Auf ein Miniaturbild klicken, um zu Google Books zu gelangen.
|
Lädt ... The Cunning of Uncertaintyvon Helga Nowotny
   Keine Keine aktuelle Diskussion zu diesem Buch.  DavidWineberg | Dec 6, 2015 |  keine Rezensionen | Rezension hinzufügen
Uncertainty is interwoven into human existence. It is a powerful incentive in the search for knowledge and an inherent component of scientific research. We have developed many ways of coping with uncertainty. We make promises, manage risks and make predictions to try to clear the mists and predict ahead. But the future is inherently uncertain - and the mist that shrouds our path an inherent part of our journey. The burning question is whether our societies can face up to uncertainty, learn to embrace it and whether we can open up to a constantly evolving future. In this new book, Helga Nowotny shows how research can thrive at the cusp of uncertainty. Science, she argues, can eventually transform uncertainty into certainty, but into certainty which remains always provisional. Uncertainty is never completely static. It is constantly evolving. It encompasses geological time scales and, at the level of human experience, split-second changes as cells divide. Life and death decisions are taken in the blink of the eye, while human interactions with the natural environment may reveal their impact over millennia. Uncertainty is cunning. It appears at unexpected moments, it shuns the straight line, takes the oblique route and sometimes the unexpected short-cut. As we acknowledge the cunning of uncertainty, its threats retreat. We accept that any scientific inquiry must produce results that are provisional and uncertain. This message is vital for politicians and policy-makers: do not be tempted by small, short-term, controllable gains to the exclusion of uncertain, high-gain opportunities. Wide-ranging in its use of examples and enriched by the author's experience as President of the European Research Council, one of the world's leading funding organisations for fundamental research. The Cunning of Uncertainty is a must-read for students and scholars of all disciplines, politicians, policy-makers and anyone concerned with the fundamental role of knowledge and science in our societies today. Keine Bibliotheksbeschreibungen gefunden. |
Aktuelle DiskussionenKeineBeliebte Umschlagbilder 
 Google Books — Lädt ...GenresMelvil Decimal System (DDC)121.63Philosophy and Psychology Philosophy Of Humanity Epistemology Belief Certainty and probabilityKlassifikation der Library of Congress [LCC] (USA)BewertungDurchschnitt: (3.5)
Bist das du?Werde ein LibraryThing-Autor. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1
Along the way, Nowotny treats us to a tour of societal complexity. Everything we discover or invent ups the level of uncertainty. Far from answering eternal questions, our knowledge continually puts more and more topics deeper into the realm of uncertainty. From genetics to the Big Bang to the magic of derivatives in the global economy, everything is far more uncertain today. And will be more uncertain tomorrow.
In a survey of predictability, she spends a lot of time on stats. Big Data takes our obsession about individuality and personalization and spits out numbers that account for our actions with horrifying accuracy. It turns out we don’t have to drive ourselves crazy understanding the why. All we need understand is the what, and correct predictions will follow. Risk management is control of control of the system. From sensors signaling wear and tear to security warnings everywhere, we try to narrow the range of activity to be predictable as the systems reach levels of complexity never considered. It doesn’t help that humans are terrible at assessing risk. We drive our children everywhere to avoid abduction, when the odds of dying in a car accident are immensely greater. We buy high and sell low, and don’t know when to treat a friend like a friend and an opponent like an opponent.
Nowotny likes to say there is only one certainty – death. But there is another – uncertainty. The only thing certain is change, and even death is just a component of change.
The book comes to no conclusion, leaves none the wiser about how to deal with life, the universe and everything, or even how to comport ourselves within it. It can all be boiled down to an old saying: Man plans, God laughs. The Cunning of Certainty makes no progress from there.
David Wineberg (