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Future Quartet: Earth in the Year 2042: A Four-Part Invention (1994)

von Ben Bova

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"What awaits our children and grandchildren half a century hence? Will their America be a paradise of plenty - a crime and pollution-free high-tech Eden? Or will the greed and shortsighted excess of our present time beget misery and despair - dooming future generations for centuries to come?" "These are the questions posed to four of our most respected and prescient speculators on the future-possible - the award-winning giants in the field of science fiction: Ben Bova, Frederik Pohl, Jerry Pournelle, and Charles Sheffield. Basing his projections on current technological, scientific, environmental and biomedical forecasts, each author offers a unique, startling and eminently probable overview of tomorrow - and then brings his posited world to remarkable life in a related masterwork of short fiction." "From the utopian to the dystopian - from the guardedly optimistic to the pessimistically hopeful - here are four radically different, yet equally viable visions of the near-future." "Stroll with an aimless vagabond through Frederik Pohl's terrifying Third World America - and into a rich man's impossible dream of space flight. Get a taste of the good life from Charles Sheffield - while learning the tragically high cost of civilization. Experience the grim realities of day-to-day living in Ben Bova's crumbling city of disposable people - and take a grand tour through "Higher Education"...with reservations." "A dream, a nightmare...or a combination of the two, the future will be whatever we make of it. And now you hold that future in your hands."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved… (mehr)
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My reaction to reading this collection in 1995. Spoilers follow.

“Introduction”, Charles Sheffield -- Introduction to anthology that relates origin of project and that each of four authors (Ben Bova, Frederik Pohl, Jerry Pournelle, Charles Sheffield) was assigned a perspective ranging from utopian to dystopian. There is also an interesting list of technologies and sociopolitical events and problems not considered by futurists of 50 years ago.

“2042: A Cautiously Pessimistic View”, Ben Bova -- Bova’s futuristic speculations related in fictional form as an address by Chiblum C. Lee, Chairman of the World Council. Bova postulates a world of climate change from global warming (desertification and famine), cheap energy (fusion and solar power satellites), aquaculture, and deep-sea mining where space is starting to be exploited. However, it is also a world of over ten billion people with a large gap between rich and poor countries. Lee proposes taxing rich countries to better the lot of poor countries (The old foreign aid scheme which doesn’t work now because poor countries are poor through internal political and social problems.) He realizes that the rich countries must see this to be in their self-interest, that coercion will not work and that vested interest will resist change. Nothing real new here. I thought Bova was more conservative and had faith in free markets as the tool to enrichments.

“The Kingdom Come”, Ben Bova -- An alright story narrated in first person and a take-off on Bova’s “2042: A Cautiously Pessimistic View” before it in the anthology. It involves protagonist Salvatore Passalacqua from the grim inner city of Philadelphia and his prostitute girlfriend (an unrequited love). Both don’t legally exist, and both get involved in a plot to take World Chairman Lee hostage. This is a pretty standard sf tale of a poor, violent future urban America with only a few points of interest. First, Passalacqua is an electronics genius. Second, the terrorists kidnapping Lee are not entirely bad. They want the World Council to depose dictators in their own countries, but the World Council refuses to interfere with nations’ internal affairs. Third, the Controllers who are accused of all sorts of things throughout the story but seem to be a branch of the Conttolers who help certain individuals out of poverty via education. Lastly, Passalacqua rejects a world of interconnectedness, a world where the poor can be helped and things changed. In a plot contrary to the usual poor-person-given-the-chance-at-betterment-accidentally-and-taking-it plot, he rejects his chance at education and returns to die in Philadelphia (it’s presumed). His girlfriend takes her chance, though, and studies law.

“A Visit to Belindia”, Frederik Pohl -- As Pohl says, he was given the most pessimistic future forecast, so his particular vision of the future can be partially excused as being dictated by formula. However, much of the vision is Pohl’s personal views especially the world plagued by ozone destruction and global warming. However, I agree with his concerns about aquifer depletion. Though that problem could be solved, albeit at great expense, with water de-salinization technology. Some of the worries cited are straight out of yesterday’s headlines: the idea that corporate mergers are bad, hurt economic efficiency, and drain R&D. As Pohl admits, this is a pessimistic, straight-line extrapolation of current trends with no assumption of social/political change and little technological change (except in medicine) and little questioning whether these trends (like global warming) actually exist to be extrapolated. Still, it’s a witty piece since it’s a story about a man revived from cryonic suspension with a zinger ending where he’s dumped without money (it all went for his medical care.) on to the poor streets of Belindia. Belindia, a term originally used for Brazil, is a description of two countries occupying the same space: a Belgium-like country of rich people and an Indian-like country of many more people.

