogy of 1945 shape their analysis, so many assume that @ZelenskyyUa
and the Ukrainian people would surrender if Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon. Huge assumption. One can easily imagine that Ukrainians might fight even harder and longer.
The analogy with 1945 s also very imprecise.
1. By 1945, Japan had been at war for many years.
2. Japan was losing.
3. No one in the world supported Japan by 1945.
4. Japan had no means to strike back at US (Ukraine can do things against Russia inside Russia).
5. Who in the world would defend Putin's use of a tactical nuke in Ukraine? Right now, big chunks of the world are on the sidelines in this war. That would change if he used a nuke.
129margd
End game questions (21-25) for any Ukraine offensive are interesting--including what would bring Russia to the table?
Mick Ryan, AM strategist, Australian? Army General, retired) @WarintheFuture | 10:15 PM · Apr 30, 2022:
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1520587628793368576
...7/25 ...Can Ukraine go on the offensive in the east and what might that look like? In answering this, I will explore five issues: timing; location; design / sequencing; resources; & limits of Ukrainian exploitation.
8/25 Timing. In war, the clock is always ticking. The ability to exploit time is one of the most important considerations in the planning and execution of military activities. Colin Gray writes that “every military plan at every level of war is ruled by the clock.”
9/25 For the Ukrainians, they will be wargaming the best time to shift from a defensive strategy to an offensive one. This is a significant activity. It will require excellent intelligence on Russian reserves, combat potential, logistic holdings, and operational priorities.
10/25 Timing will also be driven by the level of attrition of Russian forces, weather (especially cloud obscuration), phases of the moon (darkness still matters) and progress of negotiations.
11/25 Timing for any Ukrainian offensive will also be influenced by how long it takes to concentrate the numbers of close combat, engineer support (the advance takes a lot of engineers), artillery support, air support, communications, logistics, psyops & EW, forces needed.
12/25 Location. The location of any offensive will be an important consideration. Which part of Ukraine offers the most potential for gains in territory for the Ukrainian forces that might be available? And where are significant concentrations of Russian forces located?
map ( https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1520587664604680192/photo/1 )
13/25 In essence, there are two macro locations where the Ukrainians might focus any future offensive – the east and the south. They may choose one or the other, both concurrently, or both sequentially. It will be influenced by operational design, which is the 3rd consideration.
14/25 Operational Design. Operational design is an important component of military professionalism. Through good operational design, commanders and their staffs’ sequence and orchestrate tactical goals and actions to meet strategic and political objectives.
15/25 A vital aspect of campaign design is the prioritization for allocation of forces, logistic support, intelligence, transport, and inter-service collaboration. At least in theory, campaigns should be largely joint rather than service oriented.
16/25 It is an art and a science that US schools such as the USMC School of Advanced Warfighting (SAW) and US Army School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) focus on. Full disclosure – I am a graduate of SAW, Class of 2003.
video 5:35 SAW ( https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1520587677258887168 )
17/25 For Ukraine, they will need a design that considers how many offensives at once, and how each consecutive advance is sequenced. This design considers main effort, supporting efforts, command and control and opportunities to exploit breakthroughs.
18/25 Any Ukrainian operational design would seek to avoid what the Russians have tried during their invasion – advance on multiple fronts simultaneously without an obvious main effort and little unity of effort. Good operational design will also underpin tactical mission command
19/25 A 4th consideration is resources. Offensive operations are hugely expensive in recon assets (to find, fix & kill the enemy), artillery, armour and mobility support (engineers), logistics and air support. Multitudes of each, combined in Brigades & Divisions, will be needed.
20/25 Strategic support will also be necessary. Ukrainian industry, and western aid donors, will be required to provide weapons, ammunition and other support for the current defensive campaign, as well as building up huge stocks for any offensive. Transport networks are critical.
21/25 Exploitation Limits. In offensive operations ‘limit of exploitation’ is a line beyond which military commanders may not exploit the success of earlier stages of attacks. Such a line will be needed for a Ukrainian offensive. And this won’t just be a military consideration.
22/25 This is probably one of the most difficult issues for a Ukrainian offensive. Do they seek to recapture ground taken by Russia since 24 February, or something less? Alternatively, do they consider recapturing Crimea, or the Donbas or both?
23/25 The Ukrainian President will seek a balance of reclaiming Ukrainian territory while retaining Western support & not pushing the Russians to use chemical / nuclear weapons. The limits of a Ukrainian military offensive will be governed by political & not just military issues.
24/25 Ukraine will also need to have objectives for a future offensive & the means to measure progress. This will be important for the Ukrainian President to decide on when to halt offensive operations at the time that delivers the best war termination outcome for his country.
25/25 This exploration is not based on any ‘inside info’. But it does provide an analysis of considerations for the Ukrainians to eventually recapture the territory seized by Russia. Which also poses the question: what if Russia loses? That is another thread...
Mick Ryan, AM strategist, Australian? Army General, retired) @WarintheFuture | 10:15 PM · Apr 30, 2022:
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1520587628793368576
...7/25 ...Can Ukraine go on the offensive in the east and what might that look like? In answering this, I will explore five issues: timing; location; design / sequencing; resources; & limits of Ukrainian exploitation.
