ABSTRACT:
Using test results from the operation of parabolic dish modules and the background gained in fabrication of these test modules, a techno-economic assessment of parabolic dish technology is made. Tests encompass dish modules employing organic-Rankine, Stirling, and Brayton engines. These tests indicate that early modules achieve efficiencies of 15 to 25% in converting sunlight to net-delivered electricity. Evolutionary improvements include: (1) conversion efficiency and operation and maintenance resulting from technology development activities already underway; and (2) cost reductions, due to design improvements of dish concentrators that parallel the advances made in heliostats for central receivers. These improvements are used as the basis for projecting future production module characteristics; that is, module costs determined as a function of production volume. Considering markets of isolated loads, small community power systems, and central power stations in conjunction with financing arrangements representative of municipal utilities, investor-owned utilities, and third-party investors, a value analysis is employed to determine breakeven costs for dish systems. The achievement of these breakeven costs is associated with establishing a level of production for the projected dish modules that will reduce costs to the breakeven value. If fossil fuel prices escalate to the upper bound limit of projections made in 1983, breakeven values are achieved for the most advanced systems projected on the basis of evolutionary development. If such upper bound fuel-price escalations occur, the assessment indicates that these markets represent potential opportunities which can be exploited through evolutionary development of the parabolic dish modules that are currently in the test and evaluation stage. When the nominal or intermediate projections made in 1983 for fuel-price escalations are used, results indicate that further major advances in technology leading to considerably higher performance and lower costs will be needed to penetrate all but the least competitive markets.