Concise and dense. It's a compilation of evidence based advice from Charlie Munger, Gladwell, Tim Ferriss, and others. The key is to think holistically about your decisions and be aware of cognitive biases. ( )

As other reviewers have noted there are better treatments available since the writing of this book. There are some practical tips but they are quite wordy and not organised in a fashion that is easy to implement overall. I wish there was a good summary of action items to help you use some of the ideas in an easier way. It is however an interesting read. ( )

Mauboussin Scores Again

Think Twice
by Michael Mauboussin
Hardcover: 204 pages
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press (October 12, 2009)
ISBN-10: 1422176754
ISBN-13: 978-1422176757

Making a decision is difficult. For business leaders and investors making a correct one is even more difficult.

In his latest book, Think Twice: Harnessing the power of Counterintuition, Michael Mauboussin reviews 8 common behavioral decision mistakes. He notes there are three elements to the outcome of every decision: your
1. Thought process,
2. Actions,
3. Luck.

Difficult decisions involve an element of uncertainty; outcomes can only be expressed as probabilities. More often these decisions require action before complete information can be assembled. Using a combination of science, psychology and case studies, Mauboussin discusses the consequences of:
1. Inside; Outside Thinking
2. Tunnel Vision
3. Uncritical Reliance on Experts
4. Context
5. The Pitfalls of Understanding Complex Systems on the Wrong Level
6. Predicting Cause and Effect
7. Small Perturbations during Phase Transitions
8. Skill and Luck

The author admits his book contains little that is new. I would posit, however, that one cannot consider and think about these concepts enough. After all, as the author points out, the most important letters in his title are T-H-I-N_ __ I-C-E. That observation alone underscores his book’s value.

Mauboussin’s strength is his ability to weave complexities into a provocative and easily read essay. The combination results in a book that should reside on every investor’s desk. ( )