8/25 Timing. In war, the clock is always ticking. The ability to exploit time is one of the most important considerations in the planning and execution of military activities. Colin Gray writes that “every military plan at every level of war is ruled by the clock.”
9/25 For the Ukrainians, they will be wargaming the best time to shift from a defensive strategy to an offensive one. This is a significant activity. It will require excellent intelligence on Russian reserves, combat potential, logistic holdings, and operational priorities.
10/25 Timing will also be driven by the level of attrition of Russian forces, weather (especially cloud obscuration), phases of the moon (darkness still matters) and progress of negotiations.
11/25 Timing for any Ukrainian offensive will also be influenced by how long it takes to concentrate the numbers of close combat, engineer support (the advance takes a lot of engineers), artillery support, air support, communications, logistics, psyops & EW, forces needed.
12/25 Location. The location of any offensive will be an important consideration. Which part of Ukraine offers the most potential for gains in territory for the Ukrainian forces that might be available? And where are significant concentrations of Russian forces located?
map ( https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1520587664604680192/photo/1 )
13/25 In essence, there are two macro locations where the Ukrainians might focus any future offensive – the east and the south. They may choose one or the other, both concurrently, or both sequentially. It will be influenced by operational design, which is the 3rd consideration.
14/25 Operational Design. Operational design is an important component of military professionalism. Through good operational design, commanders and their staffs’ sequence and orchestrate tactical goals and actions to meet strategic and political objectives.
15/25 A vital aspect of campaign design is the prioritization for allocation of forces, logistic support, intelligence, transport, and inter-service collaboration. At least in theory, campaigns should be largely joint rather than service oriented.
16/25 It is an art and a science that US schools such as the USMC School of Advanced Warfighting (SAW) and US Army School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) focus on. Full disclosure – I am a graduate of SAW, Class of 2003.
video 5:35 SAW ( https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1520587677258887168 )
17/25 For Ukraine, they will need a design that considers how many offensives at once, and how each consecutive advance is sequenced. This design considers main effort, supporting efforts, command and control and opportunities to exploit breakthroughs.
18/25 Any Ukrainian operational design would seek to avoid what the Russians have tried during their invasion – advance on multiple fronts simultaneously without an obvious main effort and little unity of effort. Good operational design will also underpin tactical mission command
19/25 A 4th consideration is resources. Offensive operations are hugely expensive in recon assets (to find, fix & kill the enemy), artillery, armour and mobility support (engineers), logistics and air support. Multitudes of each, combined in Brigades & Divisions, will be needed.
20/25 Strategic support will also be necessary. Ukrainian industry, and western aid donors, will be required to provide weapons, ammunition and other support for the current defensive campaign, as well as building up huge stocks for any offensive. Transport networks are critical.
21/25 Exploitation Limits. In offensive operations ‘limit of exploitation’ is a line beyond which military commanders may not exploit the success of earlier stages of attacks. Such a line will be needed for a Ukrainian offensive. And this won’t just be a military consideration.
22/25 This is probably one of the most difficult issues for a Ukrainian offensive. Do they seek to recapture ground taken by Russia since 24 February, or something less? Alternatively, do they consider recapturing Crimea, or the Donbas or both?
23/25 The Ukrainian President will seek a balance of reclaiming Ukrainian territory while retaining Western support & not pushing the Russians to use chemical / nuclear weapons. The limits of a Ukrainian military offensive will be governed by political & not just military issues.
24/25 Ukraine will also need to have objectives for a future offensive & the means to measure progress. This will be important for the Ukrainian President to decide on when to halt offensive operations at the time that delivers the best war termination outcome for his country.
25/25 This exploration is not based on any ‘inside info’. But it does provide an analysis of considerations for the Ukrainians to eventually recapture the territory seized by Russia. Which also poses the question: what if Russia loses? That is another thread...
130lriley
>127 margd: the Florida exiled Cuban vote that keeps Republicans in power?
131davidgn
>126 margd:
Reading the tea leaves:
Putin needs an unequivocal win, and badly needs sustainable supply lines to move on Odessa when the time comes. Moldova is, by most predictions, the sort of state that would fall over in a stiff breeze. Preoccupations of the Georgian author aside, I have a suspicion we're looking at scenario 1 from this piece a month ago. https://cepa.org/the-kremlins-next-targets-georgia-and-moldova/
A Russian general mobilization might allow a campaign to take and consolidate Moldova and move on Odessa in a pincer movement. At this point, it's my pet hunch. How quickly does Romania get drawn in then?
