Harry S. DentRezensionen

This gets a four star endorsement. I'm not sure I'm 100% behind everything laid out by Dent. I'm bothered by the sometimes misaligned years he gives for the next market crash. It's late 2009, then it's early 2010 or it's 2012-14. But, that doesn't undermine the book in full for me. I like that he's hanging his predictions out there and much of the reasoning is sound. I've always been a skeptic and this book feeds into that; so I was an easy sell. What I really enjoyed was the chapter on what level risk we REALLY take when putting our cash into the market. It IS far higher than we will let ourselves believe. THAT's the danger to investing. I also liked the tip on purchasing SH to profit on a decline without buying on margin. It also makes a nice hedge if you want to keep your money in market. I'm following the author's advice for now and the next 6-9 months. If he's right, I'll be VERY happy. If not, I can adjust easily. Worth reading but be prepared: I'm not an economist, statistician, or financial adviser, but I'm fairly versed in these areas from lot's of independent reading; so while the material is not over the top, there is no time spent explaining many terms or concepts to readers. You either know it or figure it out as you go.

When the current presidential administration was handed a debt-based non-free market economy, an unelected group of people controlling the U.S. central bank, interest rates and currency debasement decided they would not do what Iceland did; they would continue to manufacture demand for the world's (current) reserve currency, and manufacture employment, consumer spending and inflation data by massaging figures to achieve desired media bites.

Dent refers to demographics almost exclusively, and as such does not show trends within context of other factors mentioned above. Some individual behaviours that are true across a number of individuals (such as when a person will spend most on a certain type of potato chip) can seldom be extrapolated to societal behaviours. Most average boomers will continue working to achieve a decent standard of living in the United States. This is true in Japan and parts of Europe, and especially true in countries who have not created a national mandatory pension contribution system managed by a government body.

I agree the number of people retiring in the United States will appear to accelerate, but Dent does not account for the return to work of those same people, especially since many had signed up for forty-plus years of mortgage debt. A large number of young and old people will not be qualified to hold any gainful employment due to the role of technology in productivity improvements. I would give a higher rating for The Demographic Cliff if the author focused on demographic and specialized sector trends that accurately report or forecast areas of the economy where individuals are able to sustain employment, and what skills and abilities they possess, over the next twenty years.

The next two decades will definitely be challenging, but I believe the author's forecasts are not based on a full picture.½

The biggest political scandal in American history changed a lot of lives---a few for the better. By God's grace good things still flow from Watergate.

This book will give you many interesting things to consider as you plan your investing strategy for the coming years. The demographic trends provide a glimpse into the future, and I believe he is on the right track. I wouldn't take anything as absolute, and adjustments will need to be made, but this is a start. Overall, I found it to be thought provoking about the possibilities ahead.The book also provides a web page where you can sign up for an email newsletter for updates as the economic conditions change.

Primer for parents and educators who wish to nurture valid character traits by confronting the today's issues head-on.

Points out current problems in America and offers answers for getting the country back on the right track.

Predictions on the next great economic boom and bust.

As a 53 year old, I am might beginning my doom and gloom faze. This book is full of bad news. The most postive quote: "In 2009, the U.S. will enter its worst economy since the Great Depression. A false starttoward recovery will bloom late in the year, but inflation, interest rates and sharply rising oil/commodity prices will nip it in the bud. Two “bubble booms” will end: the free-spending Baby Boom, and the oil and commodity boom. Deflation in equities, real estate and commodities will continue into the 2020s."