“What Dreams Remain”, Frederik Pohl -- A story of bitter wit. Pohl starts his story with a setup that his fellow anthology contributors Ben Bova and Jerry Pournelle might use: a grim future of economic depression, ozone depletion, greenhouse warming, the rich huddled in “Reservations”, resource shortages (not only minerals and food but spare parts), and space travel crippled by low Earth orbit debris. Jake Bailey, story’s protagonist, is recruited by a very rich tycoon who runs a secret underground of space enthusiasts (both those who remember the age of space and young people attracted to the memory of those days). To keep alive this remaining dream of space travel, of L-5 colonies and mining space for minerals, the tycoon Parkinson spends a lot of money and also steals “strategic resources”. In other hands, Bailey would be converted to the cause of space as man’s salvation and the story would end with a successful space launch and the dawn of a better age. Not here. Bailey is a down on his luck electrical engineer who knows what people want to hear and says it whether it's to get sex or a place in a Reservation. He betrays Parkinson as a resource thief and, with the reward, buys himself a place in the Reservation. It’s not that Pohl is unsympathetic to the benefits of space. He lists weather satellites as a benefit of the vanished space age. However, the story is told from Bailey’s viewpoint, and he sees a generation of older people who destroyed the world and who are not squandering the remaining resources on an impractical dream (a ruthlessly enforced dream since, after having the space underground revealed to him, he would have been killed if he hadn’t joined.) to restore the space age. Plot and theme similar to C. M. Kornbluth’s “The Luckiest Man in Denv”. If Bova or Pournelle had written the story, the problem would be overcome by clever engineering. It’s not only a clever commentary on the romantic space travel myth of sf, but also a commentary on how even practical solutions to problems (if Parkinson’s schemes are that) can be sabotaged by political and social perceptions.

“Report on Planet Earth”, Charles Sheffield -- A plausibly utopian story with a lot of standard technological solutions to contemporary problems (along with help from Earth’s homeostatic climate to buffer against climate change). I thought the most novel notion here was the idea that, under computer directed production, products could be individually tailored on the assembly line.

“The Price of Civilization”, Charles Sheffield

“Democracy in America in the Year 2042”, Jerry Pournelle -- One of the reasons I like Pournelle is that his view is of man’s future is much like mine: technological optimism (he convincingly argues we will be able to solve the problems of food, energy, and minerals) with social, political, and moral pessimism. He knows that the real work of engineering a desirable society lies in the irrational realm of human behavior, the spheres of government and religion. Here (in a 1992 essay) he is pessimistic about an America plagued by a Congress of low turnover, violent teenagers, bad education, and vindictive politicians.

“Higher Education”, Jerry Pournelle and Charles Sheffield -- A Heinleinesque tale (appropriate given that Pournelle was a friend of Heinlein and modeled his writing on him) about a young man finding his way in the world through the hard, rigorous instruction of adults who (as Johnny Rico’s civics teacher in Heinlein’s Starship Troopers) are not what they appear to be. Here the world is an exaggerated debacle of public schools with sexual harassment laws, readers (machines that read text aloud since few students know how to learn), video surveillance, and condom dispensers. A bored, bright, cynical, amoral, ignorant boy must learn to survive as a space worker. There is some indication that there may be a sequel involving a cabal infiltrating the nightmare schools of a future America to reform or destroy them. It’s a good moral tale and political satire but a not particularly plausible story. Why would space corporations bother educating public school students when private students exist? What about Earth’s other countries? Granted it is hinted that other corporations educate students of their workers to get the necessary skills, and other countries exploit space. However, this is, after all, an anthology about America in 2042. ( )
  RandyStafford | May 15, 2013 |
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"What awaits our children and grandchildren half a century hence? Will their America be a paradise of plenty - a crime and pollution-free high-tech Eden? Or will the greed and shortsighted excess of our present time beget misery and despair - dooming future generations for centuries to come?" "These are the questions posed to four of our most respected and prescient speculators on the future-possible - the award-winning giants in the field of science fiction: Ben Bova, Frederik Pohl, Jerry Pournelle, and Charles Sheffield. Basing his projections on current technological, scientific, environmental and biomedical forecasts, each author offers a unique, startling and eminently probable overview of tomorrow - and then brings his posited world to remarkable life in a related masterwork of short fiction." "From the utopian to the dystopian - from the guardedly optimistic to the pessimistically hopeful - here are four radically different, yet equally viable visions of the near-future." "Stroll with an aimless vagabond through Frederik Pohl's terrifying Third World America - and into a rich man's impossible dream of space flight. Get a taste of the good life from Charles Sheffield - while learning the tragically high cost of civilization. Experience the grim realities of day-to-day living in Ben Bova's crumbling city of disposable people - and take a grand tour through "Higher Education"...with reservations." "A dream, a nightmare...or a combination of the two, the future will be whatever we make of it. And now you hold that future in your hands."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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