Reading the tea leaves:
Putin needs an unequivocal win, and badly needs sustainable supply lines to move on Odessa when the time comes. Moldova is, by most predictions, the sort of state that would fall over in a stiff breeze. Preoccupations of the Georgian author aside, I have a suspicion we're looking at scenario 1 from this piece a month ago. https://cepa.org/the-kremlins-next-targets-georgia-and-moldova/
In this scenario, Russia will attempt to wage a blitzkrieg in Moldova and/or Georgia. Stalemate or defeat in Ukraine will require soothing the public opinion in Russia, which is already starting to simmer with an anti-military sentiment. Moldova unwillingly hosts the Operational Group of Russian Troops (OGRT), in the self-declared region of Transnistria. The Kremlin has about 2,000 personnel in the country, ensuring it remains divided. While the force is regarded as second-rate, it could be reinforced from the Black Sea. Military options against Moldova proper (and its pro-Western government) could easily be explored. Moldova's capital Chisinau is a few dozen kilometers away from the Russian military base and within easy striking distance of the Black Sea coast. Airborne assault from the Black Sea is also a possibility, as it is implausible that Moldova will resist the invasion with its limited anti-air capabilities.
A Russian general mobilization might allow a campaign to take and consolidate Moldova and move on Odessa in a pincer movement. At this point, it's my pet hunch. How quickly does Romania get drawn in then?
132margd
>131 davidgn: Is Romania on other side of Carpathian mountains from Moldova? If so, Moldova might be obvious stopping point for RU? Except there's Transylvania in them thar hills, and surely Putin will want THAT? :/
133davidgn
>132 margd: Unfortunately the border is the Prut and the Danube. There's a good strip of Romanian territory before you hit the Carpathians, including the major city of Iași. https://en-us.topographic-map.com/maps/tl58/Moldova/
ETA: Was that a vampire joke?
ETA: Was that a vampire joke?
134davidgn
Richard Falk always has my ear.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/04/29/the-second-level-geopolitical-war-in-ukr...
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/04/29/the-second-level-geopolitical-war-in-ukr...
What has been apparent to critics for some time is that Western diplomacy has become primarily committed to second level Geopolitical War even at the cost of greatly prolonging and aggravating the Ukrainian war on the ground and producing growing risks of a wider war. Only in the past few days has this priority been more or less acknowledged by high officials in the U.S. Government, most dramatically in the visit of Antony Blinken, Secretary of State, and Austin, Secretary of Defense to Ukraine and later to meeting in Europe with their NATO counterparts. What was revealed was that the number one policy goal of the U.S. was ‘the weakening of Russia’ made a viable undertaking by the unexpected resistance capabilities of Ukrainian armed forces bolstered by a show of unified patriotic resolve. In keeping with this line of thinking, arms shipments to Ukraine were increased significantly, and more tellingly, overtly acknowledging the shipment of so-called heavy armaments with offensive capabilities. As this dynamic unfolded, Germany dramatically reversed its policy of not providing heavy weaponry, and the whole tenor of assistance was shifted from helping Ukraine resist to addressing the geopolitical agenda with its two goals: inflicting a humiliating defeat on Russia and signaling to China to not doubt Western resolve to defend Taiwan.
Despite this shift in emphasis, earlier concerns with escalating the Geopolitical War with Russia have not been abandoned, such as inducing situations that tempt the use of nuclear weapons. White House perceptions of what will cause such a temptation seem dangerous divergent. Apparently, the Biden presidency continues to oppose a No Fly Zone in Ukraine because it would greatly increase the prospects for direct combat encounters between NATO and Russia, and with it risks of this new species of cold war turning hot. But what of Biden’s demonization of Russia as guilty of genocide and Putin as a war criminal who should be driven from power. And what of the continuously increasing diplomatic, financial, and military assistance to Ukraine. What has been missing all along has been any indication by Washington of receptivity to a diplomacy emphasizing the primary humanitarian imperative of an immediate ceasefire and a political process of compromise and mutual security between Russia and Ukraine the overt international antagonists. It is missing because the U.S. commitment to the Geopolitical War takes precedence over the well-being of the Ukrainian people.
Zelensky early in the war indicated receptivity to a ceasefire and political compromise, including permanent neutrality for Ukraine, and signaled his willingness to meet with Putin. More recently, however, Zelensky has pulled back from this dual stance of armed resistance and peace diplomacy, and come to adopt a position seamless with that of the U.S. My conjecture is that Zelensky, although displaying great talents as a wartime resistance leader has very little sophistication about international relations in general, and seems susceptible to this more militarist line both by promises of decisive support from Washington and possible militarist advice from his own general staff. After all, Zelensky’s background is in theater and as a performing comedian without any signs that he is aware of the wider risks at stake if Ukraine goes along with the premises of the Geopolitical War.
As expected, Moscow has already reacted to this escalation of the second war with the warning that it will not back down, but will take all necessary steps to protect its national security interests, intimating a possible recourse to nuclear weapons. Such inflamed atmospherics can easily produce preemptive acts that accelerate escalation, which is especially serious in the current context that lacks crisis management links of the sort established between Moscow and Washington in the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis. It took that close encounter with an all out war scenario that led these superpower antagonists to understand that they had averted a monumental mutual catastrophe by sheer luck.
...
