ABSTRACT:
This paper determines the cost of energy produced by new power plants for different regions in the United States, for different sizes of coal plants and an 8 MW oil-fired diesel. It also estimates the cost of energy produced by parabolic dish electric power plants for first and second generation system technology. Comparing the levelized busbar energy cost of solar thermal with those of conventional power systems for the next 20 years, the production level necessary f0r solar thermal energy systems to compete with various forms of conventional energy was determined. As expected in this analysis, there are many uncertainties in estimating the cost of solar and conventional energy. In future work, the study should focus on regionalizing the solar thermal analysis and looking more closely at probabilistic cost ranges. No doubt the assessment of market potential for solar thermal systems and the impact of expected demand upon estimated supply is needed in order to arrive at more realistic cost goals. Also, the BBEC is an aggregate measure of the cost, thus a different methodology which could incorporate fuel displacement as well as capacity credits and social variables should be considered. Despite these uncertainties, the initial results look promising for the development of solar thermal power systems for isolated regions in the near future and for grid connected utilities in regions with relatively high levels .of insolation in the mid 1990s.