Quite good, but as I had just read a detailed history of WWII this book didn't add much for me in that regard. As for his thesis about the market picking the turning points in the war before they are spotted by pundits... it's all very well but of no practical use if you are in the situation because at that time you don't know the market is in the process of reversing and will not see those lows again. The distinction on the wisdom of crowds as distinct from the mob was almost interesting.. The best part of the book was in the closing chapters with his observations about the protection of wealth against extreme adversity and the warning that you never know when it may come... ( )

Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Historical Support for the Wisdom of Crowds
Wealth, War & Wisdom
by Barton Biggs
Hardcover: 358 pages
Publisher: Wiley (February 4, 2008)
ISBN-10: 0470223073
ISBN-13: 978-0470223079
Rating – 5 stars
It is an age-old notion. The investing public provides liquidity to the “smart money.” A mainstay on every investor’s bookshelf, Charles Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, argues “men … think in herds.”

Barton Biggs, former chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley before leaving in 2003 to form hedge fund Traxis Partners, questions this conventional and prejorative notion in Wealth, War & Wisdom. Using World War II as a backdrop, he shows the equity markets in the United States, Britain, Germany and Japan identified the conflict’s turning points with uncanny precision.

The stock market, he argues, represents the collective conclusion of multiple motivated judgment of a diverse, independent and decentralized sample. He joins James Surowiecki in The Wisdom of Crowds and Michael Maubossian in More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, to plead a powerful case for paying attention to the markets’ underlying message.

Biggs is no historian. He is, however, well-read and a deep thinker. He weaves military history, market action, maps and charts to illustrate his moral. Hardly radical, it is detailed and convincingly argued: A long-term strategy is the best way for ordinary investors to build and maintain wealth.

This is a book every serious investor should read and ponder. It is an original, absorbing and thought-provoking primer on wealth creation. Today’s actions aggregated with others provide powerful clues to your financial future.

Penned by the Pointed Pundit
June 25, 2008
9:58:40 AM ( )

World War II through the eyes of the stock market

The message this book conveys would have been better served if it was written as a collaboration between Mr. Biggs, a WWII historian, and an economist. Mr. Biggs, although he is a WWII enthusiast, and very successful businessman, is writing from his viewpoint, as do all authors, but with such extensive ground covered in only a few hundred pages I feel the book needs better organization, clarity, direction, and further development of his thesis.

If I could have given this book 3 ½ stars I would have in a heartbeat. The book is not deserving of 4 stars based upon the lack of glossary, lack of organization, and the mix of mediocre and outstanding writing. At times the book reads like a historical account of World War II, and at other times economics are discussed but often abruptly introduced as if the author realized he needed to momentarily throw in some economic data before continuing.

I found myself in both agreement and understanding of the authors message, and I know there was a lot of ground to cover in the book, and perhaps that is the reason for the choppiness. Twice in the book Mr. Biggs says, "whatever that means" and as a reader, I would expect that if he introduces a term that at least he would know what it meant and explain it to the readers. I thought that was sloppy writing and he would have been better off just leaving something out if he doesn't know what it means. Also once he uses his own company as his information source.

I enjoyed the historical quips, and found Winston Churchill to have a very impressive wit all throughout the book. I also learned more about Hitler as a person that I had previously known. It was fascinating to see the personal side of these and other warring leaders.

Although most of the book was predictable as far as wealth retention and distribution during the war and post-war, I was very surprised to learn the lessons of the Japanese real estate market post war. I was also encouraged by what I read especially regarding the way most stock markets were open and conducting business despite a brutal war.

I hope to see a 2nd edition of this book in the near future. It would be interesting to see a couple hundred pages added that would provide more depth and explanation than is currently presented. In a nutshell, this book follows the development of World War II including key battles, economic conditions, and the leaders decisions and ties those events to the affected stock markets in order to show that group think is a true and accurate predictor much more so than individual financial experts. ( )

Barton Biggs was a financial market analyst and strategist with Morgan Stanley for thirty years and is a self-proclaimed World War II enthusiast. Most of this book is an overview of Soviet, German, and Japanese aggression from 1929-1945 and how these events impacted each of the major countries economic condition. He tries to convince us that those who were actively trading in the market during these times were able to accurately determine the turning points in the war for each country before any one who worked in news media, the respective governments or the military. Though he also points out how two countries investors were completely wrong in their investment choices. I felt an underlying desire that the author is trying to be authoritative on how to preserve wealth during times of crisis. Note: I would not use this book in any form as a reference.

This book is somewhat interesting yet naive look at the war years and their affect on wealth. It seems as if he chose his view of history. For example most professional historians write that Pearl Harbor was not an unexpected attack. The book gives us insights at how Mr. Biggs see the correlation of the world events and the great foresight of investors. The author only states the obvious in this book as it comes to the equity markets in countries that win or lose a war. The winning countries always have a reasonably good chance of preserving wealth while the vanquished ones do not. His solutions are also obvious, and ones that the wealthy have always tried to do in times of turmoil. Move money offshore when possible and make sure you have a source for obtaining food and clothing.

I was expecting to read a book that had true research performed. This book is only the authors' own views on the period and on how to preserve wealth in what may be an upcoming turmoil. It is shown that most of the time land would preserve wealth in most countries over time. His suggestion is to buy a remote self-sufficient farm. And from history you would take the rest of your wealth and buy gold or jewelry and bury it like they did in France. He leaves us with a choice of a self made sanctuary or roving around as part of a marauding band seeking food. ( )