The UN Secretary General
Throughout the Ukraine crisis Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary General, has articulated a point of view toward the Ukraine Crisis that contrasts in fundamental ways from the positions taken by the political actors on the three levels of conflict. His words and proposals are much closer in spirit to the calls emanating from civil society and the Global South. He expressed the spirit of his endeavors concisely shortly after Russia attacked: “End the hostilities now. Silence the guns now. Open the door to dialogue and diplomacy.” “The ticking clock is a time bomb.”
Traveling to Moscow to meet with Putin and the Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, the message was the same: Focus on ways to end the war, and desist from carrying on the fight against Russia a day longer.
He told Lavrov that “We are extremely interested in finding ways to create the conditions for effective dialogue, create conditions for a ceasefire as soon as possible, create conditions for a peaceful solution.” Putin in their one-on-one meeting given the aggressiveness of his counterpart in Washington seemed guardedly receptive to allowing the UN and Red Cross to play a humanitarian role in Ukraine and seemed willing to seek a negotiated end to the conflict on the ground. Of course, it is premature to reach any assessment until deeds follow words, but we have yet to hear a comparable level of peace-mindedness in Biden’s public statements, which so far seem calculated to stir anti-Russian fury rather than to set the stage for ending this frightening multi-level conflict.
The stark difference between the UN SG’s approach and that of the geopolitical leadership of the world, should make many persons dedicated to a better future initiate a campaign to set the UN free from geopolitical primacy.
Conclusionary Observation
Unraveling the intertwined nature of these three levels of conflict bound up in the ambiguities of the Ukraine War is crucial for an understanding of its complexity and to analyze whether responses and proposals are of service to the general betterment of humanity. It also facilitates the identification of unresponsive policies and proposals. On this basis, I believe that two overriding assessments emerge: stop the killing by all means available and unconditionally repudiate the Geopolitical War.
135margd
>133 davidgn: Vlad the Putin... :(
500-strong NATO Response Force led by French sent to Romania in early March.
500-strong NATO Response Force led by French sent to Romania in early March.
136John5918
>134 davidgn: This report also makes reference to Richard Falk.
Ukraine: Stop the Carnage, Build the Peace! (Just World Educational)
Ukraine: Stop the Carnage, Build the Peace! (Just World Educational)
Policy Recommendations
1.Ukraine-wide ceasefire now!
2.An embargo on arms shipments into Ukraine by all countries.
3.Start negotiations now, involving all relevant parties, for a lasting peace arrangement for Ukraine, and commit to completion within six months.
4.Monitoring and verification of the ceasefire and arms embargo to be led by the United Nations and the OSCE, or any other party acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia.
5.Immediate aid for rebuilding in Ukraine, including for agriculture, ports, residential areas, and related systems.
6.Immediate international talks on implementation of 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, under which all signatory states including the United States and Russia committed to complete nuclear disarmament, and a call for all governments to support the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons .
7.Leaders of NATO countries should oppose all manifestations of Russophobia.
8.The United States should give up all efforts at regime change in Russia...
137davidgn
Top of my queue: Stratfor's George Friedman on Russia's second collapse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kr_iDUeFdb4&t=0s
Really starts about 5 mins in.
Heard a few minutes via https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA_3JlczTW4 ,
and very well done.
Really starts about 5 mins in.
Heard a few minutes via https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA_3JlczTW4 ,
and very well done.
138margd
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 2:55 PM · May 1, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
It's Sunday night in Russia which means that state TV's Dmitry Kiselyov is talking about Russia using its nukes
This time, with the help of a terrifying cartoon, he claims that "one Sarmat missile is enough to sink the British Isles" (with subs)
0:44 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1520839304062373892 )
--------------------------------------------------------------
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 3:23 PM · May 1, 2022:
And another nuclear threat to the UK from Russian state TV's Dmitry Kiselyov:
He says his country's Poseidon nuclear underwater drone could cause a tsunami that would "plunge the British Isles into the depths of the sea" and turn them into a "radioactive desert" (with subs)
0:46 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1520846423629213699 )
--------------------------------------------------------------
Jεss @Yangoliatko_ | Jεss @Yangoliatko_ | 2:06 PM · Apr 30, 2022
The moment a women in South Wales met the Ukrainian family she was taking in.
0:35 ( https://twitter.com/Yangoliatko_/status/1520464669386944512 )
🇺🇦🫶🏴
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
It's Sunday night in Russia which means that state TV's Dmitry Kiselyov is talking about Russia using its nukes
This time, with the help of a terrifying cartoon, he claims that "one Sarmat missile is enough to sink the British Isles" (with subs)
0:44 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1520839304062373892 )
--------------------------------------------------------------
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 3:23 PM · May 1, 2022:
And another nuclear threat to the UK from Russian state TV's Dmitry Kiselyov:
He says his country's Poseidon nuclear underwater drone could cause a tsunami that would "plunge the British Isles into the depths of the sea" and turn them into a "radioactive desert" (with subs)
0:46 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1520846423629213699 )
--------------------------------------------------------------
Jεss @Yangoliatko_ | Jεss @Yangoliatko_ | 2:06 PM · Apr 30, 2022
The moment a women in South Wales met the Ukrainian family she was taking in.
