Auf ein Miniaturbild klicken, um zu Google Books zu gelangen.
Lädt ... Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best (Original 2010; 2012. Auflage)von Dan Gardner
Werk-InformationenFuture Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better von Dan Gardner (2010)
Lädt ...
Melde dich bei LibraryThing an um herauszufinden, ob du dieses Buch mögen würdest. Keine aktuelle Diskussion zu diesem Buch. Interesting and funny, this book delves into the world of expert predictions and human folly. It makes for an introspective view of the people I listen to in regards to current and future world events, and how I probably judge them more for their confidence and charm than their accuracy. Hindsight, confidence bias, memory; it all plays a part in how successful each expert and their adherents believe they are. Best quote: "Not one of them mentions that if they were as accurate as they are confident, they would be billionaires - and billionaires don't do talk shows." ( ) When I got this I thought it was going to be another trite pop criticism book but it was pretty good and an easy read. I would recommend this as an antidote for anyone who has a habit of revering public "experts" to such an extent that they elevate them to the level of infallible prophets. So many predictions by scientists and economists are paraded about as authoritative and so many good people are seduced by them that they stop thinking for themselves. This book forces one to step back from the apocalyptic fringe and look at things a little more rationally and with some historical context. keine Rezensionen | Rezension hinzufügen
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel,nbsp;experts said it would soon hit $200;nbsp;a few months later it plunged tonbsp;$30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future -- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate -- and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin.nbsp;Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. Keine Bibliotheksbeschreibungen gefunden. |
Aktuelle DiskussionenKeineBeliebte Umschlagbilder
Google Books — Lädt ... GenresMelvil Decimal System (DDC)303.4909Social sciences Social Sciences; Sociology and anthropology Social Processes Social change Social forecasts History and biographyKlassifikation der Library of Congress [LCC] (USA)BewertungDurchschnitt:
Bist das du?Werde ein LibraryThing-Autor. |