Mark Spitznagel

Most of this book is about warfare, philosophy, botany, and Austrian economics history, but it teaches lessons throughout. All of that is a foundation laid for the ninth and tenth chapters, which (finally) describe investment strategy based on the principles of a rational school of economics -- economics as deduced by the efforts of rational theorists. As the book explains, the basis of the Austrian school of economics was sufficiently well established for one of its principal figures, Ludwig von Mises, to foresee the Great Depression and come out ahead, while every other prominent economist and finance professional of the time that comes to mind took a bath in its fallout.

Some of those who lost learned important lessons. Others invented new theories of economics that have won widespread respect, despite the fact they essentially did nothing more than declare impenetrable mysteries (often easily resolved by applying the principles of Austrian economic theory), revive the dying traditions of German economic historicism, and perform the economic statistical equivalent of reading tea leaves. Yes, I'm looking at you, Lord John Maynard Keynes.

On the path from Lao Tzu to Austrian economic theory as we know it today, via pinecones, Sun Tzu, Carl von Clausewitz, and a variety of other stops (and continued visits to coniferous forests where we find those pinecones), Mark Spitznagel renders a rich and colorful portrait of knowledge about the conditions of capital investment today under the yoke of governmental micromanagement. Amongst all this, he highlights the salient facts just under our noses (and those of everyone else) all along, but mostly ignored by almost everyone, and extracts the surprisingly simple truth of how to profit from the blindness of those who refuse to see it (and perhaps push a bit of money in the direction of those who most efficiently generate the wealth we enjoy while you're at it).

As something of a taoist, pragmatic rationalist, philosopher, and self-directed student of Austrian economics myself, it should come as no surprise that

The author regularly exhorts us to take a roundabout path, going with the flow of the twisting watercourse way with purposeful inaction, retreating to win ground. As something of a taoist, pragmatic rationalist, philosopher, and self-directed student of Austrian economics myself, it should come as no surprise that this resonates with me. The author's principles-based approach to determining how to work around the damage done by economic distortions of market meddling by central banks served as a refinement and clarification of my own thinking on how best to position my assets in patient but determined pursuit of compounding profits for future benefit, more than as wholly new revelation to me. The tour of the author's in-depth thinking through all the material in the book fascinated, rather than bored, me. Your mileage may vary.

As with various words of his I have encountered online, Mark Spitznagel's book gets a bit long-winded and (appropriately enough, given his focus on roundabout paths to profit) circuitous, but it should reward the patient and interested reader well. All of this really does aid in understanding the actual investment strategies described in the end of a book somewhat longer than I expected when I set out to find it.

I made copious notes, including some about other books I should read, whose authors get a mention in this work. I plan to review those notes and perhaps do some writing of my own about what insights I had along the way, maybe after reading one or two of those other books the author mentioned (though I have some short essay material already scribbled out late in the night after reading and thinking well past when I should have gone to sleep).

I believe it is worth far more than the time invested in reading it, and thinking about it, even before making use of the strategic advice he offers. I've already profited.… (mehr)

Por un lado, es un libro muy interesante sobre la inversión a largo plazo, que aprovecha la urgencia de los demás para entrar en posiciones. El objetivo principal del inversor "daoísta" no es el beneficio inmediato sino el aprovechamiento de condiciones favorables a medio y largo plazo.
El autor fue compañero de Nassim Nicolas Taleb durante varios años y comparte con él gran parte d su filosofía de inversión.
Como gran fallo, el libro mete historias de filósofos antiguos y de batallas milenarias cada dos por tres. Repite el concepto de roundaboutness unas 2000 veces (roundaboutness es la aproximación no directa a las efectos que se quieren conseguir). Toda la filosofía de inversión se puede resumir en 20 páginas, sobradamente. Las otras 280 son paja.
Entretenido por momentos y con partes aprovechables, pero muy poco eficiente.… (mehr)