0:35 ( https://twitter.com/Yangoliatko_/status/1520464669386944512 )
🇺🇦🫶🏴
139margd
Patrick Reevell (ABC News) @Reevellp | 1:45 AM · Apr 30, 2022
Remarkable clip of Russian state TV propaganda show where one guest gently brings up Russia’s retreat from Kyiv and suggests it may need to negotiate to keep territory it holds now.
Everyone looks uneasy. One guest goes hysterical.
Host: “But that would be victory for Ukraine”…
2:20 ( https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1520278168556482561 )
Remarkable clip of Russian state TV propaganda show where one guest gently brings up Russia’s retreat from Kyiv and suggests it may need to negotiate to keep territory it holds now.
Everyone looks uneasy. One guest goes hysterical.
Host: “But that would be victory for Ukraine”…
2:20 ( https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1520278168556482561 )
140davidgn
This was the 20th of April at Brown's Watson Institute -- even before the escalation on the U.S. side was made clear. I've been following Prof. Michael T. Klare for over a decade, and I've never seen him this heated. He was, as he phrases it in the Q&A, "scared shitless" by the present situation. (https://youtu.be/UJKQu8bmwPs?t=4161 -- and he proceeds to almost lose it 10 minutes or so later in the Q&A, but the whole thing needs to be seen)
But watch the whole thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJKQu8bmwPs
https://watson.brown.edu/events/2022/will-invasion-ukraine-lead-nuclear-war-what...
But watch the whole thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJKQu8bmwPs
https://watson.brown.edu/events/2022/will-invasion-ukraine-lead-nuclear-war-what...
141margd
Ukrainians have shown they can out-think, out-influence and out-fight Russia. So what happens if Putin loses?
Mick Ryan | 5/3/2022
The Donbas problem and the nuclear option
...a Ukrainian counter offensive to retake territory captured by the Russians is a near certainty...If this Ukrainian counter offensive succeeds, it could push the Russians back to where they were on February 24 or even out of the Donbas or Crimea (although the latter is unlikely).
The impact on China and Xi's unpredictable reaction
A weakened Russia could also become a client state of China.
A Russian loss would upset President Xi's efforts to persuade other nations that there are other models of governance that work besides Western democratic models.
...it would also have an impact on Chinese aspirations for Taiwan
...setback to Xi's narrative about the decline of the west...Chinese President Xi Jinping has been reduced to a bystander
...Will Xi decide that a failed Russian invasion has too great an impact on China's global aspirations? And if so, is he willing to risk US sanctions to provide aid to Russia?
The delicate diplomatic reaction to Russia's possible defeat
...Russia would be a much weaker and poorer nation than it was on February
...likely...to be a much more embittered nation
...The 20th century has examples of the right ways and wrong ways to treat defeated nations. We must learn from these. Because, if the Russians are weakened too much in defeat, they may become a much more dangerous nation. And that is in none of our interests.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-03/war-ukraine-russia-donbas-nuclear-china-d...
*Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general, who remains in the reserves. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st century warfare.
Mick Ryan | 5/3/2022
The Donbas problem and the nuclear option
...a Ukrainian counter offensive to retake territory captured by the Russians is a near certainty...If this Ukrainian counter offensive succeeds, it could push the Russians back to where they were on February 24 or even out of the Donbas or Crimea (although the latter is unlikely).
The impact on China and Xi's unpredictable reaction
A weakened Russia could also become a client state of China.
A Russian loss would upset President Xi's efforts to persuade other nations that there are other models of governance that work besides Western democratic models.
...it would also have an impact on Chinese aspirations for Taiwan
...setback to Xi's narrative about the decline of the west...Chinese President Xi Jinping has been reduced to a bystander
...Will Xi decide that a failed Russian invasion has too great an impact on China's global aspirations? And if so, is he willing to risk US sanctions to provide aid to Russia?
The delicate diplomatic reaction to Russia's possible defeat
...Russia would be a much weaker and poorer nation than it was on February
...likely...to be a much more embittered nation
...The 20th century has examples of the right ways and wrong ways to treat defeated nations. We must learn from these. Because, if the Russians are weakened too much in defeat, they may become a much more dangerous nation. And that is in none of our interests.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-03/war-ukraine-russia-donbas-nuclear-china-d...
*Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general, who remains in the reserves. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st century warfare.
142John5918
>141 margd: what happens if Putin loses?
So much of the international rhetoric is around the zero sum concept of "winning" and "losing". As the strategist whom you quote points out, a Russian "loss", something which the USA appears to favour with its remarks about weakening Russia and degrading its military capabilities, could lead to an even more dangerous and unstable world. In fact everybody is losing, and the best result would be a negotiated settlement, not a "win" or "loss" to any party - I say "any" rather than "both" as there are clearly more than two parties involved in this conflict.
So much of the international rhetoric is around the zero sum concept of "winning" and "losing". As the strategist whom you quote points out, a Russian "loss", something which the USA appears to favour with its remarks about weakening Russia and degrading its military capabilities, could lead to an even more dangerous and unstable world. In fact everybody is losing, and the best result would be a negotiated settlement, not a "win" or "loss" to any party - I say "any" rather than "both" as there are clearly more than two parties involved in this conflict.
143margd
So deny Ukraine its sovereignty? Such support for Russian sensitivities is unexpected from a continent that's all too familiar with colonialism. Of course negotiation is desired end result, but track record of RU under Putin suggests it is highly unlikely to come to the table. Appeasement will only result in Putin's Russia moving on to next vulnerable target.
Ukraine's call.
Ukraine's call.
144John5918
>143 margd:
It's not about supporting "Russian sensitivities". It's about pointing out that more violence is neither the only nor often the most effective response to violence, and about challenging the knee-jerk short-termist militaristic obsession with "winning". The expert whom you yourself quote in >141 margd: points out the longer term dangers of Russia "losing". But as you say, it's Ukraine's call. I wonder if they will think they've won if their country is reduced to a nuclear wasteland?
As for how the continent of Africa sees it, non-aligned countries are all too familiar with western powers enforcing their will on third parties through military force, amongst other means, without the "international community" batting an eyelid, so they are somewhat bemused that there is such an outcry when Russia follows suit. What Russia is doing is wrong, and there is no doubt about that, just as the death and destruction which the USA and its allies have wreaked on many countries in recent decades was wrong, but the the argument should not be about who "wins" or "loses" but on how to stop the war - and how to do so in a manner that doesn't just leave it festering to break out again in a few years.
It's not about supporting "Russian sensitivities". It's about pointing out that more violence is neither the only nor often the most effective response to violence, and about challenging the knee-jerk short-termist militaristic obsession with "winning". The expert whom you yourself quote in >141 margd: points out the longer term dangers of Russia "losing". But as you say, it's Ukraine's call. I wonder if they will think they've won if their country is reduced to a nuclear wasteland?
As for how the continent of Africa sees it, non-aligned countries are all too familiar with western powers enforcing their will on third parties through military force, amongst other means, without the "international community" batting an eyelid, so they are somewhat bemused that there is such an outcry when Russia follows suit. What Russia is doing is wrong, and there is no doubt about that, just as the death and destruction which the USA and its allies have wreaked on many countries in recent decades was wrong, but the the argument should not be about who "wins" or "loses" but on how to stop the war - and how to do so in a manner that doesn't just leave it festering to break out again in a few years.
145margd
>144 John5918: the argument should not be about who "wins" or "loses" but on how to stop the war - and how to do so in a manner that doesn't just leave it festering to break out again in a few years.
We can agree on that.
As for Russophobia, Putin is a deeply evil man. And with all my reservations re western military actions, I deeply resent anybody equating the west with Putin's Russia.
We can agree on that.
As for Russophobia, Putin is a deeply evil man. And with all my reservations re western military actions, I deeply resent anybody equating the west with Putin's Russia.
146lriley
Just an opinion but this military adventurism of Putin’s has been an absolute disaster. Looking at it long term it’s not just what territories they may manage to capture but then afterwards it’s occupying those territories……..with a conscript army? far enough from home where supply lines will be extremely problematic for the almost certain insurgencies that will happen. With their economy sanctioned and breaking down with their inability to get spare parts or the electronics to keep their military machine working. It is difficult enough for them to maintain or jerryrig vital equipment. Tires disintegrating under their heavy machinery and vehicles…..and are they going to rebuild these cities they’ve captured? They have 1500 men in Transnistria—a narrow strip separating Moldova from a portion of western Ukraine. The Russians seem to want to link to that pro-Russian region by going through Odesa. They’ll probably lose thousands of soldiers attempting or accomplishing that. But really going further into Moldova or anywhere else only further stretches those supply lines—only exacerbates more the above issues. It’s demented because there is no endgame where this doesn’t turn into an even more colossal disaster. It’s stretching their logistics to a point where their logistics might not even exist anymore. The further they take things the worse for them it will get.
Putin’s spitting into a strong wind.
Putin’s spitting into a strong wind.
147John5918
>145 margd: I deeply resent anybody equating the west with Putin's Russia
That's probably because you don't live in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Panama, Grenada, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chile, Vietnam, Cambodia, Palestine, Cuba, etc, nor in countries which were colonies until well within our lifetimes. Actions by "the west" in some of those countries can indeed be equated to actions by Putin.
That's probably because you don't live in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Panama, Grenada, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chile, Vietnam, Cambodia, Palestine, Cuba, etc, nor in countries which were colonies until well within our lifetimes. Actions by "the west" in some of those countries can indeed be equated to actions by Putin.
148John5918
>146 lriley: this military adventurism of Putin’s has been an absolute disaster
Agreed, although I would broaden it and say all military adventurism is an absolute disaster.
Agreed, although I would broaden it and say all military adventurism is an absolute disaster.
149margd
>147 John5918: Women of Afghanistan, residents of Chechnyan capital Grozny, families of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, Crimean Tatars, Yazidi sex slaves, Georgians (per the European Court of Human Rights), and Ukrainians esp in Bucha and Mariupol would, I suspect prefer the West over the tender mercies of Putin's Russia.
I deeply resent anybody equating the west with Putin's Russia. Such an attitude is inconsistent BTW with the careful approach of Red Cross, UN Secretary General (bombed!), and the Pope.
I deeply resent anybody equating the west with Putin's Russia. Such an attitude is inconsistent BTW with the careful approach of Red Cross, UN Secretary General (bombed!), and the Pope.
150John5918
>149 margd:
Look, nobody denies that Putin is doing evil things, almost certainly illegal things. The groups you mention are no doubt right to prefer not to have to suffer under him, as once again I remind you that nobody is excusing Putin or denying that what he is doing is wrong. But do you really think western powers have not done equally bad things? Try reading up on colonial history - British atrocities during the Mau Mau in Kenya, French in Algeria, German in what is now Namibia, Belgian in Congo (have you read King Leopold's Ghost?) Look at the carnage in some of the countries I mentioned in >147 John5918:. Your resentment is your own personal problem, but the reality is that "the west" has committed atrocities and war crimes on a large scale, has largely got away with them, and indeed has largely kept them out of the public eye. At the same time it has to a large extent bank-rolled his corrupt regime in the name of capitalist profit in cities such as London. Do I need to repeat again that this doesn't excuse Putin? If I were the resentful type I suppose I would say that I resent a lot of the hypocrisy and double standards from "the west". Let me rather just say that I find it unhelpful, and I find turning a blind eye to it even more unhelpful. Violence and oppression are wrong no matter who the perpetrator is, and if we want to unravel the global system which has facilitated Putin's current misdeeds we need to understand and try to deal with all of that.
I would also say that in my experience of conflict transformation and peacebuilding it is also unhelpful to demonise an individual, a government or a people. It rarely brings peace and justice.
But clearly we are looking at this through different lenses.
Look, nobody denies that Putin is doing evil things, almost certainly illegal things. The groups you mention are no doubt right to prefer not to have to suffer under him, as once again I remind you that nobody is excusing Putin or denying that what he is doing is wrong. But do you really think western powers have not done equally bad things? Try reading up on colonial history - British atrocities during the Mau Mau in Kenya, French in Algeria, German in what is now Namibia, Belgian in Congo (have you read King Leopold's Ghost?) Look at the carnage in some of the countries I mentioned in >147 John5918:. Your resentment is your own personal problem, but the reality is that "the west" has committed atrocities and war crimes on a large scale, has largely got away with them, and indeed has largely kept them out of the public eye. At the same time it has to a large extent bank-rolled his corrupt regime in the name of capitalist profit in cities such as London. Do I need to repeat again that this doesn't excuse Putin? If I were the resentful type I suppose I would say that I resent a lot of the hypocrisy and double standards from "the west". Let me rather just say that I find it unhelpful, and I find turning a blind eye to it even more unhelpful. Violence and oppression are wrong no matter who the perpetrator is, and if we want to unravel the global system which has facilitated Putin's current misdeeds we need to understand and try to deal with all of that.
I would also say that in my experience of conflict transformation and peacebuilding it is also unhelpful to demonise an individual, a government or a people. It rarely brings peace and justice.
But clearly we are looking at this through different lenses.
151margd
Russia storms Mariupol plant as some evacuees reach safety
CARA ANNA and YESICA FISCH | 5/3/2022
...(101) Evacuees, a few of whom were in tears, made their way from the buses into a tent offering some of the comforts long denied them during their weeks underground, including hot food, diapers and connections to the outside world. Mothers fed small children. Some of the evacuees browsed racks of donated clothing, including new underwear.
The news for those left behind was more grim. Ukrainian commanders said Russian forces backed by tanks began storming the sprawling plant, which includes a maze of tunnels and bunkers spread out over 11 square kilometers (4 square miles).
How many Ukrainian fighters were holed up inside was unclear, but the Russians put the number at about 2,000 in recent weeks, and 500 were reported to be wounded. A few hundred civilians also remained there, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.
“We’ll do everything that’s possible to repel the assault, but we’re calling for urgent measures to evacuate the civilians that remain inside the plant and to bring them out safely,” Sviatoslav Palamar, deputy commander of Ukraine’s Azov Regiment, said on the messaging app Telegram...
He added that throughout the night, the plant was hit with naval artillery fire and airstrikes. Two civilian women were killed and 10 civilians wounded, he said.
The U.N.’s Lubrani expressed hope for further evacuations but said none had been worked out...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-donetsk-organization-f...
CARA ANNA and YESICA FISCH | 5/3/2022
...(101) Evacuees, a few of whom were in tears, made their way from the buses into a tent offering some of the comforts long denied them during their weeks underground, including hot food, diapers and connections to the outside world. Mothers fed small children. Some of the evacuees browsed racks of donated clothing, including new underwear.
The news for those left behind was more grim. Ukrainian commanders said Russian forces backed by tanks began storming the sprawling plant, which includes a maze of tunnels and bunkers spread out over 11 square kilometers (4 square miles).
How many Ukrainian fighters were holed up inside was unclear, but the Russians put the number at about 2,000 in recent weeks, and 500 were reported to be wounded. A few hundred civilians also remained there, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.
“We’ll do everything that’s possible to repel the assault, but we’re calling for urgent measures to evacuate the civilians that remain inside the plant and to bring them out safely,” Sviatoslav Palamar, deputy commander of Ukraine’s Azov Regiment, said on the messaging app Telegram...
He added that throughout the night, the plant was hit with naval artillery fire and airstrikes. Two civilian women were killed and 10 civilians wounded, he said.
The U.N.’s Lubrani expressed hope for further evacuations but said none had been worked out...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-donetsk-organization-f...
152John5918
Russian mercenaries behind Central African Republic atrocities - HRW (BBC)
Russian mercenaries have been accused of summarily executing, torturing and beating civilians in the Central African Republic (CAR). Witnesses told Human Rights Watch (HRW) that in one incident last July, Russian-speaking fighters shot dead at least 12 unarmed men at a roadblock. Most victims were put in a shallow hole by the road near Bossangoa, they said. CAR's government denies hiring mercenaries from the private Russian Wagner Group to fight rebels. UN experts have also accused Russian mercenaries of committing systematic and grave human rights violations in CAR, which is one of the world's poorest countries but is rich in diamonds, gold and uranium. The Wagner Group is widely reported to have deployed forces elsewhere in Africa - in Mali and Libya - and has played a major role in the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine. Last month, suspected Russian mercenaries were among those accused in a HRW report of executing about 300 people in central Mali...
153margd
You cannot unsee soldier's description of Russian torture in Ukraine as related to his mother(!), so read only if you need to... "Please be aware of extreme violence."
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is tasked with intelligence and espionage activities inside the Russian Federation, i.e., their own people!
Sergej Sumlenny @sumlenny | 4:13 AM · May 4, 2022:
Berlin-based 🇩🇪 Eastern Europe expert. 10+ yrs of work in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus. Former Director @boell_stiftung Kyiv (UA+BY)office. Speak 🇩🇪🇺🇦🇧🇾🇷🇺
Ukrainian army released a tapped phone call between a Russian soldier and his mother. The soldier describes excited how he tortured and killed Ukrainians, and says he enjoys mutilating people. I have translated the calls in this #THREAD* . Please be aware of extreme violence. /1
... /11
Link to the tapped call (the record is in the bottom of the article):
Перехоплення: росіянин зізнається, що насолоджується катуванням українців. Мати каже, що теж "кайфувала б"
Мазуренко Альона — Вівторок, 3 травня 2022, 21:42
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/05/3/7343820/
One need to say for those who were so shocked by the content, so the shock covered everything: it is a well-established state-organised system. It is not an "excess" of one or two sadists. It is organised by FSB secret police, like many torture camps before from Chechnya to Syria
* https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1521765064386170881
----------------------------------------------------------------
Шеогорат @4E_JL0BEDJL0 | 4:28 AM · May 4, 2022:
Another version of translation:
There is a 10 minute long video linked to the post. Its a recording of an intercepted phone call between a Russian soldier and his mother. The soldier, among other things, describes his mother the tortures conducted by Russian FSB (and abetted by him) over Ukrainian captives.
Show this thread*
* https://twitter.com/4E_JL0BEDJL0/status/1521768774839549953
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is tasked with intelligence and espionage activities inside the Russian Federation, i.e., their own people!
Sergej Sumlenny @sumlenny | 4:13 AM · May 4, 2022:
Berlin-based 🇩🇪 Eastern Europe expert. 10+ yrs of work in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus. Former Director @boell_stiftung Kyiv (UA+BY)office. Speak 🇩🇪🇺🇦🇧🇾🇷🇺
Ukrainian army released a tapped phone call between a Russian soldier and his mother. The soldier describes excited how he tortured and killed Ukrainians, and says he enjoys mutilating people. I have translated the calls in this #THREAD* . Please be aware of extreme violence. /1
... /11
Link to the tapped call (the record is in the bottom of the article):
Перехоплення: росіянин зізнається, що насолоджується катуванням українців. Мати каже, що теж "кайфувала б"
Мазуренко Альона — Вівторок, 3 травня 2022, 21:42
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/05/3/7343820/
One need to say for those who were so shocked by the content, so the shock covered everything: it is a well-established state-organised system. It is not an "excess" of one or two sadists. It is organised by FSB secret police, like many torture camps before from Chechnya to Syria
* https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1521765064386170881
----------------------------------------------------------------
Шеогорат @4E_JL0BEDJL0 | 4:28 AM · May 4, 2022:
Another version of translation:
There is a 10 minute long video linked to the post. Its a recording of an intercepted phone call between a Russian soldier and his mother. The soldier, among other things, describes his mother the tortures conducted by Russian FSB (and abetted by him) over Ukrainian captives.
Show this thread*
* https://twitter.com/4E_JL0BEDJL0/status/1521768774839549953
Dieses Thema wurde unter Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 7 weitergeführt.
